I was curious and so I decided to do a little digging and it turns out trade conflicts and escalations were quite apparent in the lead up to both World Wars.

While correlation does not equal causation, I can't help but wonder if escalating trade conflicts happening amongst other preamble criteria, could be a potential predictor of a third world war.

I am curious about who exactly benefits from trade wars really? Orange Voldemort is assuming these tariffs will make America a lot of money, money for what? More money for his businesses and his butt buddies businesses to squeeze out of Americans? To fund foreign military campaigns? I've heard some talk that it's an attempt at a J-curve, slow down the economy for a reset. I don't really understand economics that well but I have a feeling that there will be no meaningful economic rebound from this anytime soon.

Should also be noted that on a personal level I believe we are already in a cold start third World War and predict that future historians will mark the beginning of the war as sometime behind us already.

Trading rivalry is probably the largest casus belli in history and goes back as far as history itself.

While correlation does not equal causation, I can't help but wonder if escalating trade conflicts happening amongst other preamble criteria, could be a potential predictor of a third world war.

Trade wars are also an expression of nationalism and has at least some ideological foundation. Also, one should add that the idea of free trade was mostly a post WW idea. In some ways protectionism was the norm rather the exception in the olden days.

You could argue the reverse, free trade and interconnection of global economies is (was) one of the mechanisms which made large-scale wars less likely.

Trading rivalry is probably the largest casus belli in history and goes back as far as history itself.

I would say that owing someone a debt was one of the most common reasons for murdering that person, so as not to have to pay the debt.. War between countries is just an extrapolation of this to the large scale and in white gloves.

Edited April 8Apr 8 by Sensei

I would say that owing someone a debt was one of the most common reasons for murdering that person, so as not to have to pay the debt.. War between countries is just an extrapolation of this to the large scale and in white gloves.

Tariffs and trade deficits are not related to debt, however. And generally speaking most do not think that a trade deficit on its own is a meaningful indicator.

Tariffs and trade deficits are not related to debt, however. And generally speaking most do not think that a trade deficit on its own is a meaningful indicator.

I think it only really matters if there were no other players and the respective countries relied on each other as their only import/export partners. The trouble with Trump is that he arbitrarily makes up his own correlation/causation relationships. with no foundation in economic reality. The real question, and I'm not being flippant, is what do you do with a moron at the wheel? You can't intellectualise about the motives and actions of a person like him when he doesn't function that way (putting it kindly).

Edited April 9Apr 9 by StringJunky

The real question, and I'm not being flippant, is what do you do with a moron at the wheel? You can't intellectualise about the motives and actions of a person like him when he doesn't function that way (putting it kindly).

I think we are about to find out. And the direction it is going is apparently to cover up stupidity, rather than trying to correct it.

I think it only really matters if there were no other players and the respective countries relied on each other as their only import/export partners

Probably, though even then I would think (without having any real knowledge on that matter) that for example the relative size and types of economies would matter, too. For example. the US has transitioned from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. While the latter does not ship goods, it still results in a huge amount of money influx (and in many cases more than balances deficits). Likewise, if a smaller country delivers valuable resources to a larger one, but cannot afford the higher-end products that the other economy produces, it can cause an imbalance, but as the larger economy ultimately might make profits within its borders, it is not really a loss.

In other words, trade is clearly not a zero-sum game and having someone trying to control it without really understanding it, does not lead to good results. Same issue with central planning of Soviet economy.

Fox News complains about tariffs. WTF.

I think we are about to find out. And the direction it is going is apparently to cover up stupidity, rather than trying to correct it.

I'm of the opinion that with a moron at the wheel, a shameless self serving opportunist will become a manipulative backseat driver until they are ready to take control for themselves.

Sidenote; it wouldn't let me quote just a selection of what you said like it did before the migration. I had to quote all and trim it down.

One thing I don't know is if there have ever been any global Trade wars that had a similar scale to this massive one Trump is starting now.

There is a videogame I enjoy playing, it's called Mount and Blade II: Bannerlord. The reason I bring it up is that I'm currently on a playthrough where I decided to wage solo warfare on a kingdom that is rich, massive and geographically isolated in comparison with the other factions. One exploit you can do, prior to having your own kingdom, is join any of the factions as a mercenary and then attack other factions, in the host factions name. So I joined the Saranids as a mercenary, attacked all 7 of the other kingdoms. Left the Saranids to having to deal with massive trade embargos, war on all fronts and the prospect of having to make massive monetary concessions to end just a few of the wars I started on their behalf. Then I proceeded to launch a campaign in their own territory.

I guess what I'm wondering, is whether or not Trump is really getting his marching orders, either directly or indirectly from Putin. It seems like Russia is the one with the most to gain from the USA picking fights with... Well everyone. Trump is crippling the global economy while the enemy is in Ukraine. He's also stealing all the media oxygen from what Russia is doing because compatibly speaking, Russia is just picking on Ukraine, the USA is trying to overtly bully everyone at once. Which looks worse?

The demonisation fodder the USA has become for Russia, probably has the entire Kremlin in stitches laughing.

What I also wonder, is besides Trump himself, who in his circle with a fair amount of influence over Trump, could also be directly a Russian asset?

it wouldn't let me quote just a selection of what you said like it did before the migration. I had to quote all and trim it down.

User error, at least if on mobile

I don't know is if there have ever been any global Trade wars that had a similar scale to this massive one Trump is starting now.

Look at right before great depression

How would it be user error if the option to "quote selection"isn't even available to me, was kind of hard to miss before. That would be a mobile interface error. Just saying.

