3 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

So...apparently this is all smoke and mirrors. Those sites were empty and Iran knew the strikes were coming.

What are Ritter's sources on that? His rant just makes that assertion - do you have other intelligence to back that up? He's a nonfiction author, so I would think he's used to providing footnotes. And where else would the Iranians have that could provide such a deep subterranean location or be somehow invisible to all remote sensing?

I'm not disagreeing with Ritter about 47's penchant for theater and shallow displays of "winning.". I just need to see his beef.

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

I'm not disagreeing with Ritter

Well, I would believe Mr Ritter before I would believe virtually any of the other commentators I have heard pontificating on the matter and having been a UN inspector, probably has as good information as any of them He was spot on about WMD's in Iraq...

The answer from Iran appears to suggest that they are trying a measured response, including giving the US advance warning to avoid casualties. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news?unlocked_article_code=1.RE8.16PA.rj_1k8FVEABM&smid=url-share

It is a bit strange, but for now they seem to be rational actors. Which is a strange reversal of perception, all things considered. But apparently that is the new normal now.

8 minutes ago, CharonY said:

The answer from Iran appears to suggest that they are trying a measured response, including giving the US advance warning to avoid casualties. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news?unlocked_article_code=1.RE8.16PA.rj_1k8FVEABM&smid=url-share

It is a bit strange, but for now they seem to be rational actors. Which is a strange reversal of perception, all things considered. But apparently that is the new normal now.

They have always been rational actors, as far as I can see. It seems to me all this "existential threat" stuff is just part of the relentless diet of Islamophobia fed to the US public by the Israel Lobby (of which this "Middle East Forum", referred to in the OP, is a part.).

1 hour ago, exchemist said:

They have always been rational actors, as far as I can see. It seems to me all this "existential threat" stuff is just part of the relentless diet of Islamophobia fed to the US public by the Israel Lobby (of which this "Middle East Forum", referred to in the OP, is a part.).

That is a fair assessment. Though historically, the US was also a rational actor, but the balance has shifted.

I believe Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

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7 minutes ago, Sohan Lalwani said:

I believe Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

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You believe Trump? What do Israel and Iran say?

6 hours ago, CharonY said:

The answer from Iran appears to suggest that they are trying a measured response

Perhaps, but also they’re weaker as a result of recent actions.

https://mailchi.mp/thecipherbrief/the-cipher-brief-nightcap-for-monday-june-23-2025

Experts say this likely reflects Iran’s diminished capabilities. Before the Iranian missile barrage earlier today, former CIA Director General David Petraeus told The Cipher Brief that Iran’s “means of response is dramatically reduced”: Tehran’s proxies are out or on the ropes — Hezbollah has been “decapitated and decimated,” Hamas is already degraded, and the Assad regime in Syria is gone. General Petraeus also noted that Iran’s missile forces have likewise been weakened due to surgical Israeli attacks.

4 minutes ago, iNow said:

Perhaps, but also they’re weaker as a result of recent actions.

That is true, but does one does not necessarily follow from the other. Irrational actors could try to further escalate the situation regardless of the chances of success or a better negotiation positions.

Also apparently Trump's declaration of a cease fire has surprised his own officials and there is no official word from it from Israel or Iran.

Edit: Apparently Iran announced ceasefire too, now.

President Trump abruptly announced a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Iran after speaking to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Iranian officials, with Qatar helping to mediate, a senior White House official said Monday.

The official, who was granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the negotiations publicly, said Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the emir of Qatar, played a role in the cease-fire discussions.

The announcement, made minutes after 6 p.m. Eastern time, caught even some of Mr. Trump’s own top administration officials by surprise. Israel has not yet confirmed the cease-fire, and within three hours of Mr. Trump’s announcement, there were fresh attacks from Israel against Iran, raising questions about whether all parties had agreed to it.

Mr. Trump had help in pressing for a cease-fire from Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy, who had been leading the efforts over the last two months for a deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, the official said.

Iran has attacked a US base in Qatar, it looks like they were prepared and warned.

Minimal damage as the missiles were taken out by air defence systems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdjxdgjpd48o

7 hours ago, swansont said:

You believe Trump? What do Israel and Iran say?

There have been multiple news reports on this so yes, I do.

