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Ian Zonja

How Long Earth Can Stand The Pollution?

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Greetings,

I am trying to understand how serious is current situation of pollution on the planet? How long should it stand until everything collapse? I know it is hard to answer this question, but someone more knowledgeable than me should be able to say something more about this topic. Reasons and consequences preferable! 

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The challenge with your question is we must make certain assumptions about the global political response. Before we can model the possible future, we must start by making decisions about humans will change their behaviors (and predictions are hard, especially about the future!).

The answer will be extremely different if we stop polluting 100% immediately than it will be if we gradually stop polluting over the next 100 or 1,000 years or if we don't change at all. Note that I include CO2 in my use of the word "pollution," but intend to refer to more than just that.

Earth has survived massive comet impacts, extreme volcanic and seismic activity, has gone through ice ages and solar storms and hosted vast epochs of life and change and much more. The earth will be fine. It's us and the other life on it that could be in trouble.

Some useful information and helpful links available for you to explore here: https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-pollutant-advanced.htm

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2 hours ago, Ian Zonja said:

How much do you estimate we could have a huge problem?

I'm certain we will encounter problems and have zero doubt we will need to take massive action to address the suffering we will inevitably cause (human suffering, animal suffering, plant die-offs, etc.). The issues of agriculture and feeding our population, fighting over drinkable water, and evacuating coastal areas are the most immediate in my mind.

Unfortunately, I don't have a good article or publication to share with you and these are just my thoughts, but I'm also not an expert in this space. Like you, I'm just an interested observer who cares.

As for your question about being scared, try to remember: Fear doesn't help us to think rationally and solve big problems, and rational thinking about big solutions is exactly what we need right now.

Edited by iNow

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On 9/21/2017 at 7:35 AM, iNow said:

As for your question about being scared, try to remember: Fear doesn't help us to think rationally and solve big problems, and rational thinking about big solutions is exactly what we need right now.

Like a miracle?

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28 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

Like a miracle?

I'd use different terms to describe what we need... Like focus and passion.

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Just now, iNow said:

I'd use different terms to describe what we need... Like focus and passion.

Solar power is about to become cheaper then oil for the first time ever somebody told me.

Or already has.

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On 19-9-2017 at 5:36 PM, Ian Zonja said:

How long should it stand until everything collapse?

Pollution can make certain systems collapse by poisoning creatures that fulfill a certain niche.

EVERYTHING collapsing is nigh impossible;

it's best to look at matter first, i ll try to discern 3 categories(more are possible):

1) certain matters are biologically usable; they can be made part of the bio-mass(=animals, plants)

2) other materials aren't realy usable by(/in) lifeforms (most metals)

pollution would have to continue for a huuuge time before we 'd run out of matter for bio-mass

3) the third category are materials that would poison creatures;

these materials could/would be consumed by creatures that cannot handle these materials,

(ps:many materials are not poisonous untill taken in in large enough quantities)

radio-active  materials can be counted under the third category.

 

The materials under category 2 and 3 do not necessarily increase, though they are pulled out of the earth and thrown into the atmosphere(=biosphere)

(regional) eco-systems can(and have) fallen due to pollution, generally speaking the first ones to observe it happening are locals near the eco-system,

not people local to the polluting factory(/car/cow/..)

Humans getting poisoned until civilised systems fall/fail because of pullution ... well, i doubt even the Chinese would ever allow thát to happen.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Raider5678 said:

Solar power is about to become cheaper then oil for the first time ever somebody told me.

They are not comparable. In solar panel you invest once, then you can use the next 20-30 years, without significant costs, until it breaks (with tiny decrease of power after many years of usage).

Oil you have to buy day by day. One day oil price on stock market is $145.31 per barrel in July 2008, the next couple months it dropped to $30.28 in Dec 2008. Just an example.

You can't predict price of oil in couple months/weeks, not to mention period of 20-30 years.

It can, and will, go high, when oil wells will be running out of oil, one by one. High demand for limited good results in increased price.

