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6 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Tell him they should have a meeting with the Democrat Senators to explore possible ideas of how to break the impasse, including that one.

You think democratic senators haven’t been pushing McConnel to schedule a vote and sharing their ideas for how to get the government reopen for the past month already? 

6 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

How  do you recommend we go about convincing the GOP led Senate to schedule the vote which seems unlikely to occur,

Calls to their office plus rallies and protests reminding them that the ball’s in their court, and convincing others (like in this thread here and anywhere else people will listen).that the onus is on them right now to progress this forward. 

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5 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

How  do you recommend we go about convincing the GOP led Senate to schedule the vote which seems unlikely to occur, but I agree ought to?

Mitch McConnell has said he will open debate on Tuesday (Link) in attempt to turn Trump's recent DACA proposal into a compromise that would pass. Republican Senator Lankford (Link) said in an interview yesterday that Trump's proposal is just a straw man not meant to become law but that the Senate had request Trump put something out there so they could at least get debate going. Lankford supports opening the govt and then continuing the debate the wall. So at this point Republican Senators Lankford, Collins, Gardner, Murkoskwi, and Portman have all already openly supported opening the govt and continuing debate for Trump wall which is the Democratic proposal. Yesterday Mitt Romney called for a 3 week stop gap measure which would open the govt while Trump and Pelosi continue to debate Trump's wall (Link). So the Democratic position of debating the wall with an open govt already has the needed support to pass.

A two-thirds vote in the Senate overrides a Presidential veto. Having a majority Republican controlled Senate force a vote and override the Presidential veto would be a humiliating defeat for Trump personally and would fracture the parties base. Neither Trump or McConnell want that to happen. Mitch McConnell can only continue to hold up a Senate vote long as he can keep Republican Senators in line. 

So the answer to your question is for pressure to be put on individual Republican Senators. For example Florida has a large number of DHS employees who are currently not being paid. Florida has about 30 ports of entry where Custom Border Protection and TSA agent are going unpaid. Florida also has about 40 Coast Guard Units where members are also going unpaid. Yet Senators Scott and Rubio have been able to remain fairly quite. When local Veteran's groups, Service Unions, Religious Organizations, and other local advocacy groups which are critical to on the ground voter turnout efforts start pressuring Republican Senators this will be over. 

 

7 minutes ago, iNow said:

You think democratic senators haven’t been pushing McConnel to schedule a vote and sharing their ideas for how to get the government reopen for the past month already? 

Calls to their office plus rallies and protests reminding them that the ball’s in their court, and convincing others (like in this thread here and anywhere else people will listen).that the onus is on them right now to progress this forward. 

I think we are heading into the end game. Now that Trump finally put something out Republicans plan to open debate in the Senate. At the same time some Republicans have already publicly come out advocating for some form of a stopgap measure to allow debate with an open govt. So I think debate will begin on Tuesday and at the end of the week Senate Republicans will request Trump agree to a stopgap to continue debate. 

Of course debating with an open govt has been the Democratic position all along. Republicans will take credit for the idea and claim it from themselves. Graham, Romney, and others will come forward and make statements about allowing workers to get paid while Pelosi fights Trump to please her leftist base and blah, blah,blah.  It will give Trump the cover he needs to open the govt without looking like he has lost anything. Then Trump will have however long the stopgap measure last to create a new distraction (North Korea, Iran, or Syria seem likely) so we all forget about The Wall til he decides to bring up again this summer when 2020's budget is being negotiated. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

It will give Trump the cover he needs to open the govt without looking like he has lost anything. 

Great post overall, but we’ll see. Trump is being crucified by the right for offering “amnesty” and we’ve seen repeatedly his predilection for changing his mind when the likes of Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity tell him he’s losing and is doing something they don’t like. 

Edited by iNow

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2 minutes ago, iNow said:

Great post overall, but we’ll see. Trump is being crucified in the right for offering “amnesty” and we’ve seen repeatedly his predilection for changing his mind when the likes of Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity tell him he’s losing and don’t something they don’t like. 

I agree. That is where Republican Senators providing cover comes in. They (Republican Senators) can go to Trump on their knees asking for a DACA deal and Trump can say NO WAY and then agree to a stopgap that gets the govt open while demand Republican Senators take DACA off the table. Then Hannity, Coulter, and the rest can congratulate Trump for not bending to the Rino's call for amnesty. 

Like you said though we'll see. Tuesday (tomorrow) will be interesting. We should see what type of mechanism is used to structure the debate in the Senate. 

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10 hours ago, iNow said:

You think democratic senators haven’t been pushing McConnel to schedule a vote and sharing their ideas for how to get the government reopen for the past month already? 

