iNow

Democrats Get CRUSHED in 2018 Midterms!

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Visualize this: It’s November 7. You wake up to discover Republicans kept control of the house, senate, along with most state legislatures and governorships. 

What does that mean? What best explains how it happened? What comes next?

Let’s not assume it’s impossible. After all, who thought they’d wake up to see Donald Trump as the US President on November 9, 2016...FiveThirtyEight gives 15% for GOP taking house, 81% for senate, and at least 26 state governors.

This is clearly opinion based. Let’s please keep in mind that none of our crystal balls are more accurate than anyone else’s. 

What would it mean, how did it happen, what happens next?

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Journalists are arrested.

Women become incubators for the state.

Social security ended.

Public schools closed.

More tax breaks for corporations.

Greater air pollution, lower water quality.

War started in a country over something that had nothing to do with it.

Racist, raucous  rallies every second day, stumping for Trump 2020.

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At least one of those seems... hyperbolic. Which would you bet your paycheck on actually happening?

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Well, journalists will survive if the 1st Amendment has any teeth. That's not to say the whole fake news hyperbole won't go away though.

Roe v Wade... precarious at best.

Social Security is on the chopping block. There's overtures of that already.

Public schools, maybe not entirely, but definitely undermined.

More relaxation of environmental regulations and park status removed, definitely.

War... Trump will start one under the pretext Americans never oust a president from a second term.

Rallies, yeah more of them. Uglier than one's we've already seen.

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I suspect the specific items you cite will occur with the same probability regardless of which party is dominant in this election 

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9 hours ago, iNow said:

Visualize this: It’s November 7. You wake up to discover Republicans kept control of the house, senate, along with most state legislatures and governorships. 

What does that mean? What best explains how it happened? What comes next?

Let’s not assume it’s impossible. After all, who thought they’d wake up to see Donald Trump as the US President on November 9, 2016...FiveThirtyEight gives 15% for GOP taking house, 81% for senate, and at least 26 state governors.

This is clearly opinion based. Let’s please keep in mind that none of our crystal balls are more accurate than anyone else’s. 

What would it mean, how did it happen, what happens next?

I doubt they get "crushed", but if they do it is probably more from shooting themselves in the foot than Trump shooting his mouth off.

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Voter suppression is real. In GA we had a bus full of African American Senior Citizens who were in route to vote stopped by the police. In the GA's Gov's race the Republican candidate in the current Sec. of State in GA and isn't recusing himself from issues surround voter registration. If the Democrat in GA loses by a slim margin we'll never know if that was a fair race. These issues repeat themselves through various parts of the country. Rather than addressing them the majority of people appear to settle for narratives surround the way campaign money was spent, which issues candidates chose to highlight, and etc. I personally don't believe campaign management is the key factor. We have a system here in the U.S. where state by state and county by county local govts all have different processes to vote.Those processes are often intentionally manipulated to give one candidate an advantage over another. The system simply isn't fair and I personally do not trust the out come any close election whether a Democrat or Republican wins. The system needs fixing. 

*I didn't link the Seniors on the bus or the voter reintegration issue because I assume we are all aware of them.  

Edited by Ten oz

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16 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I doubt they get "crushed", but if they do it is probably more from shooting themselves in the foot than Trump shooting his mouth off.

Gloves come off. I was waiting until someone would throw the first stone :) But I agree. Democrats tend to demonise the other party recently and to victimise themselves way too much. 
Democrats should construct and grow a real good candidate for the next election. Someone who really has a shot. Unfortunately following the current trends, the winning choices that come to mind are Oprah, Eminem or The Rock :(

You need a famous entertainer to beat a reality TV show star. Simple as rock paper scissors.

Edited by Silvestru

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48 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

Gloves come off. I was waiting until someone would throw the first stone :) But I agree. Democrats tend to demonise the other party recently and to victimise themselves way too much. 
Democrats should construct and grow a real good candidate for the next election. Someone who really has a shot. Unfortunately following the current trends, the winning choices that come to mind are Oprah, Eminem or The Rock :(

You need a famous entertainer to beat a reality TV show star. Simple as rock paper scissors.

The system isn't fair. It is common for Democrats to win more votes and still lose. Democrats already have the more popular candidates, evidence being they get more votes, and it isn't enough. It is easy to toss around equivalencies and what not but all that does is diminish what is a real problem. Can you provide an example on democrat based voter suppression or Republicans losing despite winning more votes? Below are examples of it for Republicans. II don't see how it is "way too much" complaining if it's true. 

Quote

 

Nationwide, Democrats running for Congress got 1.1 million more votes, but Republicans sent 33 more members to the House." It’s helpful to remember that the Republican margin of 33 seats means Democrats fell 17 victories short of capturing the House majority.

