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Ten oz

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Ten oz last won the day on March 27 2019

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981 Glorious Leader


About Ten oz

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    Washington D.C.
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    Homebrew, Hiking, Cycling, independent video, politics
  • College Major/Degree
    Armed Forces Resident training
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  1. @MigL the proverbial genie being out of the bottle is a point often made when discussing how far new tech, processes, behaviors, or etc might go from a concerned point of view. While it may be true it lacks degree. Nuclear weapons were last (and only) used in 1945. Efforts to prevent proliferation have been more successful than most reasonable person would have guessed they could be when they began 70yrs ago. of course the cat is out the bag and more nations will obtain nuclear weapons and time Marches. That said future wars will most likely be cyber and the usefulness of Nuclear weapons is actually diminishing. Only time will tell but its possible we've already crested the peak concerning Nuclear weapons and are on the backside of the mountain. Militarily cyber provides more bang for the buck. In which case proliferation efforts kept keep nuclear weapons scarce enough (less nations with them) long enough. Efforts regarding gene editing might be able to do the same. Prevent wide spread editing long enough that our understanding of the down stream consequences catch up. *the morality of various discussion made in the name of preventing nuclear proliferation can be debated at length. Poor execution and bad faith behavior weasel there way into everything.
  2. Trump losing the popular vote by 7 million is even more significant considering the investment Republicans have made in voter suppression. Thousands of polling locations have been closed, new registration laws instituted, new deadlines, ballots designed to confuse, etc, etc. In the past Republicans hid their efforts but in the months leading up to this election were brazen about their desire to prevent people from voting. Despite the carefully imposed inconveniences Biden received 7 million more votes. I think it is obvious the number would have easily been in the double digits if elections were manage in good faith. Trump won NC by a percent and Texas by just 5.5%. Both potentially would've been Biden's if not for disenfranchisement. I keep seeing people discuss that we (USA) is a divided nation and implying we are split equally but that isn't true. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 general elections. won the popular vote by millions that last 4 straight general election. The majority of the nation has a preference.
  3. @CharonY It seems we have some of the same concerns. It isn't trivial but it is being attempted . We are in the early dawn. The reasons to encourage and push ever further ahead are powerful ones. What parent wouldn't want to ensure their child would be born without a life threatening genetic condition. I am not comfortable with it but ever I would be desperate for such assurance if it existed. Problem of course is things never stay as intended and all value is relative. What starts as preventing babies from being born with cancer quickly becomes parents selecting the gender, hair color, etc of their children. certainly there would be far more paying customers for the superficial than the rare genetic disorder. I have come to view it as unethical for people to make any permanent long term (greater than a lifetime) changes to the ecology. Whether its making land uninhabitable with radioactive waste or manipulating germline DNA I don't think humans are capable of making the needed calculations for the future that will exist far beyond our own.
  4. Trump cannot pardon state charges. Only federal ones. Trump also cannot pardon himself from future civil suits. Trump have been manipulating the true value of his assets for decades. Trump has defrauded numerous investors. Once Trump's financials are fully turned over to Courts in NY and interested parties can petition to see them Trump will be in big trouble. Suits will come in from states across the nation where Trump has done business: FL, NJ, NY, NV, FL, etc.
  5. I recently watched a Netflix Documentary called Human Nature which discusses how CRISPR is being used and could be further used to edit human genes. I found many of the ethical questions raised difficult to parse. I also found the prospect of the human genome being possibly polluted with superficial edits made out of vanity, bias, or per ignorance terrifying. I put this in speculation to open the discussion up to include peoples hopes, fears, ethical concerns, etc are for human gene editing.
  6. I view this as inevitable. Just like with Bush. Trump, a Republican, literally attacked Hillary Clinton over the Iraq War. In just 8yrs (08'-16') Republicans were already blaming Democrats for the Iraq War, Patriot Act, etc. It is just what they do.