No. You gave me a yes/no for focusing on capitulation by the Democrats instead of  McConnel proceeding with a vote. Both seemed unlikely but at least this one had some merit as it didn't imply capitulation. (I would have replied no to the reverse as well, but why clarify when this is IMO the better route of the two)

 

10 hours ago, iNow said:

Calls to their office plus rallies and protests reminding them that the ball’s in their court, and convincing others (like in this thread here and anywhere else people will listen).that the onus is on them right now to progress this forward. 

I'm not against this in principle if you mean reasonably respectful protests. But I think it is not a good tactic for them. They already overdid this during the Kavanaugh "trial". So they need to match that to have any effect, and if they do what is that going to look like? 

Again though...not against this in principle.

I don't have much better to add, but I think the Democrate might find something Trump might agree with. They, both Democrats and Trump, were elected. They need to find something acceptable to both. Ideally for them (Democrats) it would be something they could play down, but substantial enough that it looks better over time (say in 2020). Ideally for Trump it is something he can spin the other way.

Edited by J.C.MacSwell

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Yes, I'm still following this...

Of the two options you presented, INow...

"We should focus on getting McConnell to allow a vote in the Republican controlled Senate on any of the bills the Democratic controlled House has already passed instead of focusing on getting Democrats to capitulate."

If one doesn't work out ( for whatever reason ), are you prepared to go with the second ?
Or is there a third option ( like a shutdown till the next election )

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22 minutes ago, MigL said:

If one doesn't work out ( for whatever reason ), are you prepared to go with the second ?
Or is there a third option ( like a shutdown till the next election )

The second what? Sorry, think I missed something, but don’t want you to feel that I’m ignoring you. 

Something I laid out in this thread a while back, I’d pass the bills to reopen the government on the condition that border security negotiations continue (like democrats have repeatedly in the house). I’d then let the senate vote on that bill up or down, but allow a clean vote (something McConnell has blocked repeatedly and all month), and I’d send it to the presidents desk for signature. If Trump vetoes, it’d go back to the floor to see if the votes exist to overturn the veto and make it law. If they don’t, then it’s tine for me to come up with some third option  

It’s the fact that McConnell is blocking this with the same steadfastness that he blocked the entirely legitimate Merrick Garland nomination to the SCOTUS that has me assigning ownership for this fuster cluck very decidedly to the GOP right now.

You can’t overcome this kind of bad faith governance with more concessions and more capitulations because they’ll just move the goalposts again and again and keep asking for more.  This isn’t the giving tree. 

Edited by iNow

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33 minutes ago, iNow said:

The second what? Sorry, think I missed something, but don’t want you to feel that I’m ignoring you. 

Something I laid out in this thread a while back, I’d pass the bills to reopen the government on the condition that border security negotiations continue (like democrats have repeatedly in the house). I’d then let the senate vote on that bill up or down, but allow a clean vote (something McConnell has blocked repeatedly and all month), and I’d send it to the presidents desk for signature. If Trump vetoes, it’d go back to the floor to see if the votes exist to overturn the veto and make it law. If they don’t, then it’s tine for me to come up with some third option  

It’s the fact that McConnell is blocking this with the same steadfastness that he blocked the entirely legitimate Merrick Garland nomination to the SCOTUS that has me assigning ownership for this fuster cluck very decidedly to the GOP right now.

You can’t overcome this kind of bad faith governance with more concessions and more capitulations because they’ll just move the goalposts again and again and keep asking for more.  This isn’t the giving tree. 

So, assuming just the 3 options are available:

For you:

1. Option 1 McConell allows the vote

2. Option 3 Shutdown til 2020

3. Option 2 Dems  capitulate

Is this correct?

In the mean time I think it would help if everyone started calling this a wall...

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Edited by J.C.MacSwell

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9 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

In the mean time I think it would help if everyone started calling this a wall...

It would only matter if the president and his quickly diminishing base of supporters called that a wall. 

10 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Is this correct?

Are you asking me if those are the only options I see and if that’s how I’d prioritize them?

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2 minutes ago, iNow said:

It would only matter if the president and his quickly diminishing base of supporters called that a wall.

Can we not help them out?

 

3 minutes ago, iNow said:

Are you asking me if those are the only options I see and if that’s how I’d prioritize them?

Not at all. Just a hypothetical if it came down to that. I would actually assume 1,2,3, in that order, but your post left some doubt.

Essentially MigL's point...the third option is clearly the worst. Why die on that hill?

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4 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Can we not help them out?

Like how, specifically?

8 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Why die on that hill?

Because principles and precedents still matter for me. 

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Just now, iNow said:

Like how, specifically?

