MSC

Yeah I saw that about teamsters. Can't believe so many of it's members are Trump supporters, talk about kissing the hand that will beat you... The latest quinnipac(probably spelled incorrectly) poll shows Harris quite a bit ahead in Pennsylvania, and narrowly ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. I wonder what the betting odds are for The fat man having a heart attack or something before the election are? Honestly that would feel like a dream!

Yeah I had heard about this. Was hoping George W Bush himself was going to give his endorsement but I guess for an ex Republican president, not endorsing the GOP candidate says a lot on it's own. There is also a data scientist who has accurately predicted not just presidential races but Senate ones too, using betting data instead of survey polls, odd setters phrasing questions like "who do you believe will win?" Instead of "who do you want to win?" And the reliability of constantly updated odds data 24/7 through this guys methods, predicts a landslide for Harris coming.

If someone throws a rock at your head, you don't typically blame the rock.

At first I thought this was going to be about how there is no scientific evidence of a conspiracy in things like flat earth beliefs so they aren't theories but hypotheses. If the post had been about that, I'd have said "yeah, completely overused." But now I'm not really sure how OP is defining these terms.

Great summary! Thanks for sharing! It should be noted also that it is thought that rated choice voting would also have the benefit of encouraging civil campaigns and it avoids pivotal voter issues in RCV, rooted in mathematics, that can potentially still lead to minority rule or unfavourable candidates still winning elections without having a majority first choice position. Unfortunately though, public awareness of the choices is about 70 years behind the academic literature on this, as reflected in that RCV has not got many real world examples and SV has even less. There is also the massive hurdle of maintaining trust in elections while switching to a new style of voting. Particularly voting types that are more complex than first past the post. Lay people gravitate toward simplicity and in trying to convince others to switch, you also have to convince them they've been doing it wrong for a long time. In a 2 party dominated system this difficulty is increased as at any one time close to half of the electorate will have gotten their way in the last election anyway and so will see less need for change. Something that could at least blunt the effects of the electoral college though, sooner rather than later, is the national popular vote interstate compact (NPVIC). A number of states have currently already signed on to this, but if enough of them did, the EC would become completely toothless. This is a pact between states to award all of their electoral college votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote in all 50 states.

Ranked choice voting and rated choice voting aren't the same thing. Ranked choice is better than fptp but rated choice is allegedly better than ranked choice, if I understand the theory correctly as it avoids specific problems that can arise in rated choice and fptp. This video explains the differences, just have some coffee beforehand as it gets complicated when it starts to explain the pitfalls of the different voting systems!

A little birdie told me they didn't even have an eagle eye view of the perimeter... The least he could have done (TFG) is have more than one type of stroke that day...

Now that distinction between success and attempts is very much not picked up on enough it seems, because this is the first time I've seen that claim. Thanks for the explanation, I was quite unaware.

Oh wow really? Not even on the public schedule? Yup, just makes it sound more and more like the local Florida guy was just out for a wee walk. Elon Musk and others decided to react by encouraging attempts on Biden and Harris. Honestly at this point I don't know who society should be more worried about. Trump or Musk? My money is on Musk. Dude literally has plans resembling evil Daniel Jackson from that one "it was all a dream" episode of Stargate. Satellites in orbit, chips in peoples heads, his dirty hands in so many different infrastructure pies I mean the dude clearly has a snake in his head.... And so does Mr Burns.

I'd argue that it is too soon to be talking about some new form of government when we haven't even figured out how to create equitable voting systems. Looking at you first past the post voting and the electoral college! Rated choice voting is my preference.

Didn't science figure out how procreation even happens? Making it easier for people to procreate due to the knowledge of how it actually works? What is IVF?

Likewise, however the jury is out on the second guy since he never got the chance to fire a shot. Could have been a great marksman for all we know. That said 500 yards with an Ak-47 isn't an easy shot to make. Guy went about it all wrong, without talking about the morality of the action at all, it's implementation practically was so flawed. Shoulda just set a hidden stake pit out on the green of the 7th hole during the night. Honestly I think the only way for it to happen that would leave people more in awe than anger would be for a black star college quarterback to take him out with a football thrown from a ridiculous range. Can't get more American than that! Dear NSA, I'm joking, calm down! Honestly though, it's Florida. Guy could have just been out on a stroll with his pet gun!