Also whatever part you were trying to quote when you referenced the great depression, didn't show up either. Just looks like empty quotes.

I do use mobile for this though and so have come to expect limited functionality in general as a rule wherever I am on the Internet. Not something I'm really sweating, just flagging for admin to be aware of should it be fixable.

Thankfully the administration here is miles better than whatever mess you call the US government now. That doesn't even resemble coherent administration.

Your experience apparently isn’t equivalent to mine

One thing I don't know is if there have ever been any global Trade wars that had a similar scale to this massive one Trump is starting now.

Depends a lot on the metrics you are using. Global trade has a much higher volume than it had in past times. The current world trade volume is somewhere around 25 trillion. In the 1950 that was about 62 billion according to the world bank. So the absolute impact is much higher.

Whether Trump is getting suggestions from Russia or not is probably secondary as whatever he is doing is not really distinguishable from being, you know, a moron.

Depends a lot on the metrics you are using. Global trade has a much higher volume than it had in past times. The current world trade volume is somewhere around 25 trillion. In the 1950 that was about 62 billion according to the world bank. So the absolute impact is much higher.

Whether Trump is getting suggestions from Russia or not is probably secondary as whatever he is doing is not really distinguishable from being, you know, a moron.

One of the metrics would be players in the game. Scale here is more to do with how many opponents have been picked out over how much actual trade is going on.

Tariffs and trade deficits are not related to debt, however. And generally speaking most do not think that a trade deficit on its own is a meaningful indicator.

Indeed, I can't remember where I heard it, but a great analogy is, "it's like trying to drive a car, legally, with the only working indicator being the oil pressure gauge.".

Indeed, I can't remember where I heard it, but a great analogy is, "it's like trying to drive a car, legally, with the only working indicator being the oil pressure gauge.".

Or trying to measure the temperature on your forehead by calculating your distance from Sagittarius A.

In other news, it would appear that Trump is blinking on the tariffs, except with China. For some reason investors are already breathing signs of relief and the market is already rebounding, even though the uncertainty producing clown who started it all, on a fucking whim, is still in the white house.

AP News

Wall Street poised to give back some of the historic gain...

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 8.3% in morning trading to 34,353.17, zooming upward as soon as trading began. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 soared 4.71%.

Or trying to measure the temperature on your forehead by calculating your distance from Sagittarius A.

In other news, it would appear that Trump is blinking on the tariffs, except with China. For some reason investors are already breathing signs of relief and the market is already rebounding, even though the uncertainty producing clown who started it all, on a fucking whim, is still in the white house.

AP News

Wall Street poised to give back some of the historic gain...

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 8.3% in morning trading to 34,353.17, zooming upward as soon as trading began. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 soared 4.71%.

Well, you're no fun...

If the goal was really to level the playing field and not to just transfer wealth, it seems to me the US would be much farther ahead to drop the idea of tariffs and just require that EVERY product and service bought or sold in the country follow US law from conception to exploration, extraction, refinement, manufacture, assembly, transport, storage and sale. If companies had to; pay at least US minimum wage, (no matter where they were located), allow unions, follow environmental laws, etc, it would take away nearly all of the incentive to be offshore to begin with and allow workers in the poor countries to afford to buy things beyond a subsistence existence.

Well, you're no fun...

Not something you'd say if you'd ever had a drink with me 😂

That could be fun though, an SFN zoom call casual drinking meet n greet.

BuzzFeed

18 Screenshots Showing MAGA Supporters Turning On Trump A...

"You decimated middle class retirement funds with this trade war. I cannot support you any longer. You crushed my ability to retire."

But here is something that will make you life. All these Dump supporters realizing we were right all along! He doesn't care about the middle class? Gee, I wonder what gave them that impression...

One of the metrics would be players in the game. Scale here is more to do with how many opponents have been picked out over how much actual trade is going on.

I think the point I am trying to make is that the trade landscape has changed and expanded massively post WW so any historic comparison will be difficult. Number of players is probably also not a good metric, as, well historically there were way fewer players, and some potential players were still colonies.

The most famous large-scale tariffs in the US was probably the Smoot-Hawley act in 1930 and it is being used as an example how economically disastrous this approach is and I don't think that many have attempted something similar after seeing its impacct. Now, obviously no one knows what the actual heck is going on right now in the US, but comparisons that were made just after the announcement (using the weird reciprocal table they had) suggest that in terms of effective tariffs on US imports in percent, it would surpass the Smoot-Hawly. The lattter was wround 20% and the reciprocal tariffs were estimated to land around 24ish, but again, who knows? The administration certainly doesn't.

I think the point I am trying to make is that the trade landscape has changed and expanded massively post WW so any historic comparison will be difficult. Number of players is probably also not a good metric, as, well historically there were way fewer players, and some potential players were still colonies.

I think that's why history is so easily dismissed, by those that don't dare look; this time is different bc the metaphors aren't quite analogous...

Not something you'd say if you'd ever had a drink with me 😂

That could be fun though, an SFN zoom call casual drinking meet n greet.

BuzzFeed

18 Screenshots Showing MAGA Supporters Turning On Trump A...

"You decimated middle class retirement funds with this trade war. I cannot support you any longer. You crushed my ability to retire."

But here is something that will make you life. All these Dump supporters realizing we were right all along! He doesn't care about the middle class? Gee, I wonder what gave them that impression...

Not every monster turns out to be monstrous, some are just confused...

But get lucky.😉

Edited April 11Apr 11 by dimreepr

A good way to bank...