I was kidding. We help them by calling that a wall. Trump gets some fencing...gets to brag about how big a wall it is....much bigger than your average wall...

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23 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I was kidding. We help them by calling that a wall. Trump gets some fencing...gets to brag about how big a wall it is....much bigger than your average wall...

I’d laugh if this whole situation weren’t so sad. 

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Pretty pathetic that Disaster relief and protection for women from violence are treated as fair trade from the Right for Trump to have his Wall. Both seem like things the govt should absolutely be doing regardless. 

Quote

 

The Senate measure is likely to encompass funding for the president's wall as well as funding for the 25 percent of the government that's been shut down for the last month. The bill may also include billions of dollars in disaster aid and an extension on a bill that protects women from violence, aides said.

It remains to be seen if the bill will advance in the Senate, given that most Democrats are united in demanding that President Donald Trump must reopen the government before they will begin talks about funding border security. Link

 

 

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21 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

What does anyone think of this strategy on letting Trump have his wall in this Reuters opinion piece. It's more thinking on the long game.It's about a five minute read.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mitchell-wall-commentary/commentary-why-trumps-border-wall-would-backfire-on-him-idUSKCN1PG25B

My thought on the points listed in the Article:

"First, most experts on immigration agree that the wall will not solve any of the problems cited by Trump." - Trump is lying about many of the problems and his base doesn't care. Reality or the situation at the border doesn't factor into this much. 

"Second, the wall will be extremely expensive." - Trump led his supporters in chants that Mexico would pay for the wall and now that he is demanding tax prayer float the bill his base remains in place. Trump supporters do not seem care how much it costs or who pays. 

"A third point is that the wall will probably never be completed" - of course not as a physical structure but as a symbol it can be.

"The fourth problem is the question of who will build the wall" - Trump more the goal posts constantly. Who is to say his Wall would be a Wall or even a fence? Trump might use the 5.7 billion dollars in armed drones, claim victory, and say armed drones are better than any Wall. Asking who would pay for the Wall naively assumes the Wall is a tangible thing Trump gives 2 sh!ts about.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

My thought on the points listed in the Article:

"First, most experts on immigration agree that the wall will not solve any of the problems cited by Trump." - Trump is lying about many of the problems and his base doesn't care. Reality or the situation at the border doesn't factor into this much. 

"Second, the wall will be extremely expensive." - Trump led his supporters in chants that Mexico would pay for the wall and now that he is demanding tax prayer float the bill his base remains in place. Trump supporters do not seem care how much it costs or who pays. 

"A third point is that the wall will probably never be completed" - of course not as a physical structure but as a symbol it can be.

"The fourth problem is the question of who will build the wall" - Trump more the goal posts constantly. Who is to say his Wall would be a Wall or even a fence? Trump might use the 5.7 billion dollars in armed drones, claim victory, and say armed drones are better than any Wall. Asking who would pay for the Wall naively assumes the Wall is a tangible thing Trump gives 2 sh!ts about.

 

 

You don't think it would work out that way?

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32 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

You don't think it would work out that way?

My suspicion is that the sorts of people who are swayed by those types of facts have already abandoned Trump. Those who continue supporting him after EVERYTHING that’s happened couldn’t care less about the facts. End program (maybe some shifts at the margins once Muellers report is out, but not much).  

I’m reminded of a toddler losing her mind before dinner because her parents wouldn’t let her sit at the head of the table. Patiently explaining to her that the table is round and that there is no “head” of it unfortunately doesn’t end the tantrum. 

Edited by iNow

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27 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

You don't think it would work out that way?

No, I am also worried about 2020's budget. The Federal budget runs October through September. The budget we are currently shutdown over was is a stopgap budget written by Congress when Republicans still controlled the House. The govt is shut down for a record breaking amount of time and this budget was done up by those from Trump's own party. It only gets uglier from here. The govt hasn't even been open since Democrats took the House. This summer when 2020's budget is being written I expect things to be considerably worse than they are now and another shutdown in September is nearly a certainty. How this one ends will impact the tone of the next one 8 months from now. 

3 minutes ago, iNow said:

My suspicion is that the sorts of people who are swayed by those types of facts have already abandoned Trump. Those who remain couldn’t care less about the facts. 

I’m reminded of a toddler losing her mind before dinner because her parents wouldn’t let her sit at the head of the table. Patiently explaining to her that the table is round and that there is no “head” of it unfortunately doesn’t end the tantrum. 

Trump has already move the goal posts so far from the days of leading chants that Mexico will pay for the Wall that anyone still with obvious doesn't about what actually ends up happening. They are just along for the ride. 

