Three weeks ago (back around May 24) a highly conservative American think-tank called MEF (Middle East Forum) published a report predicting that an attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites would take place within  “a matter of days not weeks”

https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/days-not-weeks-israels-imminent-attack-on-iranian-nuclear-sites

This assessment was based on a convergence of factors including  - reports from the Pentagon’s DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) that Iran could produce sufficient weapons grade uranium for a nuclear device within a week, and for another 15 within a month after that  - a deadlock in the fifth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Rome -  coupled with an extensive war game simulation conducted by MEF during their conference on Thursday 22 May.

The conclusions of this war game study include the following

The operational reality is daunting. Any Israeli strike would require a week-long campaign targeting multiple sites: the Natanz enrichment complex, the deeply buried Fordow facility, Isfahan’s uranium conversion plant, and suspected weaponization sites. Israel has methodically degraded Iran’s deterrent capabilities—Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal reportedly reduced by 80 percent, Syrian proxy networks shattered, Hamas isolated after the Gaza war. As one Israeli security official assessed, “Iran’s regional allies lie in tatters.”

All of this now appears to be playing out in real time, but what is really sobering are some of the other predictions from this simulation.

Our war game simulation at the MEF conference revealed truths now playing out in real-time. When evidence of weaponized enrichment triggered action in our exercise, events spiraled from GPS disruptions and cyber-attacks to nuclear detonation within three compressed rounds

None of this will have come as any surprise to Washington. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff (who is in fact a realtor by profession) left the US-Iran talks in Rome quite abruptly at the e/o May just after the MEF war game simulation ended -  supposedly due to his “flight schedule”; and within the last two days the Trump administration had begun an urgent withdrawal of US staff from a number of locations in the Middle-East.

Israel under prime minister Netanyahu has clearly concluded that launching an all-out attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities along with a decapitation attack on their military leadership was necessary in order to deal with an “existential threat to Israel's existence". The problem is that war games - like all mathematical modelling exercises are only as good as the assumptions built into them at the outset.

Edited June 13Jun 13 by toucana
corrected "" in final para.

This will only increase Iran's resolve to have nukes. Not surprised, Israel is a threat to the region with its expansionist aspirations of a Greater Israel.

Just now, StringJunky said:

This will only increase Iran's resolve to have nukes. Not surprised, Israel is a threat to the region with its expansionist aspirations of a Greater Israel.

Exactly. Everyone around them has got them: Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Israel…..

If I were Iranian I’d want them. And it’s all nonsense that they would pose a threat to Israel. Nukes only have value as defensive armaments, because of the retaliation in the event of first use.

On 6/13/2025 at 5:56 AM, exchemist said:

Exactly. Everyone around them has got them: Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Israel…..

If I were Iranian I’d want them. And it’s all nonsense that they would pose a threat to Israel. Nukes only have value as defensive armaments, because of the retaliation in the event of first use.

Hmm I wonder who supplied weapons to the group Israel is so hell bent on fighting 🤔

On 6/13/2025 at 8:56 AM, exchemist said:

Nukes only have value as defensive armaments, because of the retaliation in the event of first use.

Hrumph-hrumph ...
( Japanese guy in the corner loudly clearing his throat )

I don't like pre-emptive attacks, based on the possibility that an adversary might do something.
But ... Israel has had nuclear weapons for about 40 years, and although constantly under attack, has never used them.
Is any one of you convinced that if Iran had nuclear weapons, the religious fundamentalist zealots that run the country would hesitate to use them ?

One problem for Israel is that the Fordow facility is deeply buried ( 80-90m ), and Israel lacks bunker-busting munitions.
They need to drag the US into the operation to be able to use American munitions, although D Trump is hoping that the Iranians will now reconsider his 'negotiations' ( so he has at least one 'win' after five months of big beautiful Presidency ).
An alternative is to use nukes to penetrate the Fordow facility.
I wouldn't put that past Netanyahu, but his armed forces and people might object ( and it would make my second paragraph a lie )

Just now, MigL said:

Hrumph-hrumph ...
( Japanese guy in the corner loudly clearing his throat )

I don't like pre-emptive attacks, based on the possibility that an adversary might do something.
But ... Israel has had nuclear weapons for about 40 years, and although constantly under attack, has never used them.
Is any one of you convinced that if Iran had nuclear weapons, the religious fundamentalist zealots that run the country would hesitate to use them ?

