iNow

We clearly dated in different leagues 🤠 😎

I feel I’d be repeating myself if I respond here to those points

I read another today about a guy in Pennsylvania who tried voting 3x for Trump. Once in his own name, then also once each in the name of his dead mother and dead mother-in-law Exactly

I’m disappointed. The thread title suggested this discussion would be far more risqué

Again though, the polls have been largely accurate. The narrative that they’re not isn’t very well supported (I posted about this above). They give likely tendencies, not definitive predictions.

Then he should share it with the courts, because he’s lost or had dismissed all of the 60-odd legal challenges he and his team have made

As a general rule, democratic voters tend to be more focused on community and social issues whereas republican voters tend to be more focused on the self and personal liberty issues. This psychologically extends to a basic willingness to offer their unpaid time helping with a survey (volunteering to help) versus being untrustworthy of the pollster (more isolated and protectionist in thinking style).

In the end, it doesn't really matter what he believes, but due to the way he phrases his comments like he's "just asking questions" suggests he knows very well he's lying. It's intentional. It's virtue signaling to his supporters. It's an attempt to delegitimize Biden (like the birther issue was used to delegitimize Obama). It's laying the groundwork for a possible 2nd Trump term in 2024. It's setting him up as the leader of the party speaking out and setting the narrative... or to be the leader of the new "Trump-party" which might split from the Republican party in upcoming years... Trump republicans versus the rest of the republicans. It's also about rejecting the Georgia Senate race... if the Democrats win, they'll simply say that was rigged/fraudulent too and push every lever they can to prevent the winning Senators from being seated. After all... if there was fraud in Georgia during the presidential election, it only stands to reason there was fraud in the senate runoff... Repeat it enough times and people will believe it. In the end, it doesn't really matter what Trump believes. What matters is the above outcomes of his actions, but yes. I do think he knows full well he's lying. It's sort of been par for the course for him his entire life, similar to the "reality distortion field" so often attributed to Steve Jobs... If only you pretend hard enough and refuse to let thoughts of failure into your mind then it will come true... that is the basic essence of it.

I think the narrative of a shy Trump voter explaining misses in polls is itself misguided, even though it's become so commonly shared. Instead, getting people to answer their phones in the first place is the bigger deal. Those who do answer their phones are decreasingly likely to be representative of those who don't. This is not party-specific nor in any way isolated to Trump. It's still within the margin of error, and given what we've seen at the presidential level, it won't surprise me at all if we don't have to wait a few more weeks watching false astroturfed claims of fraud getting made and empty court cases get filed before we can say who won.

I won’t be wasting any more time with you

Hmm. I was using sarcasm. Maybe that’s the source of the misunderstanding. You said: “I suspect many, even in an anonymous poll, would be unwilling to admit they could vote for Trump.” The meaning of my reply: “That doesn’t seem to align with the behaviors we actually tend to see from Trump voters. This doesn’t seem to be a valid explanation for polling misses.”

Since you’re using currency in specific denominations to post your question, then no. There’s no such thing as a “smaller penny.” You can’t cut a penny in half and hand it to,the clerk at the register when leaving the store, even though we can account for fractional pennies in spreadsheets

Thanks for confirming that you have no idea how sampling works with this vague inoperative reply which itself ignores how many of the things you suggest are already being done. You seem to be suggesting that one must physically attend a rally or else qualify for you’re “too shy to anonymously tell a pollster they’re voting for Trump” population. I’m sure we both agree that’s silly. I’m sure some fraction of people polled chose to hide their support for Trump when asked. Nobody disputes that. However, you’re suggesting that enough people did this in the last 2 elections to totally skew the results of polls across the board conducted by different organizations. To me, that’s self-evidently absurd and I’ve already offered a more parsimonious explanation for the failure in polls above. The people who lie are marginal at best, and their responses tend to average out as noise that has minimal to no impact on the sample. Also, IMO the narrative that polls are “way off base“ is itself questionable. The polls are actually quite good overall. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/ Finally, even if I choose to accept your premise that polls are bad, the explanation of this being due to shy Trump voters who are lying when polled simply doesn’t add up. The problem has more to do with people not answering polls at all than it does with people agreeing to answer them, but lying to the pollster when they do. This gets amplified by the difficulty in reaching a random sample in the first place due to the huge move away from landline phones and the deeper challenge of associating portable mobile phone numbers (think: area codes) with specific regions and locations. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor

“The ozone hole occurs during the Antarctic spring, from September to early December, as strong westerly winds start to circulate around the continent and create an atmospheric container. Within this polar vortex, over 50 percent of the lower stratospheric ozone is destroyed during the Antarctic spring.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion Indeed, you have. Sadly, your answer was incorrect and laden with extraneous nonsense.

Yes, definitely in my experience these last several years it’s become clear that most Trump supporters are a rather shy bunch of wallflowers who prefer keeping quiet and hiding their feelings about Trump from others 🙄

What is your ballpark estimate for how much that return will be per annum? How does that compare the massive up front expenditure to move all of those people and find them homes and work? I’ll ignore for the moment the absurdly obvious political obstacles of your idea while I wait to watch you dodge this straight forward question.

Unlikely. What do you recommend is a better sampling method?

^This

The more parsimonious explanation involves the move away from landline telephones and the way people don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. When people move from one state to another, they tend to take their phone number with them and those numbers don’t match local area codes. Consequently, they get missed in random samples dialed by pollsters. Sure, some people lie when reached and asked questions, but that’s less common and bleeds out as noise with a sufficiently large sample size. Maybe you should go post this as a YouTube comment somewhere so the entire world may benefit from the correction.

What’s in it for them? US can’t even get improved schools for their own kids or fix bridges that are crumbling, let alone nationalized healthcare. You think despite these challenges the US taxpayers are going to 1) approve spending their tax dollars on this despite the lack of obvious ROI, and 2) stick a giant finger into the eye of China, its largest trading partner?

@CharonY addressed this earlier today in another thread. Summarized: This isn’t an issue of policy. The progressive policies of democrats are supported by majority of population. The right is simply ignoring policy in favor of identity, supporting candidates due to the R beside their name even when a vote for them is against their interests.

Try to remember those farmers being pushed out of the Midwest by giant agri-businesses are my neighbors. I’m not as oblivious to them and their grievance as you suggest. That said, you’re right that they’re being taken advantage of... being offered simplistic solutions like “blame that other guy over there... they’re the reason your life is challenging.” And that’s turning into not just threats of violence, but actual measurable spikes in it. This has been core to Biden’s message since the primaries... that he’ll be the president for everyone, not just those who voted for him. It’s how he’s governed for over 40 years. He’s lived a life that helps him understand their problems. He’s capable enough to help improve their lives through policy and competent staff. Unfortunately, 70-80% of republicans are certain the election was rigged and Biden is not a legitimate president, that violent overthrow of those evil liberals and Democrats is the only patriotic thing to strive toward. I’ve read the words “civil war” and “ammunition” at least 15x today alone, and I haven’t even been online that long.

Also, those on the right seem to want to shoot and maim those on the left like a bunch of traitors who raped their daughters, whereas those on the left want to provide healthcare, better more cost effective education, and stop police from murdering black people. I’m not comfortable with the level of nazi-style dehumanization and vitriol I’m seeing pretty consistently on my own local representatives comments sections.

And also the wing that gives a rats ass about basic decency, honesty, and reality based discussions.