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3 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

This summer when 2020's budget is being written I expect things to be considerably worse than they are now and another shutdown in September is nearly a certainty. How this one ends will impact the tone of the next one 8 months from now.

I doubt it.

If it results in a humiliating defeat for Trump this time, I doubt he'd do it again.

If it results in a humiliating defeat for Democrats this time, I doubt they'd do it again.

The people elected now will still be elected later. Memories might not stay in the general populations mind for long, but it will stay in politicians long enough to affect the likely hood of another shutdown.

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8 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

I doubt it.

If it results in a humiliating defeat for Trump this time, I doubt he'd do it again.

If it results in a humiliating defeat for Democrats this time, I doubt they'd do it again.

The people elected now will still be elected later. Memories might not stay in the general populations mind for long, but it will stay in politicians long enough to affect the likely hood of another shutdown.

Only time will tell. Thus far Paul Ryan controlled the budgets Trump has been operating on. Paul Ryan is gone.This summer Pelosi will be overseeing the creation of the 2020 budget. Trump got tax cuts, DOD increase, DHS increase, cuts to ACA funding, Cuts to assistance programs, and etc with relative easy under Paul Ryan. For 2020's budget everything will be a negotiation and I don't know if you've noticed but Trump throws tantrums when he negotiates. 

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51 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

Only time will tell.

Agreed.

 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/us/politics/government-shutdown-senate.html

Quote

The Senate will hold competing votes on Thursday on President Trump’s proposal to spend $5.7 billion on a border wall and on a Democratic bill that would fund the government through Feb. 8 without a wall. It will be the first time the Senate has stepped off the sidelines to try to end the monthlong government shutdown.

The procedural move by Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, and Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, is the first time the parties have agreed to do virtually anything since the shutdown began Dec. 22. With most Republicans united behind Mr. Trump’s insistence that any legislation to reopen the government include money for a border wall and most Democrats opposed to the linkage, neither measure is expected to draw the 60 votes required to advance.

<...>

In the Senate, Mr. Trump’s proposal, which he promoted in a televised address on Saturday as a bipartisan compromise to pair wall funding with temporary legal protections for some immigrants, is facing all but certain death after White House officials conceded privately on Tuesday they had tacked on controversial proposals anathema to Democrats that would block many migrants from seeking asylum.

<...>

[The measure] would make it more difficult for people to seek refuge in the United States from persecution and violence at home. Among them were provisions to bar Central American children from claiming asylum inside the United States, requiring them instead to do so in their own countries, and allow any of them to be quickly sent back to their own countries.

Another revision would create a host of new grounds for deeming an asylum claim “frivolous,” including if the migrant seeking protection was also trying to obtain work authorization, had used a fraudulent document — knowingly or unknowingly — or did not file in a timely way.

I fail to see how anyone at this point can honestly maintain the position that all sides here are acting in good faith. 

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/government-shutdown-chris-cuomo-media-both-sides-trump-border-wall.html

Quote

one thing you can’t do, if you consider yourself an objective and responsible political analyst, is suggest that both parties are equally responsible for the existence of the current standoff. The root cause of the shutdown was not a bipartisan failure of “job performance,” but rather, the president’s decision to deliberately inflict suffering on the American people, as a means of coercing a coequal branch of government into doing his bidding.

That might sound like a partisan jab. But it is plain description of political reality.

 

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On 1/13/2019 at 5:16 AM, John Cuthber said:

It seems there's one thing the Republicans are better at.

Trying to screw over  the workforce.

Funny. Because all but 10 Democrats voted against paying federal workers:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/10-dems-break-with-leaders-support-gop-bill-to-pay-workers-during-the-shutdown

 

But it's the Republicans holding federal workers hostage.

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10 minutes ago, Raider5678 said:

Funny. Because all but 10 Democrats voted against paying federal workers:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/10-dems-break-with-leaders-support-gop-bill-to-pay-workers-during-the-shutdown

 

But it's the Republicans holding federal workers hostage.

From your link:

Quote

Democratic leaders decided to call up a bill Wednesday to fund the entire government. But just before the final vote, Republicans made a motion to erase that bill and instead vote on a measure to ensure federal workers are paid.

Yesterday Democrats did pass a bill to fund the whole govt. It too would pay federal workers. 223 Democrats voted for it. So hundreds of Democrats did in fact vote to pay federal workers yesterday. 

Quote

 

The House passed a Democratic-backed package of six appropriations bills Wednesday that would fund the government through the end of the fiscal year.

The legislation, which passed in a 234-180 vote and would fund the government through Sept. 30, is the 10th clean-funding measure that Democrats have voted on to end the partial government shutdown, with most of them passing in the chamber.

Link

 

These votes are meaningless less the Senate passes something and Trump signs it.  

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