  7. You are treating Stupid as an objective measurement. A quick macro view of the world reveals that human technological 'progress' has come at the expense of the stability of the planets environment. Humans have ushered in a mass extinction, Holocene Extinction. Subjectively humans are bad for the planet. That relationship doesn't seem 'smart' yet nearly every 'smart' person who has ever lived has contributed to it. Often who we consider stupid vs smart comes down to what we value. Many rich people assume all poor people are stupid or fitness minded people with sculpted bodies think fat people are stupid. Those who greatly value literacy might consider illiterate people stupid. Yet humans as a whole have been illiterate as species for the overwhelming majority of our species existence. Paradoxically language in both spoken and written form was created by illiterate people. Most successful businesses are ones which best simplify their process. The most successful business are NOT necessarily ones which make the best products. McDonald's doesn't make the world's best Hamburger. Most average person in western society can make a better hamburger for themselves. McDonald's perfected the process. McDonald's sells speed and convenience. The food itself is the cheapest low graded crap legal to sell for consumption. There is a relationship between simplified processes and business success. That includes what a business needs from an employee. The more training and education required from employees to keep a business operational the harder time a business will have staying operation. Successful businesses are full of dumb down jobs anyone can do. It improves efficiency by making workers easy to find, employees interchangeable, and limits overreliance on individuals. How traditionally educated the population is above a relative standard doesn't impact GDP. There is not a direct correlation between nations with highest per capita GDP and nations with most traditionally educated populaces. In my opinion education in Western nations mostly serves a means of shaping a class based structure for society. Western nations have ethically grown out of segregating people into economic classes by things beyond an individuals ability to control like race, height, surname, hair color, etc. So we lean on education. It s viewed as something individuals can choose. In truth though I think the vast majority of jobs in westerner society could be performed by all average members of society. Nearly all jobs are dummy proof, come with have clear instructions. I make what I consider to be a good living. I own my home, have money saved, own lots of nice things, etc. If I step away from my ego and honestly just look at what I'm paid to do the truth is 90% of the population in the U.S. (where I live) could do my job with a reasonable amount of on the job training. Anecdotally there is no delineation between how well my highly educated friends vs uneducated friends are able to assemble IKEA furniture, learn the features on their smartphones, use apps, or safely drive a car.
  8. In simplest terms Science is about observation. One can be talented at observation yet still believe in the unobservable. The mind isn't hampered by competing feelings. One can both love and hate something at the same time.
  9. Id imagine he'd love having a large rock moved to the front entrance of the White House so he can roll it to the side and emerge. It has to hurt Trump's approval. This is a crisis of hist absolute own creation. The nation has seen Trump mock journalists at briefings and Biden during the debate for wearing masks. Trump's own family defied the rules during the debate went mask-less. Trump clearly exercised poor judgement. If isn't something the left can be blamed or whatever. Trump did this to himself. Over a million people have already early voted. If it were to prove fatal that would still take another couple weeks by which point tens of millions may have already voted. A time "before the election" has passed. Ballots are being cast. It is basically too late to replace Trump with another candidate in the traditional sense. Electoral College Electors could just give their votes to Pence. However that would be done state by state and nothing legally would force all state Electors to do so. Congress also has the authority to cancel/reschedule the election. I have been worried about election result violence. I am fearful that if Biden wins White Nationalist group will perpetrate large scale domestic terrorist attacks against against people of color, immigrants, and the LGBTQ community. I am also concerned that if Trump wins we'll see violence protests throughout the nation that lead to mass fatalities. Just a lose/lose situation where people will be hurt and killed regardless of the outcome. If Trump were to pass from COVID I think it changes the violent forecast. Trump very publicly disregarded recommended safety precautions. Trump made ignoring COVID protocols part of his brand. Antfa, Crooked Hillary, Sleepy Joe, Nancy, the failing NY Times, etc didn't do this to Trump. There won't be any boogeymen for Trump supporters rage against if Trump passed. They would be fill with deep disappointment rather than violent anger. I think it would lower tensions. *I am not advocating anything with the above comments.
  10. Trump has antagonized people for wear masks, insisted on holding rallies, repeated said re-opening is more important than further safety, and stood on the debate stage criticizing Biden. It is stunning full circle moment where all the undermining and downplaying is coming back at once. Trump has also spoken a lot about how young people are nearly immune and only older people get sick. Trump is 74yrs olds. Herman Cain was 74yrs old. It is a really good thing the customary handshaking before and after the debate didn't happen. That moment of social distancing is now a solid example to all.
  11. in 2016 Trump beat Realclearpolitic's aggregated polling by 7% in WI. Fivethirtyeight gave Clinton a 83.5% chance of winning WI which was better than Clinton's overall chance of winning the White House. In MI Trump beat aggregated polling by 4% and 538 gave Clinton 79% of winning which was also greater than her overall. You are probably correct about AZ and IA. Nothing strange there. The numbers actually surprised me when I looked them up. Both finished within decimals of a percent of their polling in 2016. Which isn't to say I think every state will mirror polling. WI and MI had issues (see below). So I think MI & WI are right there with FL & GA as virtually unwinnable by anything less than robust margins.