One problem for Israel is that the Fordow facility is deeply buried ( 80-90m ), and Israel lacks bunker-busting munitions.
They need to drag the US into the operation to be able to use American munitions, although D Trump is hoping that the Iranians will now reconsider his 'negotiations' ( so he has at least one 'win' after five months of big beautiful Presidency ).
An alternative is to use nukes to penetrate the Fordow facility.
I wouldn't put that past Netanyahu, but his armed forces and people might object ( and it would make my second paragraph a lie )

Iran’s leadership is not suicidal. They would not risk annihilation by nuclear first use, any more than any other nuclear nation. I don’t buy all this Israeli hysteria.

2 minutes ago, exchemist said:

Iran’s leadership is not suicidal.

They may not be, but they have no problem convincing their people to be.

9 minutes ago, MigL said:

They may not be, but they have no problem convincing their people to be.

There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

Googles AI has been evolving it's response on "iran democracy 1953" over the past couple of days.

"In 1953, Iran experienced the overthrow of its democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in a coup d'état orchestrated by the CIA and MI6. This event, known as the 1953 Iranian coup d'état, significantly impacted Iran's political landscape and is still a point of contention in Iranian-Western relations."

It previously mentioned the monarchy imposed by the UK/US and stated that it was done to 'protect' their oil interests that had been nationalised by the democratic government.

1 minute ago, LaurieAG said:

Googles AI has been evolving it's response on "iran democracy 1953" over the past couple of days.

"In 1953, Iran experienced the overthrow of its democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in a coup d'état orchestrated by the CIA and MI6. This event, known as the 1953 Iranian coup d'état, significantly impacted Iran's political landscape and is still a point of contention in Iranian-Western relations."

It previously mentioned the monarchy imposed by the UK/US and stated that it was done to 'protect' their oil interests that had been nationalised by the democratic government.

Moderator Note

We’re aware of the unreliability of such sources, which is why we don’t allow them in these discussions

LOL,

PBS News

In first, CIA acknowledges 1953 coup it backed to overthr...

While other American officials have made similar remarks in the past, the acknowledgment by the CIA in a podcast about the agency’s history comes as much of its official history of the coup still r...

https://www.npr.org/2019/01/31/690363402/how-the-cia-overthrew-irans-democracy-in-four-days

President Trump has abruptly left the G7 summit in Calgary citing “Big stuff’ to attend to back in Washington, and denying French president Macron’s suggestion that it was in connection with overseeing Middle-East ceasefire negotiations.

https://apnews.com/article/g7-summit-canada-trump-departure-ukraine-6c86a0a8463603c9b1a3e950382af0a2

A large formation of United States Airforce aerial refuelling aircraft including over two dozen KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-46 Pegasus tankers was spotted travelling eastbound from USA to Europe on Sunday night

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/huge-number-of-u-s-refuelling-aircraft-cross-the-atlantic/

The movement comes at a time of sustained regional instability. The United States has already deployed naval and air defence assets to the region in support of Israel, including AEGIS-equipped destroyers and THAAD anti-missile systems. A large-scale deployment of aerial refuelling aircraft could provide the capability to extend the range and endurance of US strike platforms, or rapidly support the forward movement of fighters, bombers, or ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) aircraft.

Some Israeli news outlets are now claiming that president Trump will shortly join Israel’s attack on Iran with the specific intent of destroying the Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow which is  located in deep underground bunkers  in mountains near Qom - bunkers which Israeli forces lack the specialised munitions to attack.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/trump-iran-israel-conflict-g7

It would appear that president Trump and his advisers are pondering the fateful step of directly helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program - a  move that many leading MAGA figures will be highly critical of because  they see it as a repudiation of their cherished  “America First” principles, and yet another unwanted involvement in a Middle-East war.

This could also inflame a lot of Shiites. Attack so near to Qom, which is considered holy among Shia Muslims, raises the specter of bringing religious outrage and vengeance seeking into the dynamic. Never a good thing in war.