Not done reading through everything yet, but this stuck out to me as a bit false. Men are far more likely to commit suicide and are more likely to be the victims of physical violence. In general I don't feel like people are being charitable enough in their interpretation of the OP. It may be that posting in the politics channel has some in an unsuitable mindset to interact with the post. (Although I've now seen things got a little heated in the 2nd page) What I will say to the OP however, is that human health can be broken down into a set of different problems to solve, men and women's health sharing similarities and differences that connect with each other through interaction. Now in terms of researchers and experts, as a species we need them in the fields of mens health, women's health and we still need experts in human health issues that affect both. We have all of that. So I'm assuming the problem OP is trying to address is the frequency at which uninformed and ignorant discussions/debates happen in these areas by laypeople, discussions which do more harm than good because they are expressly for the purposes of acquiring likes, followers, post interaction etc. I don't think OP comes across as an all lives matter advocate or someone who is asking for any sort of priority of one groups issues over another, to me this reads more like the sort of thing you'd read in intersectional feminism literature. @iNow is correct though, equality is very much not present in our society and poopooing the attempts of those who are mainly focused on those who are most trodden upon, by way of having the most issues of inequality, is like trying to repair the smallest hull breaches in a sinking ship as opposed to the ones that are actually huge. I mean you can choose as an individual where you want to focus more and if OP wants to put his time into different areas of discussion as opposed to any kind of men vs women and who is more important type of thing, he can. But that shouldn't have to disrupt a woman advocating for her right to choose or a man advocating for his right to mental healthcare or whatever other issues you can think of that requires it's own advocates. The fight for equality across the board is a war. But each issue is a battle that must be had. Although the ideal is us fixing all of these issues at once, that just isn't really possible. It's a massive problem that really does need to be broken down into smaller parts.

It's funny because before the debate, Trump-friendly pundits were literally saying that the victor always is the first to ask for another debate with a mind to ride the momentum to another win while confidence is high. They must be eating those words now!

I wonder; if a poll was conducted just of men, would we see a divide in support for Trump and Harris based on parental differences? Will men who are fathers to girls be more likely to vote for Harris vs men who are either childless or only fathers to boys? As for what you said about the GOP being better at branding themselves pro economy, I wonder what it would actually take to debunk this myth for people. Great responses btw, I really appreciate you guys. I think it may have more to do with the Internet giving teeth to most points of historical contention, controversy and disagreement. While also inviting more people into the discussion than were able to in pre-internet days. The Internet is a double edged sword in that it can drastically expand the reach of any thought, message, idea, truth or falsehood. As well as the speed which it does this. A lot of people don't even realize that fax wasn't just replaced by email, it was completely and totally outperformed by email. The number of documents that started to be sent by email over fax was increased by over 1000% as the time it took to send 1 document and the time it took to send 200 were virtually the same. In summary, the Internet made every view, debate and argument much louder in our lives. Pre-internet if you wanted to hear someone discuss the differences between men and women, you had to attend a lecture, read a book, watch the right TV show or listen to the right radio show, or maybe you just discussed this stuff with friends at the pub, but you really had to go out of your way. Now you have 100s of options of where to go to discuss these things at the push of a button. The Internet has in some way become a magnifying glass or a microscope to what Jung called the collective consciousness. Everything from good and bad, best and worst, exciting and mundane, true and false, about humanity and how we think, feel and interact is now much louder.

This is something I just don't understand but then maybe I've just read too much Beauvoir. Seriously why do men find Trump more attractive as a presidential candidate? Why do so many people seem to be under the impression that Trump was better for the economy too? Also why do so many people seem to be under the impression that tariffs are paid by the exporters of goods when it's always been the importers that pay the tariffs? Why is that very basic fact not even talked about in the news that much?

Apparently they are coming from everywhere! All I can say is to trust me that if the majority of the prison and insane asylum populations of Scotland, were in the USA... You'd all fuckin know about it, 100%! As Mark Renton puts it; He's no wrang! Yet half the population of the USA want to vote for someone with half that in their veins?! Mental, pure mental. Anyway guys, I cooked too much dog for myself and I can't eat another bite. Who wants a piece? On a more serious note; Was oh so satisfying to watch Trump get his ass handed to him by Harris last night. So predictable though that the Republican side was going to call foul on the ref because Donald Dump can't get it up anymore.. I keep seeing the same criticism that Trump had harder questions than Harris, then they'd cite which questions and J6 would get brought up and I was just thinking to myself "Well how can you ask her a question of the same difficulty when she hasn't herself ever engaged in an insurrection against the USA? You literally cannot turn around and ask Harris about her past criminal convictions, because she doesn't have any!" I mean it just seems obvious to me that the person with more to answer for would end up with "more difficult" questions. The lesson couldn't be clearer. Don't do messed up shit, don't get asked about messed up shit.

