Ten oz

U.S. Democratic Primary

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

But that's my point, it cant be a starting point, because it's the end point

No. It is the current reality from which to move forward.

AKA...good starting point...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/11/2019 at 4:33 AM, J.C.MacSwell said:

How do you take advantage of that knowledge?

If I pick a position at the median for each (which could be the same position depending on how the graphs correlate)

Where do you go to do better?

The premise is that the Democrat positions, well to the left of centre, have less scatter...so by picking there you have more "happy" voters...

So do you pick there?

If so, by trying to maximize "happy voters", you have positioned yourself much more objectionably for most.

This is something strategies have to work out, but of course the structural elements also play a role. E.g. while the base has always been clearly voting based on party affiliation, key is mobilizing. But there are the primaries, which are a weird US thing, which generally mean that during that time candidates traditionally shift more to the left/right in order to win it, as registered Reps/Dems, especially those showing up to those primaries  want to be pandered to. Afterward, the candidates generally pivot to the middle, or quite frequently, somewhere around centre right, IIRC. 

Now if we ignore primaries and look at the graphs there are a couple of interesting points. If only looking at the total electorate (ignoring party affiliation and ignoring who is more likely to show up to vote) it would make a lot sense for Dems to go very far left on economics and slightly less so on pro-immigration policies. For Reps it would make sense to heavily go for anti-immigration but be less so on the economical axis. The risk of straddling the middle is losing the bulk on either the further right/left (which, may just decide not to show up to vote).

There is also more information in the article that one could look at. for example, what is the profile of undecided voters? Those appear to be fairly liberal on immigration, but conservative on economics. That is slightly surprising, considering how polarizing immigration seems to be, but that also seem to coincide with voters who tend to have higher degrees and higher incomes. 

But what is missing from the article is weighing the axes. For example, it is not clear (unless I missed it) whether the two parameters are equally predictive of voting behaviour or whether one or the other is considered more important. For example, it is possible that for those highly conservative in immigration, it may be the pivotal issue (as they e.g. see a cultural threat from immigration), whereas those liberal might see it as important, but perhaps not as important as a tax cut.

The most important point, however, is that the article does show that the commonly used talking point about the appealing to the middle may not be a no-brainer after all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CharonY said:

 

Now if we ignore primaries and look at the graphs there are a couple of interesting points. If only looking at the total electorate (ignoring party affiliation and ignoring who is more likely to show up to vote) it would make a lot sense for Dems to go very far left on economics and slightly less so on pro-immigration policies. For Reps it would make sense to heavily go for anti-immigration but be less so on the economical axis. The risk of straddling the middle is losing the bulk on either the further right/left (which, may just decide not to show up to vote).

 

 

Good post. Just wondering about your thinking on this part. It seems to contradict (or tend to go against) what you are saying in the rest. (not with regard to positioning economics left of immigration but the far left part)

 

Other news:

Looks like Elon Musk is onboard...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/elon-musk-tweets-support-of-democrat-presidential-hopeful-andrew-yang.html

One question:

He describes himself as a registered independent...what the heck is that?

Edited by J.C.MacSwell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

One question:

He describes himself as a registered independent...what the heck is that?

A fence sitter who acts holier-than-thou and often pretends to “rise above” partisanship, when in reality they tend to vote consistently for one party over the other in election after election after election.  

IMO, it generally provides an easy “out” in social situations since they aren’t required to have any courage to actually defend their convictions.

Worse still, it simply removes their ability to participate in primaries and dilutes the power of their voice. 

I’ve said some controversial things there. Probably best to split into a new thread if exploration is desired. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, iNow said:

A fence sitter who acts holier-than-thou and often pretends to “rise above” partisanship, when in reality they tend to vote consistently for one party over the other in election after election after election.  

IMO, it generally provides an easy “out” in social situations since they aren’t required to have any courage to actually defend their convictions.

Worse still, it simply removes their ability to participate in primaries and dilutes the power of their voice. 

I’ve said some controversial things there. Probably best to split into a new thread if exploration is desired. 

I don't think that's necessary. Is it fair to assume Musk just made that up and that there is no such registry? Or is there such a thing?