I am great fan of solar panels. I would use them everywhere, if I could, and only after exhausting accumulators use regular power supply.

 

 

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On 9/22/2017 at 5:12 PM, Sensei said:

I am great fan of solar panels. I would use them everywhere, if I could, and only after exhausting accumulators use regular power supply.

Bill Nye saves the world, S1E1: one of the panelists, an engineer, claims the entire world energy consumption could be covered completely with regenerative energy. We have the technology and the resources. And it would only cost a few hundred billion dollars. The Gross World Product is in the vicinity of 100 trillion dollars. If we consider that it will take 10-20 years to realize this if we commit to this, it would be a negligible fraction of our global economic power.

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It’s really bad ppl are not taken in consideration the soil toxicity which will ruffle take about 10yrs to lose 25% of the globes fertile farm land .we need to start shooting rubbish into space and turn all public transports electric.and regardless of that there’s to much ppl on the planet in 5 yrs it’s gonna be 20billion . At a time when we need more resources we’re destroying them

 

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14 minutes ago, Paul Singh Jr said:

and regardless of that there’s to much ppl on the planet in 5 yrs it’s gonna be 20billion .

Where do you get that from? That would be almost triple the population in 5 years. I don't think that is biologically possible.

The current UN prediction is "World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100"

https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html

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2 hours ago, Paul Singh Jr said:

we need to start shooting rubbish into space

Not this, not ever. Far too costly, far too risky, and it doesn't address the reasons we create the rubbish. Even if we could figure a cheap way to send it to space, we'd just be using resources up at the same rate. We have ways of making sustainable products, but current manufacturers have a LOT invested in the current infrastructure, and don't want to spend the money to change. 

It would be far better to start making our plastic products from plants.

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14 hours ago, Paul Singh Jr said:

It’s really bad ppl are not taken in consideration the soil toxicity which will ruffle take about 10yrs to lose 25% of the globes fertile farm land .we need to start shooting rubbish into space and turn all public transports electric.and regardless of that there’s to much ppl on the planet in 5 yrs it’s gonna be 20billion . At a time when we need more resources we’re destroying them

You're right we need action, not foolish words with no basis in reality; that just helps the Donald's of this world. 

We don't need to lie, or make stuff up, the shit is on the doorstep and a golf club won't help. IOW we need sensible/workable idea's that we can all get behind.

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They have got a cheap way they built a gun to launch satellites in the 60s . It’s a common and it s the cheapest way for us to get non living things into space 

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3 hours ago, Paul Singh Jr said:

They have got a cheap way they built a gun to launch satellites in the 60s . It’s a common and it s the cheapest way for us to get non living things into space 

Why isn't it used, then?

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On 9/22/2017 at 4:12 PM, Sensei said:

They are not comparable. In solar panel you invest once, then you can use the next 20-30 years, without significant costs, until it breaks (with tiny decrease of power after many years of usage).

Oil you have to buy day by day. One day oil price on stock market is $145.31 per barrel in July 2008, the next couple months it dropped to $30.28 in Dec 2008. Just an example.

You can't predict price of oil in couple months/weeks, not to mention period of 20-30 years.

It can, and will, go high, when oil wells will be running out of oil, one by one. High demand for limited good results in increased price.

I am great fan of solar panels. I would use them everywhere, if I could, and only after exhausting accumulators use regular power supply.

 

 

I can make the comparison quite easily.

I go to the bank and explain that I want to put solar panels on my house to heat it (instead of using oil fired heating).

I don't have the cash to pay for it, so I want a loan.

And, as you say, the panels last about 25 years so I will take out a loan over that period. (In principle,I can then take out another loan for new panels when I need them.

And the bank will be happy to tell me what the loan would cost- in terms of monthly repayments.

I can then simply compare one set of monthly bills (oil + delivery etc) with the other (loan repayment etc.)

