Overpopulation in 2023

[MSC]

1 hour ago, CharonY said:

You can apply the same argument to multiple level. E.g. within a given population, you could identify those who use a disproportionate amount of resources (e.g. private jets).  But you could also look worldwide and look at populations that have a higher per capita consumption. I.e. the main point is that consumption is not equally distributed and folks who worry about overpopulation usually conveniently focus on measures that excludes themselves form being part of the problem, if that makes sense. 

Yeah, that makes sense. Although I do feel that on an individual level as a citizen of a high consuming nation, the scale of the overconsumption problem (because as you've made clear, a 10billion transitional phase followed by a organic population reduction, isn't much of a problem) is daunting and the expectation of purchaser power being a deciding factor, is at odds with what we know about consumer behaviour and human nature. Corporate policy structures are much more maleable and quicker to change than human nature is. I think there are plenty of people who are aware they are part of the problem that wish to be part of the solution and some who are actively being part of the solution while stuck being part of the problem, at a small scale. 

I fall into the daunted category and unsure of what I can do to convince people to not only consume less, but to switch to more ethical sources for what they do consume when large corporations have cornered the affordability market so that most who live paycheck to paycheck, have nowhere else to go but to the companies that not only consume the most, enable individual overconsumption on a massive scale. 

Apologies if I'm getting off topic and overconsumption needs it's own thread, I guess I just agree with you that overpopulation isn't really problem provided there are no large shifting changes in fertility rates or lifespans. 

[MigL]

2 hours ago, CharonY said:

Simple extrapolation suggests therefore that assuming 10 billion will be present around 2085, around 50-60 this will drop back to 8 billion (ca. 2022 levels). And about a hundred years later it may level out around 2 billion.

Those same projections also show that the average age would be about 85, and for the system to sustain itself, retirement age would need to be about 95.
( I pulled those age numbers out of my rear; but I assume you know what I mean )

Medicine, biology and genetics had better start working on keeping us healthy, capable and cognizant well past that age.

[CharonY]

1 hour ago, MigL said:

Those same projections also show that the average age would be about 85, and for the system to sustain itself, retirement age would need to be about 95.
( I pulled those age numbers out of my rear; but I assume you know what I mean )

Actually I am not quite certain what you mean. The issues of extrapolation? Or the issues of aging populations with lower birth rates? 

[MigL]

Sorry if I didn't explain myself well enough; lower birth rates leading to aging population problem.

Currently countered by immigration from high birth rate countries to low birth rate countries. But what happens when most all countries go to a low birth rate as in the extrapolation ?
If there are less young working people to pay taxes, there is less money available for the greater number of the elderly pensions.
The system becomes unsustainable unless people work, and are able to work, to a much older age.

[dimreepr]

44 minutes ago, MigL said:

Sorry if I didn't explain myself well enough; lower birth rates leading to aging population problem.

Currently countered by immigration from high birth rate countries to low birth rate countries. But what happens when most all countries go to a low birth rate as in the extrapolation ?
If there are less young working people to pay taxes, there is less money available for the greater number of the elderly pensions.
The system becomes unsustainable unless people work, and are able to work, to a much older age.

The system becomes unsustainable, when the amount of work done isn't enough to feed us...  

Age has little to do with it...

[CharonY]

2 hours ago, MigL said:

Currently countered by immigration from high birth rate countries to low birth rate countries. But what happens when most all countries go to a low birth rate as in the extrapolation ?

Due to shifts in life expectancy are indeed getting older and it is inevitable that the median age will go up from the current ca. 30 yrs. A declining birth rate will further the trend. However, the median age increase will also decline, as with slowing birth rates previous (older) generations will not outnumber the next generation at some point. Assuming that there is a steady state, there will be an equilibrium of age distributions, too. I think projections put the median age around 40ish by 2100, so perhaps somewhere between 40 and 50 might be realistic?

[AIkonoklazt]

On 2/11/2024 at 7:26 AM, MigL said:

It's simple enough.
If you stop searching for drivel,  the app's algorithm will stop feeding you drivel.

The keyword isn't "Elon" or "Musk" but "technology"

[Endy0816]

7 hours ago, MigL said:

Sorry if I didn't explain myself well enough; lower birth rates leading to aging population problem.

Currently countered by immigration from high birth rate countries to low birth rate countries. But what happens when most all countries go to a low birth rate as in the extrapolation ?
If there are less young working people to pay taxes, there is less money available for the greater number of the elderly pensions.
The system becomes unsustainable unless people work, and are able to work, to a much older age.

We'll probably switch over to widespread automation and/or artificial means to maintain population levels.