Doggett’s raw numbers were accurate. Democrats outpolled Republicans in the 2012 House races, but Republicans ended up with a 33-seat House majority.

A December 2012 analysis by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan D.C. publication, said House Democrats out-drew their Republican counterparts by more than 1 million votes--1.37 million votes to be precise, Cook’s House editor, David Wasserman, later calculated.

https://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2013/nov/26/lloyd-doggett/democrats-outpolled-republicans-who-landed-33-seat/

 

 

Quote

 

Georgia has closed 214 polling places in recent years. They have cut back on early voting. They have aggressively purged the voter rolls. Georgia has purged almost 10 percent of people from its voting rolls. One and a half million people have been purged from 2012 to 2016. ... There's a lot of different data points that show how Georgia is leading the way when it comes to restricting access to the ballot. ...

It was reported by the Associated Press that [gubernatorial candidate] Brian Kemp's office (the secretary of state's office) in Georgia was blocking 53,000 voter registrations in that state — 70 percent from African-Americans, 80 percent from people of color.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659784277/republican-voter-suppression-efforts-are-targeting-minorities-journalist-says

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ten oz said:

The system isn't fair. It is common for Democrats to win more votes and still lose. Democrats already have the more popular candidates, evidence being they get more votes, and it isn't enough. It is easy to toss around equivalencies and what not but all that does is diminish what is a real problem. Can you provide an example on democrat based voter suppression or Republicans losing despite winning more votes? Below are examples of it for Republicans. II don't see how it is "way too much" complaining if it's true. 

You are 100% right Ten oz and I stand corrected.  I was just airing my ignorant uneducated opinion. Unfortunately that describes a big chunk of the american voters. (especially republican according to the below poll).

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

I agree that the system isn't fair but I also see that it's easier to "trick" and distract the american public.  Of course the US is in the global media spotlight but I really don't hear so many dirty tactic news pieces from other "free" countries. I don't imagine the examples that you gave happening in Norway, Sweden etc. Or if they happen there are consequences. Of course it's just my opinion.

Edited by Silvestru

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38 minutes ago, Silvestru said:

You are 100% right Ten oz and I stand corrected.  I was just airing my ignorant uneducated opinion. Unfortunately that describes a big chunk of the american voters. (especially republican according to the below poll).

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

I agree that the system isn't fair but I also see that it's easier to "trick" and distract the american public.  Of course the US is in the global media spotlight but I really don't hear so many dirty tactic news pieces from other "free" countries. I don't imagine the examples that you gave happening in Norway, Sweden etc. Or if they happen there are consequences. Of course it's just my opinion.

I'd prefer to be 100% wrong.:( Delusion my part would be a much better alternative. Hey, no one ever lived during a perfect time period. At least I have a smart phone and Netflix. 

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14 hours ago, iNow said:

What best explains how it happened?

Perhaps many who would have voted Democrat decided to vote for non-major party candidates who better represent their own views, but the Republicans continued to vote a party ticket. There are many things everybody complains about that will never get fixed this way.

14 hours ago, iNow said:

What comes next?

Since those in power have figured out how to profit in the Trump era and are bandwagoning with him now, I'd say we're going to see more legislation favoring private owners and private ownership at the expense of the middle and working classes, more profit going to the ludicrously wealthy, more people in prison, more watering-down of legislation protecting consumers, and more people praising the major parties for the crumbs that trickle down to them (because it could be so much worse, and can never be much, MUCH better for everyone :rolleyes:).

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2 hours ago, Silvestru said:

I don't imagine the examples that you gave happening in Norway, Sweden etc. Or if they happen there are consequences. Of course it's just my opinion.

Part of it is because of the parliamentary structure in most European countries. Instead of polarizing between two choices, issues give rise to alternative parties. Sometimes it is something like the greens, now it is the far right. That being said, there is a fair amount of trickery that goes behind the scenes, though usually less blatant. For example electoral districts are also subject to gerrymandering and if you are in local politics there is quite a fight around that in areas where slight differences could prefer one party over the other. However, due to fragmentation risk of votes it folks keep it fairly muted. It seems to me at least that these things rarely go beyond the local press (if at all). 

That, btw is something that I found to be very different to politics in a number of European systems. In the US the politics is far more in our face and individual candidates often have a prominent profile. In Germany at least, only the top candidates are really presented to the public, the other candidates are kind of there and expected to vote with the respective party. The fact that the parties vote en bloc in the US is a somewhat recent development).