59 minutes ago, CharonY said:

The answer from Iran appears to suggest that they are trying a measured response, including giving the US advance warning to avoid casualties. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news?unlocked_article_code=1.RE8.16PA.rj_1k8FVEABM&smid=url-share

It is a bit strange, but for now they seem to be rational actors. Which is a strange reversal of perception, all things considered. But apparently that is the new normal now.

1 hour ago, Sohan Lalwani said:

There have been multiple news reports on this so yes, I do.

I see the ceasefire is already broken with Israel re-engaging.

Trump is looking more and more inconsequential by the day. All talk and no walk.

Same thing with Ukraine - he couldn't negotiate peace there and so walked away.

9 hours ago, Sohan Lalwani said:

I believe Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

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Well that 'ceasefire' lasted all of two hours - assuming it ever really existed at all - other than as a figment of president Trump's diseased imagination.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt

21 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

I see the ceasefire is already broken with Israel re-engaging.

Trump is looking more and more inconsequential by the day. All talk and no walk.

Same thing with Ukraine - he couldn't negotiate peace there and so walked away.

As the Financial Times observed in a piece by their Washington correspondent, Trump is, for all his macho bluster, in fact just following Netanyahu's game plan. It was Netanyahu who blew up Trump's Iran diplomacy and Netanyahu who talked him into a strike with the bunker buster bombs. Netanyahu is in the driving seat here.

2 hours ago, exchemist said:

As the Financial Times observed in a piece by their Washington correspondent, Trump is, for all his macho bluster, in fact just following Netanyahu's game plan. It was Netanyahu who blew up Trump's Iran diplomacy and Netanyahu who talked him into a strike with the bunker buster bombs. Netanyahu is in the driving seat here.

I wonder what might happen when Trump, slowly, comes to understand; another Musk moment?

5 hours ago, Sohan Lalwani said:

There have been multiple news reports on this so yes, I do.

Multiple reports of what? That Trump said it? That’s not the issue. That an Iranian official denied it was in the same story at CNN

That the media still credulously repeats everything that Trump says has to be viewed as massive failure of modern “journalism”

5 hours ago, pinball1970 said:

Iran has attacked a US base in Qatar, it looks like they were prepared and warned.

Minimal damage as the missiles were taken out by air defence systems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdjxdgjpd48o

They were warned by Iran. Iran gets to say they retaliated, US avoids serious damage. That particular show of bravado can end. Until Netanyahu manipulates Trump into more engagement, or Trump needs another dustraction from his disastrous domestic policies.

54 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

I wonder what might happen when Trump, slowly, comes to understand; another Musk moment?

Right now DT is having a hissy fit and using the  F-word in front of reporters because his chances of receiving a long-cherished  Nobel Peace Prize are vanishing out of the window faster than a wet dream, with each new exchange of missiles.

https://thehill.com/homenews/5364177-pakistan-nominates-trump-for-nobel-peace-prize-then-condemns-strikes-on-iran/

Last Saturday Islamabad formally announced that it was nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize for his supposed role in defusing the recent confrontation between Pakistan and India - only to do a complete volte-face the next day on on Sunday when Trump sent US bombers in to bomb Iran’s nuclear bunkers.

“Pakistan condemns the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities which follow the series of attacks by Israel. We are gravely concerned at the possible further escalation of tensions in the region,” the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“The unprecedented escalation of tension and violence, owing to ongoing aggression against Iran is deeply disturbing. Any further escalation of tensions will have severely damaging implications for the region and beyond.”

Not the best look for a wannabe Nobel Laureate.

22 minutes ago, toucana said:

Right now DT is having a hissy fit and using the  F-word in front of reporters because his chances of receiving a long-cherished  Nobel Peace Prize are vanishing out of the window faster than a wet dream, with each new exchange of missiles

Because Obama got one. If some organization named Obama the best president of the last quarter-century, the Trump meltdown would be epic

Looks like the war games will include Hide and Seek with the centrifuges and partially enriched uranium.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/24/jd-vance-trump-iran-nuclear-program

But Vance insisted it was not a concern that Iran could have moved it and claimed the bombing represented “mission success” because he said Iran no longer had the capacity to turn the stockpile into weapons-grade uranium. “And that was really the goal here,” he said.

The former UN nuclear weapons inspector David Albright told CNN on Monday there are centrifuges that are “unaccounted for” that must still be dealt with to consider the US mission successful.

