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Blow to US Democracy -Split from: U.S. presidential election modelling


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12 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

One more day and Trump will no longer be a useful idiot of the GOP,

I'm not sure if D Trump was the useful idiot of the GOP, or if the GOP were D Trump's useful idiots.

Those people in INow's photos are there for D Trump, not the GOP.
If anything, he seems to have fractured the GOP into the group that wants to cut him loose ( including M McConnell now ), and those who cling to his coat tails in the faint hope of retaining power ( no matter how crazy, and illegal, he gets ).

Maybe the Democrats should be thanking D Trump, he has exposed the craziness of the current GOP, and may well end up wrecking their current organization.

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I think the problem is that Trump is very much a Republican. For many in the GOP, he only just now crossed the line with sedition and insurrection (and for others, he hasn’t crossed it yet. Elected of

In the thread I started, 'Canadian Protests', in Feb 2020, where no actual violence occurred because police chose not to enforce the law, and allowed unlawful behaviour for months, your reply was

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49 minutes ago, MigL said:

Maybe the Democrats should be thanking D Trump, he has exposed the craziness of the current GOP, and may well end up wrecking their current organization.

Many are likely withholding gratitude until they’re certain Trump will similarly withhold releasing troops into our streets to overturn an election he lost 

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10 hours ago, iNow said:

Many are likely withholding gratitude until they’re certain Trump will similarly withhold releasing troops into our streets to overturn an election he lost 

Only eight more year's, to be sure...

 

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15 hours ago, MigL said:

Maybe the Democrats should be thanking D Trump, he has exposed the craziness of the current GOP, and may well end up wrecking their current organization.

Or he showed a blueprint that an actual competent autocrat could use to seize power. Also note that a significant proportion of the US population that are part of the GOP or are GOP voters do not consider that crazy (70-80% believe that the elections were not legitimate, for example). Not sure if it considers wrecking, rather a long slide from the right into fantasy country. But I assume they will recover if Democrats will finally be nice to them. 

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11 hours ago, CharonY said:

Also note that a significant proportion of the US population that are part of the GOP or are GOP voters do not consider that crazy (70-80% believe that the elections were not legitimate, for example).

It's not that clear cut from the Ipsos poll on November 18. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ

Quote

 

The Nov. 13-17 opinion poll showed that Trump’s open defiance of Biden’s victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College appears to be affecting the public’s confidence in American democracy, especially among Republicans.

Altogether, 73% of those polled agreed that Biden won the election while 5% thought Trump won. But when asked specifically whether Biden had “rightfully won,” Republicans showed they were suspicious about how Biden’s victory was obtained. Fifty-two percent of Republicans said that Trump “rightfully won,” while only 29% said that Biden had rightfully won.

Asked why, Republicans were much more concerned than others that state vote counters had tipped the result toward Biden: 68% of Republicans said they were concerned that the election was “rigged,” while only 16% of Democrats and one-third of independents were similarly worried.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, LaurieAG said:

It's not that clear cut from the Ipsos poll on November 18

Right, but 2 straight months of nonstop astroturfing by the most visible people on the planet since then has clearly shifted public perceptions. 

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I don't believe so.
The last couple of months of the President's even crazier behavior, with the election fraud claims and tampering, and the mess with Covid relief payouts, has fractured the Republican party, and looks to have given democrats control of the Senate; something they wouldn't have even imagines 2 months ago.

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18 minutes ago, MigL said:

I don't believe so.
The last couple of months of the President's even crazier behavior, with the election fraud claims and tampering, and the mess with Covid relief payouts, has fractured the Republican party, and looks to have given democrats control of the Senate; something they wouldn't have even imagines 2 months ago.

 But look at how many Republicans are convinced that SOMETHING fraudulent happened under the very noses of their own supposedly vigilant party? I don't much care how they think politically, but this is a breakdown of reasoning skills, and I think it's due in part to wishful thinking, but mostly due to all the idiotic claims that have been repeated and allowed to avoid assessment by a media uninterested in actually informing the public. 

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38 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

I think it's due in part to wishful thinking, but mostly due to all the idiotic claims that have been repeated and allowed to avoid assessment by a media uninterested in actually informing the public. 

This is part of it, but not the key point, IMO. There are so many bullshit claims being made and the amount of disinformation being disseminated is vast. It's just far too much for the average citizen focused on work and putting food on the table and taking care of their family to follow. 

Sure, if they see one claim that seems to be false, the "media" can correct it, but as soon as they do there are suddenly 17 more false claims following it. People can basically find information "supporting" any viewpoint they already hold and there's just no way for "the media" to keep up with it all. This problem is much bigger than the media. 

Your point about a breakdown in reasoning skills is far more resonant, IMO. 

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7 minutes ago, iNow said:

Your point about a breakdown in reasoning skills is far more resonant, IMO. 

If FOX News and other conservative outlets aren't pointing out that Republicans in charge have been watching for exactly the things the president claims have happened, how can viewers be expected to add that fact to their reasoning? The "information" they're basing their opinions on is incomplete or misleading. A reasoned argument is almost automatically a properly informed one, isn't it?

I can't help but think that a Walter Cronkite-era newsperson, someone required by law to inform the public, would be pointing out that, if the president's allegations were true, conservative paranoia about voter fraud turned out to be about as effective as an unarmed, minimum wage, teenage night guard at the warehouse. A newscaster not focused on entertainment could point out how silly it is to think the GOP auditors are so dim-witted. Walter would have focused on the real fraud being committed, I think.

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10 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Walter would have focused on the real fraud being committed, I think.

It helped that he was like one of two total newscasters speaking. Today, any fool with a phone can be a "newscaster." 

