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Area54

Consequences of Trump's Covid Condition?

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Given the news of Trump's "Covid Catch":

  • What do you suppose would be the likely impact upon the election result?
  • If the condition were to prove fatal for him before the election how would that be handled? Can the Republicans select another candidate? Would Pence automatically step-up? How would ballot papers be handled?
  • Same questions post-election if he won the election.
  • Any other thoughts?

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1 minute ago, Area54 said:

What do you suppose would be the likely impact upon the election result?

Paradoxically, it might help him. If he dies, more moderate Republicans planning right now to vote for Biden might come back home to the "replacement" Republican nominee.

 

2 minutes ago, Area54 said:

If the condition were to prove fatal for him before the election how would that be handled? Can the Republicans select another candidate? Would Pence automatically step-up? How would ballot papers be handled?

The RNC would have to choose a replacement candidate, but it's already too late to change ballots (also since voting has already begun in many states). The decision would be left to the electors of the electoral college in states where Trump won to pass those votes to the replacement chosen by the RNC or pass them to someone else. Nothing legally prevents them from deciding for themselves who to push votes to, but they would likely align behind the RNC choice.

 

3 minutes ago, Area54 said:

Same questions post-election if he won the election.

Pence would assume power at least until inauguration day January 17

 

3 minutes ago, Area54 said:

Any other thoughts?

This is very on-brand for 2020. I'm also not at all comfortable with the level of schadenfreude I'm feeling. 

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14 minutes ago, iNow said:

The RNC would have to choose a replacement candidate, but it's already too late to change ballots (also since voting has already begun in many states). The decision would be left to the electors of the electoral college in states where Trump won to pass those votes to the replacement chosen by the RNC or pass them to someone else. Nothing legally prevents them from deciding for themselves who to push votes to, but they would likely align behind the RNC choice.

Of course! I forgot the electoral college need not be a simple rubber stamp.

16 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Very useful. Thank you both.

 

18 minutes ago, iNow said:

I'm also not at all comfortable with the level of schadenfreude I'm feeling. 

Intellectually I recognise that such would be a proper position, but if ever there was a case for an exception this could be it.

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Another take... is entirely possible he has a mild case and makes a full recovery in 2 weeks. That would allow him to come out and say, “yeah I coughed and sneezed a few times, but I’m as tough as an ox and I told you this thing was no worse than flu” and he gets a bunch of sympathy from voters. Again, helps his prospects. 

Hate to sound conspiratorial, but there’s also always a chance this is a bullshit ploy to change the topic. This is going to absorb media coverage over everything else for at least a few weeks. 

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3 minutes ago, iNow said:

Hate to sound conspiratorial, but there’s also always a chance this is a bullshit ploy to change the topic. This is going to absorb media coverage over everything else for at least a few weeks. 

I'm generally anti-conspiracy theory, but my first reaction when I heard of Trump's positive test was "That's an effective way of avoiding another Presidential debate".

In the more likely scenario where he shrugs it off with minor syptoms, if he were to use the " I told you this thing was no worse than flu" he'll get very little sympathy from those who have lost family or friends.

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It's also possible he is already on a ventilator and he ordered the doctor to say he was the healthiest sick President in history.

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Hey, wasn't it die-hard Republicans who claimed a few weeks ago, that J Biden was going to fake catching Covid-19 so he could bow out of the debates because he, and the Democrats, expected to do poorly ?

S Berlusconi the richer-than-God, 84 year old, ex-Italian President caught Covid, and he had no adverse effects.
Apparently the rich even suffer disease differently than us poor folk.

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21 minutes ago, MigL said:

Hey, wasn't it die-hard Republicans who claimed a few weeks ago, that J Biden was going to fake catching Covid-19 so he could bow out of the debates because he, and the Democrats, expected to do poorly ?

S Berlusconi the richer-than-God, 84 year old, ex-Italian President caught Covid, and he had no adverse effects.
Apparently the rich even suffer disease differently than us poor folk.