I can kind of understand the strategy a bit though, while morally disagreeing with it. I agree it's out of complete political self interest, but I'm wondering if in her head she believes Trump will lose to a woman of colour and so in 2028 she believes she may be seen as a potential Republican foil to Harris. She is definitely not done trying to run for president and will probably take another shot at the next Republican ticket in 28. By not alienating herself completely from Trump's base of supporters she is hoping she may have a chance with them if Trump is incapable of running again in 2028. As for GWB, not voting for the Republican candidate is a rebuke in and of itself and I think to some extent he is still playing politics out of a desire to survive in an uncertain future. Attacks on politicians are up and even those with secret service security details have good reason to be nervous considering the violent inclinations of Trump supporters and fringe Republican weirdos. If Trump wins, GWB can claim neutrality to stave off the inevitable accusations of betrayal from Trump and his brood. If Trump loses, not endorsing Harris might be what saves GWB and others from attack in a civil war in the style of the Irish "troubles" which is what I think it would likely morph into, but supersize me Americanized troubles that will make the IRA look like kittens.

Hey, at least me crying "freeedom!" will still make sense!

Lol trust me we aren't flooding in and I'd never have been able to get a work visa without a specialized degree and experience in some kind of job that pays 6 figures. Me meeting my wife was a fluke. That said, in two years I'll be eligible to naturalise and I'll just be another crazy American! Oh it can get worse and with individuals like Trump, who like to blame others for their failures, it's only a matter of time before they accuse their own followers of not being loyal enough in a deranged screaming fit. I recall an early youtuber who went that way and was like Trump in so many ways. Trumps advanced age and being in cognitive decline, self control will go out the window eventually and the unmasking begins. Having all eyes on you is also it's own type of stress and narcissists like Trump can't deal with being seen in a negative light for too long. The fact that he's getting pushback from republicans and his own supporters now and that cracks are starting to show will create a panic in him. I mean some idiots will support him no matter what and even if they can acknowledge his worsening mental state they'll blame it on democrats for "Witch hunting" him... but not all of them will do that. His supporters aren't a monolith either and support him for different reasons. Us viewing them all as the same is a mistake and if you look back over the last decade until 2016 you'll notice that he chips away at his own supporters with increasing levels of alienation and blocks do fall away as time goes on. Right now he's losing support amongst woman, not just because Harris is a woman but because of how Trump speaks about her.

Donald Trump infuriates his supporters. The above is a link to a DailyMail story detailing how Trump supporters view Trumps attempts to grow his base. Trump has really boxed himself in it seems as he has radicalised his base so much, that if he attempts to engage in any form of moderate/independent attracting speech, he will alienate his own supporters, some of whom are claiming "I just won't vote" unless Trump backs policies that contribute toward a net negative immigration outcome. On another note; Trump is apparently obsessively rewatching the footage from the attempt on his life and some are of the opinion he's developing PTSD. Honestly I kind of feel like he may be about to have a nervous breakdown, a very public one! One that will be very hard for anyone to claim it is anything but unhinged.

It's not beyond a possibility at least and the optics of that would look better than throwing him in jail, in the sense that it can done in the name of caring for Trumps well-being. His base by itself isn't enough to win the electoral college and he's done everything he can do discourage his voters from even bothering to show up at the ballot box. Why vote if you think it's rigged? Unfortunately he hasn't grown his base at all while Harris is enjoying bipartisan support from Republicans and evangelicals who see a vote to protect the country from a potential dictator, as patriotic. Another aspect to this election though, and one that could upend my prediction, is actually if Kennedy drops out of the race. At first he seemed to pull a few supporters from both dems and republicans but now it's clear he has been pulling more voters from Trump than Biden or Harris. When running hypothetical matchups, Harris polls better than Trump with Kennedy in the race. Kennedy also seems crazy enough not to drop out even though he has no hope of winning. A ceasefire in Gaza I think would increase support for Harris. I don't know how much by, but it could. There is also a camp of independent and Republican voters (a very small camp) who won't be voting for either the Democrat or Republican candidate and intend to do a write in vote for their local senators and congressional reps. On a personal note; I convinced a Trump supporter yesterday that one thing they have been told is a complete lie. I'm a greencard holding immigrant and as such it is a fact that I cannot vote for nor contribute to any candidate for federal offices. When they suggested that maybe I just don't know I'm allowed to vote, I shut that down by saying straight that I want to vote in this election so bad that if any new law showed up giving me that right, I'd absolutely know about it. Maybe in some local municipalities somewhere in the states I have a right to vote as a lawful permanent resident but definitely not at the federal level. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to give greencard holders the right to vote in federal elections would require an act of congress. Is that correct? Fat chance of that happening when Republicans control the house.