I tried google but nothing clear one way or the other...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, one can register as independent 

It basically means that person simply cannot participate in either party’s primary. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, iNow said:

Yes, one can register as independent 

It basically means that person simply cannot participate in either party’s primary. 

Pedantic point: some parties have open primaries. I have voted in both democrat and republican primaries despite only ever having registered as an independent. I have also been prevented from voting in certain primaries, as they were restricted to registered party members. Where I now live you don't register with a party and can vote in either primary, but not both.

Not being affiliated with a party might reduce the amount of political literature you get in the mail (or possibly phone calls) by a small amount.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, iNow said:

Yes, one can register as independent 

It basically means that person simply cannot participate in either party’s primary. 

Colorado recently passed a law allowing primary voting by independents. We still have a problem with some folks turning in both ballots, but we're working on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, swansont said:

Pedantic point: some parties have open primaries.

And a welcome point, it was. Thanks for adding clarity

15 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

We still have a problem with some folks turning in both ballots, but we're working on it.

My immediate thought was to turn in one ballot for the person I like most and another ballot for the weakest possible opposition I'd like them to go up against in the general election. Maximizing the R.O. my voting I. (ROI), as it were.

Edited by iNow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Good post. Just wondering about your thinking on this part. It seems to contradict (or tend to go against) what you are saying in the rest. (not with regard to positioning economics left of immigration but the far left part)

Not really, I want to remind you that we are still in the primary, which, as I mentioned, requires a generally more progressive (or conservative) agenda than during the actual election. And as I mentioned, the data seems to indicate that the bigger share of potential voters for the Dems are on the rather far left part of the scale. As indicated in the report, the lower left part of the graph (i.e. far left  and left on both, immigration and econonimcs) captures 32% of all voters and 60% of Dems. Moreover, the authors mentioned that in the lower left cell, (i.e. the most progressive on both dimensions) the highest proportion of higher educated Dems are found, who generally are more politically engaged. Which is going to a point I tried to make, which is that even among those groups there are sub-targets that need to be mobilized, potentially with different means.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, CharonY said:

Not really, I want to remind you that we are still in the primary, which, as I mentioned, requires a generally more progressive (or conservative) agenda than during the actual election. And as I mentioned, the data seems to indicate that the bigger share of potential voters for the Dems are on the rather far left part of the scale. As indicated in the report, the lower left part of the graph (i.e. far left  and left on both, immigration and econonimcs) captures 32% of all voters and 60% of Dems. Moreover, the authors mentioned that in the lower left cell, (i.e. the most progressive on both dimensions) the highest proportion of higher educated Dems are found, who generally are more politically engaged. Which is going to a point I tried to make, which is that even among those groups there are sub-targets that need to be mobilized, potentially with different means.

 

That makes more sense. I suspected that was what you really meant to say...

Good post with that cleared up. I would tend to agree. It is just a shame if pushed so far left...lots of ammunition for Trump as I am sure he will try to hold them to it (which is fair if he does)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

It is just a shame if pushed so far left...lots of ammunition for Trump as I am sure he will try to hold them to it (which is fair if he does

I’ll defer to Mayor Pete on this point, as I feel he sums up the core issue nicely (video at the link):

https://www.newsweek.com/gop-senator-prove-buttigieg-republicans-label-democrats-socialists-1451987

Quote

supporting the government-run health care insurance system would only provide Republicans with ammunition to attack the Democratic Party as a bunch of socialists.

"It is time to stop worrying about what the Republicans will say. If we embrace a far-left agenda, they're going to say we're a bunch of crazy socialists. If we embrace a conservative agenda, you know what they're going to do? They're going to say we're a bunch of crazy socialists," Buttigieg said, earning applause from those in attendance.

"So," he continued, "let's just stand up for the right policy, go out there and defend it."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Former Colorado Governor, John Hickenlooper, has chosen to drop-out of the race. One down, seven hundred and ninety-three (that feels  aboutright, doesn't it?) to go!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, iNow said:

Former Colorado Governor, John Hickenlooper, has chosen to drop-out of the race. One down, seven hundred and ninety-three (that feels  aboutright, doesn't it?) to go!

A senate run is in the cards for a few candidates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now