  12. While Trump seeks to manipulate in plain view the issue goes far beyond Trump. Red Shift has been a feature in U.S. elections for decades and has only gotten worse. Errors and anomalies will float Trump and down ballot Republicans 2-4 points in States like AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, WI, etc. My belief is that on Election night Trump will start declaring victory in key states soon as the polls close. Trump will declare victory in FL, GA, OH, etc. Media pundits will cover him doing so. Pundits will caution that Trump declarations aren't official but won't be too aggressive about it. It is always seems important that everyone who isn't Trump stay professional. In declaring victory Trump will demand various states certify him the winner. Trump and Republicans officials in those states will start questioning efforts to complete counts. It will generate a lot of confusion. Some officials may actually just stop counting and defer to the courts for guidance. It will only get messier from there as state by state there are different laws on the books dictating rules and timelines for recounts, how long uncounted votes can sit, deadlines for results, and so on. Depending on how long courts take to step in and how brazenly some local officials sabotage/exploit the process we may run past critical local deadlines which make achieving full initial counts next to impossible. Think FL 00' but in several states at once. I suspect the chaos will be successful in states like FL, GA, an TX. Races were STOLEN in those states back on 2018 and it didn't even involve a President on TV claiming victory and threatening to investigate and file lawsuits. None of those states have done anything to fix their processes since. So I assume they are potentially unwinnable for Biden. Election Night and the week following will be an absolute nightmare. I keep reading people confidently referencing the law and insisting Trump can't just declare himself the winner but for 4yrs now I have repeated seen Trump openly break the law without ramifications: Emoluments Clause, Hatch Act, Logan Act, Nepotism, Obstruction of Justice, Campaign Finance, etc. I've seen no evidence that our system of checks and balances is capable restraining Trump. If Trump declares he won FL and DeSantis comes out and says the same I think Trump wins FL. Sure there will be some hand wringing in FL's Attorney General's office but they will make it work. My guess is it will come down to the Senate. If Republicans believe they kept they Senate they will hold ranks behind Trump during the chaos in the days following the elections. If Republicans project they lost the Senate they won't.
  13. Trump with the help of McConnell and the compliance of the Republican party at large has exercised as much authority as any POTUS in my lifetime. Yet beyond cutting taxes there isn't any signature policies Trump & Republicans have passed or pursued. After years of Repeal and Replace rhetoric Republican not only didn't actually how a Repeal/Replace plan ready they haven't shown interest in coming up with one. Rather Republicans mostly seem focused on packing courts and blocking Democrats proposals. The RNC didn't even bother to release a platform. They just pushed 2016's back out without even updating it to reflect they've be in power for the last few year. I honestly do not know what Republicans stand for anymore. I know their supporters are angry and winning more power is what they lust for most but I don't know to what end? Republicans don't seem to be interested in policy at all. Democrats cannot debate Republicans on policy positions Republicans don't have. I am not sure how a candidate like Biden (Harris, Warren, Booker, Castro, etc) could engage with that audience. The disagreements aren't rooted in policy. Imagine if everyone had equal access to vote. Trump isn't trying to win a few more votes. Trump hasn't taken one step to broaden his appeal or get more voters to come out. What Trump has done is sabotage the Postal Services ability to process mail in ballots. State by state Republicans have exploited local laws to the maximum to restrict prior felons from voting, limited polling stations, denied funding required for election administration, etc. It is absolutely disgusting that it is an open secret than Biden cannot win a close race. Biden either wins in a landslide or it is 4 more years of Trump.
  14. Princeton did a study of the impact that public support for particular policy ideas had and found it wasn't much. How the majority of the U.S. felt wasn't very influential regarding which policies passed or fail. Rather corporate preferences had the prominent influence. The system simply isn't working for the majority of people and most realize it. However few have form ideas about in what ways it is broken or how to fix it. So we get competing groups calling for various changes: term limits for Congress & SCOTUS, eliminating the electoral college, age limits, voting holiday, etc, etc, etc. In my opinion few such proposals get at the heart of the problem. We allow politicians to cheat. Take a look at Florida. Despite state law allowing those with felonies to get their voting rights restored after a period of time state officials would decline nearly all requests. Over a million people were denied the right to vote in elections all over the state where the those officials political Party was repeating squeaking out victories by sometimes just hundreds of votes. Then the law was changed via a voter supported referendum. So in response the state officials, same one who won tight elections because over a million people couldn't vote, instituted a fine of up to $1,500 to have ones voting rights restore. They just bypassed the referendum and added on this huge expensive only a minority of people can possibly afford. Yet Florida doesn't lose electoral influence in national elections or anything. Florida still gets to be just as impactful to the General Election as it always is despite the fact the state has a demonstratively corrupt system that disenfranchises significant portions of its voters. Term limits, age limits, voting holidays, etc won't fix that. As a nation we are disgusting apathetic towards the way Politicians pick their voters rather than vice versa.
  15. If one views the way the U.S electoral system operates as Tweedism the debate spoke to the angriest among a narrow demographic. The majority of voters, their hopes & interests, were ignored.
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