Edited by CharonY

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I'm mainly concerned on two primary fronts: 

1 - Electoral. Has our system been too deeply compromised to trust? If so, then Russia has achieved one of their key objectives... erode trust in the fairness of elections

2 - Cultural. Have we as US citizens failed to stop the rise of the Fourth Reich... do decency and values no longer matter. Can the GOP just continue stoking fears of "the other" with focus on immigrants and caravans and sowing distrust of information sources like media... and keep winning

 

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16 minutes ago, iNow said:

I'm mainly concerned on two primary fronts: 

1 - Electoral. Has our system been too deeply compromised to trust? If so, then Russia has achieved one of their key objectives... erode trust in the fairness of elections

2 - Cultural. Have we as US citizens failed to stop the rise of the Fourth Reich... do decency and values no longer matter. Can the GOP just continue stoking fears of "the other" with focus on immigrants and caravans and sowing distrust of information sources like media... and keep winning

 

1 - This has been an issue since before 2016 and the Russian propaganda attacks. In 2000 Republicans successfully stole an elections and then introduced partisan money masquerading as unaffiliated grass roots to swift boat Kerry in 04'. The system has been compromised for decades. I think 2016 just shed light on how compromised it is. 

2 - It seems a substantial portion of the U.S. legitimately hates other portions of the U.S.. From stand your ground laws, the death penalty, "let them die" stance on healthcare, and so on it seems clear to me many within the U.S. would straight up like to see many of their fellow citizens F#&% off and die. That might read like hyperbole but in a political environment where actual Nazis literally hold rallies and aren't condemned universally by all the threshold for what's hyperbole has been significantly raised.  I don't think it is about distrust. The new definition being floated for gender isn't about distrust. The issues are about hate not distrust. People simple do not like transgender individuals, immigrants, Muslims, Jewish people, uppity black athletes who do anything more than be entertainment, and uppity women who can't handle an old fashion smack on the butt. The Fourth Reich isn't stoking fear but rather it is seizing upon hatred. No one legitimately fears the the poor migrants in the caravan rather people just hate the idea of more immigrants.

I think too many moderates and Democrats waste their time attempting to engaged in thoughtful debate with those who are plainly trolling them.  Some relationships can't be save. Sometimes a break up is in order. The GOP has already done their part. The GOP has already walked away from centrist positions and made it clear minority and women aren't welcome. Everyone else (Democrats, independents, moderates) need to stop thinking there is something we can change about ourselves to make the GOP comeback. We can't. They left us. They are with someone else now (Putin). 

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All I am hoping for is Dems take a majority in the House.  Then that opens all investigations into Trump and his grifter cronies.  Without that I am afraid Trump will go on a firing binge and get rid of Sessions and Rosenstein, and shut down Mueller. 

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23 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

All I am hoping for is Dems take a majority in the House.  Then that opens all investigations into Trump and his grifter cronies.  Without that I am afraid Trump will go on a firing binge and get rid of Sessions and Rosenstein, and shut down Mueller. 

Sessions and Rosenstein are toast after the mid-terms. There is a good change "sort of a Democrat" Mattis, Kelly, Sanders, and mnuchin are all gone as well. 

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Stephen Miller will be appointed to Grand Vizier.

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38 minutes ago, CharonY said:

Stephen Miller will be appointed to Grand Vizier Wizard

There. FTFY

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Left or right wins, what would be LESS believable, landslide or close race?

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4 minutes ago, iNow said:

Left or right wins, what would be LESS believable, landslide or close race?

What most people expect to happen is for Democrats to win the House and Republicans to keep the Senate. For me though anything seems possible. Reading about what's happening in places like GA makes me think this could be 2016 all over and despite polling Republicans eek out improvable wins with anomalously low margins for victory. A landslide for Democrats seems like the longest shot as too much is stacked against them. They have far more Senate races they need to win just to stay even and simply winning more votes hasn't seemed to be enough in the past.  

I think for sure Democratic candidates will get more votes but that is all  I know. It is anyone's guess how those votes translate into seats. 

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10 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

For me though anything seems possible.

Me too. 15% chance seems far more likely now than it ever has in the past. 

10 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

It is anyone's guess how those votes translate into seats. 

Or bomb threats, several of which we saw yesterday and today very clearly aimed at “the left.”

EDIT: They weren’t threats. They were actual effing bombs, FFS

Edited by iNow

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I would be more worried if the Republicans get crushed in the midterms.

This current President has enabled all the bat-shit crazies to act like total idiots, as demonstrated by today's events ( the mailings to the Obamas, Clintons, CNN, etc ).
I can just imagine how they'll react if their 'hero' gets a slap-down in the midterms.

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3 minutes ago, MigL said:

I would be more worried if the Republicans get crushed in the midterms.

This current President has enabled all the bat-shit crazies to act like total idiots, as demonstrated by today's events ( the mailings to the Obamas, Clintons, CNN, etc ).
I can just imagine how they'll react if their 'hero' gets a slap-down in the midterms.

Seems like either scenario ends up in the same place.

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