“I think that part of the mission has been accomplished,” he said. “Stocks of enriched uranium are one of them. I wish those stocks were buried, but our understanding is that some of them were taken away by Iran, and we don’t know where they are.”

Albright added that the question of the remaining, unaccounted-for centrifuges meant that “this problem isn’t over yet, but it is a manageable problem. Partly because turning that enriched uranium into weapons-grade uranium is not going to be a fast process”.

3 hours ago, swansont said:

Multiple reports of what? That Trump said it? That’s not the issue. That an Iranian official denied it was in the same story at CNN

I believe AP and NYT reported on the topic saying a ceasefire has been declared

7 hours ago, toucana said:

Well that 'ceasefire' lasted all of two hours - assuming it ever really existed at all - other than as a figment of president Trump's diseased imagination.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt

To my knowledge it does exist my friend, multiple major news outlets have reported it

7 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

I see the ceasefire is already broken with Israel re-engaging.

I was just about to celebrate the ceasefire dammit

25 minutes ago, Sohan Lalwani said:

I believe AP and NYT reported on the topic saying a ceasefire has been declared

Declared by whom, though? If they were reporting based on Trump’s announcement then it’s the same flawed source, and same failure.

New Republic writer Greg Sargent (another refugee from WaPo) talks with veteran national security expert Bradley Moss about the 47 admin Iran scam.

https://newrepublic.com/article/197284/transcript-maga-dope-pete-hegseth-tantrum-exposes-trump-iran-scam

President Donald Trump and his top advisers have worked themselves up into a pathological fury about the leaked intelligence assessment that casts doubt on the success of Trump’s bombing of Iran, a story that has consumed Washington. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ranted wildly about it during a press conference with Trump at the NATO summit, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt went full North Korea in praise of Trump with one of her most absurdly obsequious performances yet. Both of them went full throttle in attacking intelligence officials for leaking the assessment. All of which raises a question: Will this administration ever officially tell the truth about the Iran mission, given that everything always must serve the cult of Trump above all else? Today we’re trying to unravel all this with someone who lives deep in the bowels of the deep state and can explain it really well: veteran national security lawyer Bradley Moss....

Wouldn't it be sweet if it turns out that P Hegseth or T Gabbard had leaked the intelligence files through one of their many Signals chats on private phones.

The US is being run by morons, and people with no balls are allowing them to.

According to a recent article in the New York Times, US military planners felt that President Trump himself posed one of the biggest opsec threats to any successful outcome of a military attack on Iran’s nuclear bunker facilities because of his incessant rant-posting on social media ahead of the decision to send in the bombers on Saturday night.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/trump-iran-decision-strikes.html

Trump’s vacillating bluster about whether he might or might not green-light such an attack, coupled with his histrionic demands on Truth Social on Monday 16 June that Iranians should “immediately evacuate Tehran”  (a capital city with a population of almost 10 million people) all gave the Iranian leadership plenty of warning, and enough time to disperse their holdings of highly enriched uranium to other locations.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/17/trump-asks-tehran-residents-to-evacuate-immediately-but-can-they

A well-sourced article in the Financial Times claims that Iran possesses a total stockpile of around 8,400Kg of enriched uranium, most of which is only enriched to low levels consistent with a civilian power program, with about 408Kg or 5% of that stockpile  processed to a more highly enriched level.

https://www.ft.com/content/0808eeb8-341c-4a4e-8ccf-0db07febef91

Fordow was the main site for enriching uranium up to 60 per cent purity, a small step away from weapons grade. Experts said the 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent had been stored at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan before Israel launched its war against Iran on June 13.

Rafael Grossi the director-general of the International Atomic Energy  Agency, has said that the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi sent a letter to the IAEA on June 13 warning that Iran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials”. The UN nuclear wtachdog’s inspectors have been unable to visit the plants since then.

On Thursday Rafael Grossi told French Radio that Iran’s nuclear program had “suffered enormous damage”, though he also said that claims of its complete destruction were “overblown”.

Article in today’s FT says sentiment on the street in Iran is one of national solidarity against outside aggression (they have 627 dead thanks to Israel’s attacks), not one of rising up against the regime. They are particularly incensed by outside aggressors telling them what to do about their own politics, apparently.

Well, well, what a surprise, eh, who could have predicted that? - apart from just about anyone with an ounce of feeling for history.

So this operation has probably set back the cause of the moderates and modernisers.