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About VenusPrincess

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  1. We are in the age of incompetence. Our politicians and scientists are incompetent.
  2. Thanks. After doing extensive research I have come to the conclusion that there is no hard evidence that the putative COVID-19 virus exists.
  3. Most scientists today are Asian since white kids aren't smart enough to outcompete them for spots in grad school.
  4. This is just wrong. There are many branches of thermodynamics and there is no strict assumption of equilibrium unless you choose to study a branch that makes that assumption. Also wrong. Convection currents in the atmosphere reach altitudes far beyond the placement of our thermometers, yet they also pass through areas near the surface. You cannot make conclusions about the heat content of an atmosphere with turbulent flow and convection currents by merely averaging measurements at the surface. The global average temperature anomaly is not a robust estimate of the atmosphere's heat content. I didn't respond since your reply was overly wordy, fairly irrelevant and pedantic. What was your point? That some obscure equation that incorporates the average surface temperature could be useful? Well we know Mars and Earth have atmospheres, and we know which gases they are composed of. So I guess we don't need the obscure equation you mentioned. Reading comprehension? My point was about the uselessness of calculating a global average temperature, that it has no thermodynamic validity, and more specifically I mentioned afterwards that local trends may not match the global trend. The point does stand. Not sure what "the graph that clearly shows temperature increasing over the last ~140 years" has to do with my point.
  5. Sorry, I read the text on the graphic that referenced the pre-industrial average and assumed that it pertained to the graphic. The point still stands.
  6. I assumed the global average temperature deviation focused on the latter as well. Your own link shows how useless a global average temperature is from a practical perspective. A graphic on that page shows that the majority of months in North America had for the most part cooler temperatures today than during the pre-industrial average: The question is about the usefulness and predictive power of that statistic. If you can't even define what you are trying to measure then you can't even begin to answer that question. You cannot use temperature measurements to deduce the statistical properties of a thermodynamic process if you cannot establish a valid thermodynamic connection between the measurement and the process. You haven't even gotten as far as clearly defining the process you are trying to measure, much less established a connection between the measurements and the process.
  7. Policy makers rely heavily upon the global average temperature anomaly to make conclusions and decisions. If they did not then your strawman claim might be valid. Monitor the trend in what? The averaged temperatures of a turbulent gas measured over wide spans of time and space which have highly heterogeneous pressure and surface conditions is supposed to be an estimate of what exactly? Within the next 100 years people will look at back at this as junk science. Yes. It tells us nothing about dependence on latitude, time of day, season, local weather events. It's useless. The average surface temperature on Earth is ~15 ºC, but it can range from -80 ºC to 50 ºC depending on time and location. This demonstrates a poor understanding of thermodynamics. We cannot hope to measure tiny deviations in the energy content of an atmosphere by averaging surface temperature measurements over wide spans of time and space which have highly heterogeneous pressure and surface conditions.
  8. Yes. To illustrate how ridiculous it is to summarize in a single number the heat in an entire planet's atmosphere consider if we were engineers designing a rover to land on Mars. There are a million questions we could ask regarding temperature, including: How hot could the rover capsule's heat shield get as it cuts through the atmosphere? What are the 90% (typical) and 99.99% (extreme) confidence intervals for the temperature at the locations where we intend to operate the rover? How do the temperature confidence intervals depend on season? How do they depend on time of day? What weather events can create local disturbances in pressure and temperature? How often do they occur at the locations where we intend to operate the rover? Does their frequency change with season? What is the cloud cover like at the locations where we intend to operate the rover? How does it influence temperature and availability of solar power? Dependence on season and time of day... And I could go on and on and on. If you told me the average temperature on the Martian surface was -60 °C that would be utterly useless for our efforts to engineer a rover to survive on Mars. A useful understanding of the thermodynamics of planet's atmosphere simply cannot be summarized in a single number. It contains very little useful information.
  9. You really are a nihilist. Irrationally so. Why are you so jaded? Faithless electors are not common, so yes your votes do matter. Ignoring problems with not accounting for the covariance between state outcomes, do you think the probability weights are very far off?
  10. I usually throw stuff away immediately but I got lazy that night. I will definitely be more careful, I hate roaches. I figured this as well. The sound was more likely to the the crinkling of the paper bag then the ants munching on the bread, but I wonder. The thought of hundreds of little ant pincers munching loud enough to be audible bothers me! I hope the sound was their little footsteps on the paper bag instead.
  11. The global average temperature deviation (or anomaly) is used by climate scientists to justify their concern over man-made climate change, but if that calculation of the global average temperature has no thermodynamic validity then its use is questionable, just as the calculation of the average temperature of my car has no thermodynamic validity; it is not representative of anything material without more information.
  12. I guess the most objective measurement of "smart" is an aptitude test, but I guess what I'm getting at is how could wisdom be incorporated into an aptitude test so that it can be measured in an objective way?
  13. If I have time I might implement something better, could be interesting to see how it affects the estimate. I didn't neg you. People might be interested in trying their own probability weights which is why I shared.
  14. I think I did it out of habit, it may have been important to exclude sample =1.0 in some other application where I did something similar. But here you are correct, I don't think it's necessary to add the 1.0 On a side note the implementation is flawed in a few ways. From stackoverflow: But I don't think it's worth spending the extra time to fix it. I can't imagine it will have a huge impact on the estimate which is just a fun back of the napkin type calculation anyway.
  15. Not you I guess. You're too smart to care about stuff like this. You're a proper nihilist like all great intellectuals.
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