(There are maintenance costs too but I can simply include them in my calculation)

Now, it's not unreasonable for me to assume that the price of oil will rise- and it's possible that the interest rate will change. But, for now, I can compare the two options.

 

Incidentally...

"You can't predict price of oil"

"It can, and will, go high,"

You just predicted it.

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1 minute ago, John Cuthber said:

I can make the comparison quite easily.

I go to the bank and explain that I want to put solar panels on my house to heat it (instead of using oil fired heating).

I don't have the cash to pay for it, so I want a loan.

And, as you say, the panels last about 25 years so I will take out a loan over that period. (In principle,I can then take out another loan for new panels when I need them.

And the bank will be happy to tell me what the loan would cost- in terms of monthly repayments.

I can then simply compare one set of monthly bills (oil + delivery etc) with the other (loan repayment etc.)

(There are maintenance costs too but I can simply include them in my calculation)

Now, it's not unreasonable for me to assume that the price of oil will rise- and it's possible that the interest rate will change. But, for now, I can compare the two options.

 

Incidentally...

"You can't predict price of oil"

"It can, and will, go high,"

You just predicted it.

It is so cool to read your invaluable input, John, but yours Saturday post, is delayed by two years... Notice when my post was made...

ps. It's good to sober prior reply, don't you think?

ps2. There should be added option to this forum "I am drinking".. whenever somebody drinks at weekend, presses button, which automatically delays his or her reply the all messages to forum..

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Sensei said:

It is so cool to read your invaluable input, John, but yours Saturday post, is delayed by two years... Notice when my post was made...

ps. It's good to sober prior reply, don't you think?

ps2. There should be added option to this forum "I am drinking".. whenever somebody drinks at weekend, presses button, which automatically delays his or her reply the all messages to forum..

 

 

Close, bu no cigar.
This post


was the one I made when I got back from the pub.
As for pointing out your glitch- better late than never.

Incidentally, "sober" isn't usually a verb.

"Sober up" is.

So you should say " It's good to sober up prior to replying, don't you think?"

But I think you are right about your 2nd PS.

(and I think some might benefit from an "I'm stoned" warning too.)

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I love you John, regardless you're drunk, or stoned..

 

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Nothing will change until the problem is highlighted.most ppl think we don’t need to worry because we won’t see the effect for another 20/30years but with in 5/10 years I see a food crisis like the Great Depression of the 1920

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32 minutes ago, Paul Singh Jr said:

Nothing will change until the problem is highlighted.most ppl think we don’t need to worry because we won’t see the effect for another 20/30years but with in 5/10 years I see a food crisis like the Great Depression of the 1920

Nothing will change because the problem happens tomorrow; and however relevant, history is, it won't happen tomorrow...

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On 7/22/2019 at 12:45 AM, Phi for All said:

Not this, not ever. Far too costly, far too risky, and it doesn't address the reasons we create the rubbish. Even if we could figure a cheap way to send it to space, we'd just be using resources up at the same rate. We have ways of making sustainable products, but current manufacturers have a LOT invested in the current infrastructure, and don't want to spend the money to change. 

It would be far better to start making our plastic products from plants.

Totally agree with a lot what ur saying but as u said the world is not set up like that at the moment 

 

On 8/24/2019 at 9:16 AM, Strange said:

Why isn't it used, then?

It is only used to send satellites in to orbit and tbh I’m not sure if it’s still in use but I don’t think they thought about using it for that purpose. 

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7 minutes ago, Paul Singh Jr said:

It is only used to send satellites in to orbit and tbh I’m not sure if it’s still in use but I don’t think they thought about using it for that purpose. 

So not common. And, presumably because it isn't used, not cheap (or not practical) either.

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On 7/21/2019 at 10:03 PM, Strange said:

Where do you get that from? That would be almost triple the population in 5 years. I don't think that is biologically possible.

The current UN prediction is "World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100"

https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html

The UN like to hide there problems until they have a solution or until it’s to public just Incase they need to use drastic measures 

 

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