Well, they and folks around them are likely getting tested early and frequently. They are also less likely to be exposed to the broader public via transportation or grocery shopping, for example. As a consequence, they are likely only getting infected with folks who are asymptomatic and potentially have a lower viral load. Together with extremely high level and individualized care they have a much better chance of better outcomes. In fact a recent publication on epidemiological studies in India found a surprising drop of mortality after the age of 65. The hypothesis is that folks reaching that age are likely to be able to afford better health care, so that we see a strong socioeconomic effect there.

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1 hour ago, zapatos said:

It's also possible he is already on a ventilator and he ordered the doctor to say he was the healthiest sick President in history.

"It was a big sick. a very very big sick. Doctors, specialists in the field and I'm talking about the very best, said anyone else would have died and died quickly. They were amazed how quickly I got over it. Very amazed."

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1 hour ago, MigL said:

Apparently the rich even suffer disease differently than us poor folk.

That was obvious already, was it not? White well-off people do much better with Covid than nearly anyone else in the US. Non-whites and non-wealthy tend to be non-healthy and hamred more

Update: They’re taking him out of the White House and instead sending him to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for at least the next several days. 

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2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

"It was a big sick. a very very big sick. Doctors, specialists in the field and I'm talking about the very best, said anyone else would have died and died quickly. They were amazed how quickly I got over it. Very amazed."

Id imagine he'd love having a large rock moved to the front entrance of the White House so he can roll it to the side and emerge.

5 hours ago, Area54 said:

What do you suppose would be the likely impact upon the election result?

It has to hurt Trump's approval. This is a crisis of hist absolute own creation. The nation has seen Trump mock journalists at briefings and Biden during the debate for wearing masks. Trump's own family defied the rules during the debate went mask-less. Trump clearly exercised poor judgement. If isn't something the left can be blamed or whatever. Trump did this to himself.

5 hours ago, Area54 said:

If the condition were to prove fatal for him before the election how would that be handled? Can the Republicans select another candidate? Would Pence automatically step-up? How would ballot papers be handled?

Over a million people have already early voted. If it were to prove fatal that would still take another couple weeks by which point tens of millions may have already voted. A time "before the election" has passed. Ballots are being cast. It is basically too late to replace Trump with another candidate in the traditional sense. Electoral College Electors could just give their votes to Pence. However that would be done state by state and nothing legally would force all state Electors to do so. Congress also has the authority to cancel/reschedule the election.

5 hours ago, Area54 said:

Any other thoughts?

I have been worried about election result violence. I am fearful that if Biden wins White Nationalist group will perpetrate large scale domestic terrorist attacks against against people of color, immigrants, and the LGBTQ community. I am also concerned that if Trump wins we'll see violence protests throughout the nation that lead to mass fatalities. Just a lose/lose situation where people will be hurt and killed regardless of the outcome.

If Trump were to pass from COVID I think it changes the violent forecast. Trump very publicly disregarded recommended safety precautions. Trump made ignoring COVID protocols part of his brand. Antfa, Crooked Hillary, Sleepy Joe, Nancy, the failing NY Times, etc didn't do this to Trump. There won't be any boogeymen for Trump supporters rage against if Trump passed. They would be fill with deep disappointment rather than violent anger. I think it would lower tensions.

*I am not advocating anything with the above comments.

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Given who’s currently confirmed as infected, it definitely seems that the Rose Garden announcement ceremony for Supreme Court nominee, Amy Conan Barrett, was a super spreader event. 

Is karma an instantaneous phenomenon, or just irony?

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19 hours ago, iNow said:

This is very on-brand for 2020. I'm also not at all comfortable with the level of schadenfreude I'm feeling. 

It feels rather good basking in the warm glow of schadenfreude to me... 

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What really worries me is that if he dies the Republicans can run a campaign  that essentially says 
"Anything you liked about the last 4 years is down to Republican policies and we will keep doing it; anything you didn't like was Mr Trump's personal policy so we won't do that again"

Nobody will notice that, Republican policy was, actually, to support trump.

On the other hand, perhaps the Democrats should be chanting " Built no wall!"

Trump was elected largely on one issue- that wall; paid for by Mexico.
No wall, not a single Peso from the Mexicans.
 

The Dems should be rubbing his nose in that fact.