7 hours ago, toucana said:

It would appear that president Trump and his advisers are pondering the fateful step of directly helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program

This was Netanyahu's plan all along.
He purposely sabotaged American negotiations to re-establish the nuclear enrichment control treaty, which D Trump himself had cancelled during his first Presidency, by attacking while negotiations were ongoing.
Trump has no choice now, because he hates being 'played' by anyone other than Putin.

On 6/15/2025 at 4:45 PM, exchemist said:

here is no evidence of that whatsoever.

Really ???
They didn't fund and supply arms to Hamas and Hezbollah since they were first established?
How many of those idiots have died since Oct. 7 ?

They don't pay people to strap bombs around their chest and walk into Israeli nightclubs to 'martyr' themselves ???
How many of those idiots have died, and their families received further payments ?

Do you believe the Israeli embargo allows Hamas to put together an operation like Oct. 7 without Iranian financial and military support ???
I consider you very far from an idiot; don't give me reason to begin changing my mind by making easily contradicted claims.

28 minutes ago, MigL said:

Really ???
They didn't fund and supply arms to Hamas and Hezbollah since they were first established?
How many of those idiots have died since Oct. 7 ?

Wasn't that referring to the use of nuclear weapons? It is a bit of a difference to convince folks to kill and die for a cause, and another one to blow up everyone (including their families). Unless of course I am misinterpreting the exchange.

Going back to the nuclear argument, the question is always how "mad" the dictators really are (Putin is another example). And there is also the consideration of how these conflicts might actually increase nuclear proliferation. Russia's attack and Trump's stance have changed or at least softened anti-nuclear deterrent sentiments in Europe, for example.

For clarification ...
Exchemist said the Iranian religious leadership was not suicidal ( correct me if I'm wrong ).
To which I replied that they may not be, but have no problem convincing others to be suicidal.

Seems to be a discussion about suicidal tendencies.

But I do agree ...
Putin's opposition to NATO defensive expansion and subsequent invasion of Ukraine, have led to a major expansion of NATO.
Trump's unwillingness to use its nuclear deterrent against Russia has led to European nations expanding their own nuclear capabilities, and proliferation.
After the Israeli attacks on Iran, Pakistan has suggested using their nukes against Israel.
( and India will use theirs against Pakistan, China will use theirs against India, and the US will use theirs against China; that's how 'mad' some of these people really are )

5 minutes ago, MigL said:

Seems to be a discussion about suicidal tendencies.

Might be, but I interpreted as suicidal in form of nuclear suicide vs individual action. But again, I concede that I might have interpreted the exchange wrongly.

6 minutes ago, MigL said:

After the Israeli attacks on Iran, Pakistan has suggested using their nukes against Israel.
( and India will use theirs against Pakistan, China will use theirs against India, and the US will use theirs against China; that's how 'mad' some of these people really are )

The question to me is really how much of that is real or just part of saber-rattling. But to be honest, I am not certain of anything in this climate. During the cold war we were only a tick away from nuclear annihilation if not cooler head(s) prevailed (even if just barely).

In the 2000s I would have dismissed it as unthinkable. Nowadays, I wouldn't be surprised if someone would just do whatever chatgpt tells them to (that is, after all what the US administrations seems to do).

The New York Times is reporting that multiple American B2 stealth bombers are being flown westwards from Whiteman AFB Missouri out over the Pacific towards Guam, en route to the Middle-East.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump

The B2 bombers are the only US aircraft large enough to carry the GBU-57 or ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ (MOP), a 20’ long  weapon weighing 30,000 lbs which  is the largest conventional bomb in the world, and the only specialised deep bunker-busting bomb capable of destroying the underground Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow.

The same sources say that Israeli forces are carrying out intensive airstrikes in the Ahvaz region of southwestern Iran to take out missile launchers and air-defence radars along the flight path that would be used by U.S warplanes on their way to attack Fordow.

Edited June 21Jun 21 by toucana
edited redundant 'base' L1.

Breaking >>>

Donald Trump says the US has completed strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan.

BBC News

Trump says US has bombed Fordo nuclear plant in attack on...

Earlier, Iran's foreign minister warned against US involvement in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran saying it would be "very very dangerous".

It will probably take several to do much damage, and even then, the amount of damage is questionable.
90 meters is a lot of depth to penetrate, but exits will certainly be compromised.
I only hope people are getting out before they risk being buried alive.

Next time they'll just build deeper.

