Edwina Lee

Florence the Hurricane

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Interesting.  Found this bit talking about it more directly.

Quote

As the cold front passed through around noon and the sunshine started poking through the overcast, Adam, Chris and I went over to the window to check it out. As we looked up, we noticed something really interesting (and yes, we know we are all weather nerds). The clouds were moving in opposite directions at different levels. You could clearly see the lower-level cumulus clouds (around 2000 feet above ground level) moving from the northeast to southeast, and the mid-level altocumulus clouds (around 10,000 feet a.g.l.) moving from the southeast to northeast. Check it out for yourself.

That’s pretty neat isn’t it? Here is what was going on in the atmosphere making that happen. The two distinct cloud levels, around 950mb and 700mb, were easy to see directly after the last rain band pushed through and there was enough dry air beginning to push in behind it. There was still enough mid-level moisture for the mid-level cloud layer to exist, but not too much cool air aloft to fill in the low-layer deck as it has now in D.C.

https://wjla.com/weather/weather-nerd-alert-here-s-something-we-found-interesting-today-10639

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Hurricane winds blow in different directions at the top and ground level. Think of it as a two whirls, going in opposite directions changing directions in the eye as the surface winds spiral up into the stratosphere and back out over the lower cloud decks. It is an odd effect, I've seen it many times, the whole hurricane is strange compared to normal thunderstorms yesterday it was almost dead calm here, almost suffocating, today the wind was blowing five to 10 mph but always in one direction as the eye approaches the wind will pick up to and beyond hurricane force and continue from the same direction, then the eye will pass over and the air will be dead calm and often very sunny then suddenly the wind will start up directly to hurricane force but from the opposite direction. You have to be careful about going outside when the eye passes or you'll be caught be the full dorce of the storm before you can get back inside... 

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I guess one can consider the hurricane as a mechanical spinning top with mass momentum pushing a bow wave, and it is propelled by pressure differences. Whatever weather ahead of it would be whatever it is.

One should also expect the hurricane weaken when the surround wind are blowing in opposite direction from the spin. This appears to be happening as it has now weakened to a category 2.

 

Edited by Edwina Lee
Event update

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2 hours ago, Edwina Lee said:

I guess one can consider the hurricane as a mechanical spinning top with mass momentum pushing a bow wave, and it is propelled by pressure differences. Whatever weather ahead of it would be whatever it is.

One should also expect the hurricane weaken when the surround wind are blowing in opposite direction from the spin. This appears to be happening as it has now weakened to a category 2.

 

No you are mistaken, the air flows do not cancel each other they complement each other, the lessening of the hurricanes winds is caused by things like ocean temps and wind shear. 

 

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/cdb9bde1-df1c-4325-8810-fd99ac44d65e-151230203327/95/tropical-cyclones-presentation-19811988-4-638.jpg?cb=1451507711

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I see, that's how the hurricane engine works

I'm amazed that Thomas Jefferson said that in your quotes.

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I can see that if it continues in the mean predicted path, then the surge would not be very high except for the coast on the upper side. 

Heavy flooding on land though.

It won't be anything as spectacular as the Fukushima sunami.  :lol:

 

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So far it's unimpressive but the main part is still offshore... 

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It's the ocean swell which appears prior to arrival of the storm which causes most damage and flooding. The next thing to watch is how long the storm hovers overhead and how many thousands of gallons of water it drops on the land and spaces below.

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Live cam, I live closest to Wrightsville Beach...

 

 

 

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No good. This claim of imminent disaster is getting limper minute by minute.  :lol:

The local reporter Michael Howard standing in the rain headlined his video 'Power beyond words' - up to 70 mph wind & tropical rain fall.

He stood there almost straight, then tried leaning into the wind but it wasn't strong enough to show much of a gradient, then bent his spine to create the illusion of a gradient.  :lol:

Loads of live webcam & live programmes are trained onto various spots in the hurricane's path, but lacking in relative location & direction information.

And not even a wave big enough for seeing!

A disaster in media broadcasting really. :lol:

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Better to over prepare than under for a Hurricane. Was barreling in as a Cat 4. Sandy, in comparison, was a pleasant Cat 3.

Still need to see how the flooding goes.

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59 minutes ago, Edwina Lee said:

A disaster in media broadcasting really. 

Not really. Depends on their objective.

If they wish to drive viewership and ratings then they're winning.

If they wish to inform people on current status then they're winning.

If they wish to educate people on how hurricanes work then they're winning.

If they wish to maximize chances at saving life and personal safety then they're winning.