The cycle here is consistent in terms of belief there's been voter fraud. I mentioned the term "astroturfing" above. They claim there's fraud despite any obvious evidence. They then keep repeating those claims and work in a systematic fashion to spread them through influencer channels and social media. They manufacture the concerns, then use the approach, "there's a lot of distrust in the election results out there so we need to be responsible and follow-up... investigate it more." Never mind that they were the ones who created the distrust. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Throughout much of Trump's presidency, he and his allies have been arsonists who set the fire then go in to talk about how dangerous the fires are and attempt to take credit for putting it out...  never mind that there would never have been a fire in the first place had they not arrived with matches and gasoline and bullhorns shouting about the danger of fires. 

Swarm of bees strategy, too

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11 hours ago, LaurieAG said:

It's not that clear cut from the Ipsos poll on November 18. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ

 

I am not sure how it changes the essence, if we take the highest threshold (i.e. who won), which could be considered the epitome of crazy, it is already 52% of Trump voters. Only 26% accept reality.

2 hours ago, MigL said:

I don't believe so.
The last couple of months of the President's even crazier behavior, with the election fraud claims and tampering, and the mess with Covid relief payouts, has fractured the Republican party, and looks to have given democrats control of the Senate; something they wouldn't have even imagines 2 months ago.

I do not think that this is due to the GOP, it seems that the Dems have massively increased their turnout. It would take some more analyses, but so far I have not seen anything that suggest a fracturing. My sinking feeling is that effectively the crazies have won (as the tea party before them) and that if they are folks disgruntled now, they are not enough to matter.

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5 hours ago, iNow said:

Throughout much of Trump's presidency, he and his allies have been arsonists who set the fire then go in to talk about how dangerous the fires are and attempt to take credit for putting it out...  never mind that there would never have been a fire in the first place had they not arrived with matches and gasoline and bullhorns shouting about the danger of fires. 

Well, now Trump supporters have stormed the capitol after all the incitement from the President and the backing from the GOP. 

Quote

Amid the violence, Trump tweeted pleas to the protestors to “stay peaceful,” adding “No violence! Remember, WE are the Party of Law & Order.” But the violence continued.

Perfect example of what you have been describing.

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I’m watching CNN and I can’t believe what I’m seeing. Trump is going to have blood on his hands after 18:00 when the curfew starts. I can’t believe cops & guards let all those people into the Capitol building, Putin is opening a bottle of Champagne right now. 

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An astrophysicist I know who recently moved to the US from South Africa says this is exactly how it is back home, every election. What did Trump call places like that?

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27 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

An astrophysicist I know who recently moved to the US from South Africa says this is exactly how it is back home, every election. What did Trump call places like that?

The worst part is that Trump is succesfuly building his equity this very moment of becoming a martyr. Things are not well, when America coughs many others can catch a cold.

Edited by koti
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Interesting tweet from Trump, a while ago
"

 
 
kUuht00m_bigger.jpg
 
Anarchists, Agitators or Protestors who vandalize or damage our Federal Courthouse in Portland, or any Federal Buildings in any of our Cities or States, will be prosecuted under our recently re-enacted Statues & Monuments Act. MINIMUM TEN YEARS IN PRISON. Don’t do it!
@DHSgov"

Let's hope he sticks to his word.
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5 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Just an opinion, but I think there will be less Republicans supporting and/or condoning Trumps "efforts" now that the polls have closed in Georgia. 

Right on time...

I know McConnell had already congratulated Biden, but I doubt he would have made this speech yesterday

https://abc7.com/mitch-mcconnell-speech-donald-trump-senate-joint-session-congress/9410912/

 

"Mitch McConnell breaks from Trump in blistering speech

McConnell: 'If this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral.'"

Edited by J.C.MacSwell
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26 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Right on time...

I know McConnell had already congratulated Biden, but I doubt he would have made this speech yesterday

https://abc7.com/mitch-mcconnell-speech-donald-trump-senate-joint-session-congress/9410912/

 

"Mitch McConnell breaks from Trump in blistering speech

McConnell: 'If this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral.'"

I noticed, reading the news, the Republican top brass are starting to become more autonomous in their public thoughts. I get the feeling he will be buried politically by them, as well as the other things going on. Insurrection's even been bandied about, with the storming of the Capitol... one woman has been shot and killed in it.

Edited by StringJunky
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, John Cuthber said:

Let's hope he sticks to his word.

Sure, he called out the protesters, and threatened prosecution, but he always adds "even though we won the election … by a landslide … and we were robbed".

The 'beacon' of Democracy, once a symbol around the world, has been turned into the 'laughing stock', of the world by D Trump, and his useful idiots.

Last time we saw shit like this was the 20s, when B Mussolini marched on Rome to take power by fascist intimidation and violence, or the street battles and violence by Hitler's Nazi party, that eventually saw the end of the Weimar Republic, and forced von Hindenburg to appoint him Chancellor.

I would be willing to bet, both Mexico, and Canada, will pay for their own border walls now.

Edited by MigL
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I know everyone insists I'm equally hard on each side...but I'll just point out that I saw some Democ"rats" one's as well.😛

In Trump's defence though...it seems he was actually robbed of a landslide victory:

"These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long," Trump tweeted. "Go home with love & peace." 

We all would be a little upset if that happened to us...

12 minutes ago, MigL said:

I would be willing to bet, both Mexico, and Canada, will pay for their own border walls now.

Sure, but I'm going to vote for the party that insists the US will foot the bill.😉

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3 hours ago, koti said:

I’m watching CNN and I can’t believe what I’m seeing. Trump is going to have blood on his hands after 18:00 when the curfew starts. I can’t believe cops & guards let all those people into the Capitol building, Putin is opening a bottle of Champagne right now. 

Well, let's see if the riot police actually starts shooting rubber bullets as they did last times when protestors defied curfew...

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