Interesting how 47 always pivots wildly after campaign promises are made. He ran in 2024 on a platform of isolationism and US non-intervention. Wonder how the MAGAs who voted for that are handling this. There is certainly no guarantee that Iran will now just make peace. Both they and their client states could start setting up some kind of reprisal. It could be narrow, like attacking a US base in the region, or it could be broader - block Hormuz strait, get various proxies on a terrorist path, etc.

1 hour ago, MigL said:

It will probably take several to do much damage, and even then, the amount of damage is questionable.
90 meters is a lot of depth to penetrate, but exits will certainly be compromised.
I only hope people are getting out before they risk being buried alive.

Next time they'll just build deeper.

That's what I'm wondering about. Does that program, which cost billions to start, just reboot or are their finances depleted to where they will just try other methods that give more bang for the buck? My guess is that the super bomb the US used is actually capable of drilling down in there and took out the facility. (And two others). Will they do that all over again under another mountain or decide it's not worth all those billions for what could end up with the same outcome?

20 minutes ago, TheVat said:

Interesting how 47 always pivots wildly after campaign promises are made. He ran in 2024 on a platform of isolationism and US non-intervention. Wonder how the MAGAs who voted for that are handling this.

Proper MAGA's, like MTG, are not happy. It has been said the mid-terms are not looking good now for them and I think this show's going to run for a good while. It just goes to show Trump is pure opportunist and not 'true MAGA'.

8 hours ago, MigL said:

It will probably take several to do much damage, and even then, the amount of damage is questionable.
90 meters is a lot of depth to penetrate, but exits will certainly be compromised.
I only hope people are getting out before they risk being buried alive.

Next time they'll just build deeper.

6 hours ago, TheVat said:

Interesting how 47 always pivots wildly after campaign promises are made. He ran in 2024 on a platform of isolationism and US non-intervention. Wonder how the MAGAs who voted for that are handling this. There is certainly no guarantee that Iran will now just make peace. Both they and their client states could start setting up some kind of reprisal. It could be narrow, like attacking a US base in the region, or it could be broader - block Hormuz strait, get various proxies on a terrorist path, etc.

That's what I'm wondering about. Does that program, which cost billions to start, just reboot or are their finances depleted to where they will just try other methods that give more bang for the buck? My guess is that the super bomb the US used is actually capable of drilling down in there and took out the facility. (And two others). Will they do that all over again under another mountain or decide it's not worth all those billions for what could end up with the same outcome?

You raise an interesting point with the cost angle. It could be that a decision to reconstitute the nuclear programme, with the concomitant economic sacrifices demanded of Iran's people, might cause the downfall of the hardliners among the Serious Beards. This unprovoked attack will strengthen, not weaken, national unity, but the strategy they adopt in response could be a trickier path for them to navigate. However the notion of "regime change", referred to by Netanyahu, strikes me as pretty delusional - and probably is not meant seriously. Iran is a medium-sized industrial power of 90m people with an entire constitutional system. It's not just some one-man dictatorship, or S. American style military junta.

10 hours ago, toucana said:

Breaking >>>

BBC News

Trump says US has bombed Fordo nuclear plant in attack on...

Earlier, Iran's foreign minister warned against US involvement in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran saying it would be "very very dangerous".

So...apparently this is all smoke and mirrors. Those sites were empty and Iran knew the strikes were coming.

Scott Ritter said Donny was looking for an exit ramp to save face, and de-escalate away from a full blown confrontation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6-2xHhjrdM

More about Ritter: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Scott-Ritter/author/B001HO9B80?sr=8-2&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true&ccs_id=6374d450-a20d-4b2d-ae30-c07ca1cce969

Edited June 22Jun 22 by Alex_Krycek

1 hour ago, Alex_Krycek said:

So...apparently this is all smoke and mirrors. Those sites were empty and Iran knew the strikes were coming.

Scott Ritter said Donny was looking for an exit ramp to save face, and de-escalate away from a full blown confrontation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6-2xHhjrdM

More about Ritter: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Scott-Ritter/author/B001HO9B80?sr=8-2&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true&ccs_id=6374d450-a20d-4b2d-ae30-c07ca1cce969

What evidence do you have that "the sites were empty"? It's not easy to just move a nuclear fuel enrichment facility.