So you think Trump will win based only on the views of Trump supporters? As it stands; pollsters and betters believe Harris is going to win the electoral college and the popular vote; while the race is still competitive, the race has completely changed as Harris is polling very well among women and independent white working class voters. Not just in terms of support but the percentages of people who say they are excited to vote for her are way up. Her campaign is re-engaging people who weren't happy with either choosing Trump or Biden. Trump is also shooting himself in the foot by not only ignoring policy in favour of personal attack strategies that most are just bored with, but by suggesting he will stop infrastructure works in swing states, effectively destroying a large amount of construction jobs on roads and bridges. Also everything Trump said of Bidens age is now coming to bite Trump in the ass as now he's the old hasbeen fart in the race. Not to mention that they have been throwing those kind of insults at Biden, since 2020 when he was 78/79, the same age Trump is now. Look, Trump still has a very loyal base, but that's all and his current strategy seems to be to pander to that base instead of trying to win independents and moderates. He's completely setting the stage for another big election lie if/when he loses. Lastly, we are less than 5 weeks away from Trump being sentenced, and with his remarks about fleeing to Venezuela if he loses the election (Keep in mind Trump is out on bail right now) then his multiple prosecutors may very well decide to ask the courts to hold trump until sentencing in one case or trials in other cases and considering he has means and has now shared publicly a desire to flee, it isn't too much of a stretch to see his bail being revoked. The guy is a flight risk, plain and simple. Obviously he wouldn't flee to Venezuela, but Saudi Arabia or Russia maybe. Now I've hated trump the whole time he's been in politics but even I can say that he was smarter in 2016 when he won and he is in serious decline. Big box of tictacs + little box of tictacs = inflation... that's his arguments now, that's what people get when he does talk about economics. No policy ideas, no plan on how to reduce the cost of living for the working and middle-class. Just "Dont vote for a woman with a crazy laugh who was always Indian then suddely became black". My concern isn't that Trump will win the electoral college as I don't think he is going to; my concern is whether his margin of loss will be small enough for the supreme court to interfere with the election and essentially crown him by themselves with some legal fuckery.

Yeah it's when you realise there is no no way to escape checkmate and you've lost already, now you have to pick between forfeit or letting your opponent play out their moves for a satisfying win.

Depends on the policy, but no, not on their own. In this case; if the impact of a policy leads to voters in swing states, gaining or having friends or family gain new jobs, that wouldn't be available without those policies, that ripples. Policies definitely can contribute towards an election win though, not on their own but then I'm not making my claim that Harris will win, based solely on policy. My claim is made in relation to a variety of factors. This might even be an election where the VP pick has far more impact than it has in previous elections. I'd never really heard much about Walz for example but that in itself is an advantage as anyone more known would have been lambasted for awhile by Republicans talking hypotheticals, like Buttiegieg for example. I guess you'd call it a kind of insult based attrition where the longer Trump and his brood cult have to focus on you, the harder it is to overcome the damage to your image whether what is said about you is true or not. I don't know why but when I look at everything together, my mind just screams "Harris will win barring any major changes to the political landscape." If Trump drops out or is assassinated, thats one. Kennedy dropping out or those ballet exclusions making it through the courts could also skew it as he's likely to take more votes from Trump than Harris. Obviously I'm completely wrong if Harris is assassinated. If compelling evidence came to light of her committing a crime of moral turpitude that could also derail her campaign. 3 months is a long time in politics sure, but not a lot of time to work on constructing a factory in the new American battery belt or to work in solar panel manufacturing or to build roads and bridges. Those folk will be working those jobs for much longer than 3 months and it's only looking like more jobs will need to be created in those sectors in the future and there will be claimable subsidies and tax credits from the inflation reduction act for the next decade. These are some of the areas voters are most concerned about. Inflation is now at 2.9%, first it's been below 3% since 2021 and the federal reserve is already having discussions on when to cut interest rates. People care very much about the abortion issue still also. I'd say more on that but it's late, I'm tired and I've got peaches to pick tomorrow early before they fall!