If they wish to be 100% accurate weather forecasters and prognosticators? Well, then there's surely always room for improvement, but calling it a disaster for media broadcasting is more than hyperbolic, it's dumb.

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43 minutes ago, iNow said:

Not really. Depends on their objective.

If they wish to drive viewership and ratings then they're winning.

If they wish to inform people on current status then they're winning.

If they wish to educate people on how hurricanes work then they're winning.

If they wish to maximize chances at saving life and personal safety then they're winning.

If they wish to be 100% accurate weather forecasters and prognosticators? Well, then there's surely always room for improvement, but calling it a disaster for media broadcasting is more than hyperbolic, it's dumb.

Reminds me of the case in Italy in which six Italian scientists (and a public official) were convicted for manslaughter because they did not accurately predicted the risk of a major earthquake resulting in over 300 victims. Realistically, there are almost always folks staying behind in potential danger zones (sometimes by choice, sometimes not). Thus, erring on the higher risk side is often much better for public safety. Imagine if the news guy says, well, it is wet but not that bad, and folks start drowning because they were in a higher risk zone without realizing it...

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Come on guys. Viewers are bound to be frustrated by the lack of catastrophic effects.

Will they watch again the next time?

Time to switch to typhoon Manghut (real Category 5 and 2 x size of Florence):-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1017681/super-typhoon-mangkhut-path-track-philippines-hurricane-florence-ompong-weather-update

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45517803

 

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21 minutes ago, Edwina Lee said:

Come on guys. Viewers are bound to be frustrated by the lack of catastrophic effects.

Will they watch again the next time?

Time to switch to typhoon Manghut (real Category 5 and 2 x size of Florence):-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1017681/super-typhoon-mangkhut-path-track-philippines-hurricane-florence-ompong-weather-update

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45517803

 

It's set to drop 19.6 cubic miles, 18 trillion gallons, of water on N.Carolina. The real danger from this event is it's slow moving nature over the ocean, giving it time to accumulate serious amounts of water.

Edited by StringJunky

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22 minutes ago, Edwina Lee said:

Come on guys. Viewers are bound to be frustrated by the lack of catastrophic effects.

Will they watch again the next time?

Time to switch to typhoon Manghut (real Category 5 and 2 x size of Florence):-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1017681/super-typhoon-mangkhut-path-track-philippines-hurricane-florence-ompong-weather-update

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45517803

 

If anyone was overstating things, it was Trump.

"This is going to be a very large one ... It's tremendously big and tremendously wet. Tremendous amounts of water."

But that's the media's fault right?

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3 hours ago, rangerx said:

If anyone was overstating things, it was Trump.

"This is going to be a very large one ... It's tremendously big and tremendously wet. Tremendous amounts of water."

But that's the media's fault right?

Just because it came out of Trump's mouth does not mean it can't have some truth to it...

...it may not have made landfall blowing as hard as Trump himself, but it is very large, very wet, and very dangerous

Edited by J.C.MacSwell

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7 minutes ago, Edwina Lee said:

Admit it guys. Philippines' storm is twice the size of your Florence. :P

In what universe do you live in that you think anyone is rooting for devastation? So far the death toll is at 5, which is a tragedy for those families, hopefully there will not be anymore. I hope everyone in the Carolinas are safe and the storm passes as uneventfully as possible. 

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I’ll withhold judgment until storm is over. 

7 hours ago, CharonY said:

Reminds me of the case in Italy in which six Italian scientists (and a public official) were convicted for manslaughter because they did not accurately predicted the risk of a major earthquake resulting in over 300 victims. R

I remember that appallingly stupid ruling. Ugh. Humans 

Edited by iNow

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May be, as human beings, we need safe exposure to catastrophies to keep our internal states in healthy balance; since after all, we are evolved through extreme  trials of survival.

To me, watching catastrophies and caring for people is like the separation of sex and love, or like puppy play versus hunting.

As for tendency to litigate, I think it is related to a fundamental thought mechanism to finding cause & effect, and fused with bureaucratic encouragement. So we get from patients blaming doctors for not being perfect, to blaming scientists for inaccurate predictions.

 

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Not sure if you guys have seen the video of this weatherman from TWC yet, but it made me think of this thread. 

Note the people coming into the background at around the 15 second mark.  This guy's funny.

 

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I am glad that you find humour in the situation. Meanwhile over a dozen people have been killed by Florence and the toll from the typhoon Mangkhut has reached close to a hundred (with numbers probably going to rise).

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