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1 hour ago, John Cuthber said:

The Dems should be rubbing his nose in that fact.

But that would require a breach of social distancing.

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1 hour ago, John Cuthber said:

What really worries me is that if he dies the Republicans can run a campaign  that essentially says 
"Anything you liked about the last 4 years is down to Republican policies and we will keep doing it; anything you didn't like was Mr Trump's personal policy so we won't do that again"

Nobody will notice that, Republican policy was, actually, to support trump.

On the other hand, perhaps the Democrats should be chanting " Built no wall!"

Trump was elected largely on one issue- that wall; paid for by Mexico.
No wall, not a single Peso from the Mexicans.
 

The Dems should be rubbing his nose in that fact.

Yes, Trump's passing would allow the GOP to reboot its message.

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The whole thing is also a reminder how abysmal contact tracing have been in much of the world. Based on recent reports only a handful of folks were informed and thereby needlessly risking health of others. If that happens there, how bad is it in the broader populace?

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, CharonY said:

The whole thing is also a reminder how abysmal contact tracing have been in much of the world. Based on recent reports only a handful of folks were informed and thereby needlessly risking health of others. If that happens there, how bad is it in the broader populace?

Isn't it because they've never had to implement it before, the basic infrastructure's not there, nor even the software until too late.

Edited by StringJunky

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28 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

Isn't it because they've never had to implement it before, the basic infrastructure's not there, nor even the software until too late.

I believe it’s a lack of willingness more than a lack of tech or ability. Many Americans I know have actively refused to use even the most basic contact tracing capabilities due to some random privacy concerns. 

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17 minutes ago, iNow said:

I believe it’s a lack of willingness more than a lack of tech or ability. Many Americans I know have actively refused to use even the most basic contact tracing capabilities due to some random privacy concerns. 

It's just been rolled out here and one of my friends echoed the same thought today.

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1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Isn't it because they've never had to implement it before, the basic infrastructure's not there, nor even the software until too late.

I am with iNow. Other countries did a better job and built capabilities up pretty fast. In much of the Western world there was disappointingly little progress in that regard.

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Just now, CharonY said:

I am with iNow. Other countries did a better job and built capabilities up pretty fast. In much of the Western world there was disappointingly little progress in that regard.

But in those countries people were ordered what to do by default. Authoritarianism can do that.

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15 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

But in those countries people were ordered what to do by default. Authoritarianism can do that.

Privacy concerns and compliance may be part of the equation. For example surveys indicated that perhaps 20% of Brits with symptoms did not stay at home. 

However, we are not necessarily talking about tech or even good sense. Even in confirmed cases folks in France, UK and Germany only provided limited lists of contacts to authorities and on average only three persons per infection were traced. In countries such as South Korea and Taiwan (as well as other Asian and African countries,) the traced folks are double digits. Also note that many authoritarian countries are doing poorly, mostly in those were the government did not take the risk seriously.

So failure to recognize a public health risk and to comply to recommendation (with varying degrees) but also lack of governmental willingness to set up a better contact tracing system are some of the key reasons why the pandemic was not contained or failed to burn out. 

Ultimately, we have seen a case were reaction was slow and pondering with the primary aim to prevent the worse rather than trying to aim for the best outcome. If more had been invested and done in the beginning, the net economic loss would likely be a fraction of what we are going to face. Not to mention the worrying reports of permanent damages due to the disease, which may have long-lasting health costs, even once the pandemic subsides. 

I do not think it is a matter of authoritarianism. It is matter of whether folks decided to a) listen to health experts and b) willing to take measures that were more than "just enough".
 

I should add: many of the countries doing the right steps such as enhanced contact tracing, were also those that have built expertise due to outbreaks such as SARS or ebola. I can only hope that this time the memory persists, and does not suddenly vanish (also in the Western world) such as after the swine flu pandemic.

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Every restaurant in Ontario, Canada, that is open for business ( with limited well-spaced seating ) requires you to be wearing a mask upon entering and for at least one person to sign in and give contact information ( unless you've made reservations and have already provided it ).

Might make things a little tense if you are out with your girlfriend and your wife is contacted about a possible outbreak in that particular establishment.

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