His deliberate incursions into NATO members airspace is obviously trying to get a positive reaction from the West.

I don't buy the idea that he's testing for weakness, I think he's hoping to drag China into the conflict.

Otherwise he's just poking a bear for fun.

Or, like trump does with the constitution, he’s pushing boundaries (literally and rhetorically) to do whatever he wants since nobody can stop him… at least not with sanctions and sternly worded letters

Recent testing of the tripwire in Europe may well be intended to draw the attention and resources of the EU and NATO towards the Baltic and thus away from the emerging plans for defence of Ukraine.

The cyber attack on EU airport systems today is likely part of the same operation.

22 hours ago, iNow said:

Or, like trump does with the constitution, he’s pushing boundaries (literally and rhetorically) to do whatever he wants since nobody can stop him… at least not with sanctions and sternly worded letters

Indeed, but when one of his innocent pilots is shot down during a routine flight, who's he going to go crying to... As stalin said "one anecdotal death is diplorable, a million deaths is a statistic"...

20 hours ago, exchemist said:

Recent testing of the tripwire in Europe may well be intended to draw the attention and resources of the EU and NATO towards the Baltic and thus away from the emerging plans for defence of Ukraine.

The cyber attack on EU airport systems today is likely part of the same operation.

Indeed, but I wonder if the, recent, Russian version of the Eurovision song contest is designed to draw in his allies; he can't win on his own.

Let us not forget the initial timing; how many day's after China hosted the Olympic game's did he choose to start this?

On 9/20/2025 at 1:36 PM, dimreepr said:

Otherwise he's just poking a bear for fun.

The bear is a well-known national symbol of Russia..

Edited September 21Sep 21 by Sensei

1 hour ago, dimreepr said:

when one of his innocent pilots is shot down during a routine flight, who's he going to go crying to.

Nobody. It’s a numbers game for him. Russia has already lost approximately 200,000 troops in Ukraine and he keeps sending more. They’re dispensable.

9 minutes ago, iNow said:

Russia has already lost approximately 200,000 troops in Ukraine and he keeps sending more. They’re dispensable.

They lost 200k just this year, 2025.

140k-200k was just prisoners.

Edited September 21Sep 21 by Sensei

On 9/20/2025 at 7:36 AM, dimreepr said:

I don't buy the idea that he's testing for weakness,

Not even political weakness? Showing that the US will not honor its obligations?

On 9/20/2025 at 7:36 AM, dimreepr said:

I think he's hoping to drag China into the conflict.

What’s the chain of events that gets China involved?

1 minute ago, swansont said:

What’s the chain of events that gets China involved?

It's complicated...

2 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

It's complicated...

You brought it up.

Chinese politicians are satisfied by the situation because they have subjugated Russia and have cheap oil. Getting involved in the fight would mean problems with selling goods and a possible trade blockade. The first targets would be oil tankers, because they are the easiest targets. So the prosperity in the form of cheap fuel would come to an end.

Edited September 21Sep 21 by Sensei

What does Putin hope to gain?

What does any idealogue want ?

He wants to force his irrational ideas on others and show off to his supporters what a big boy he is.

2 hours ago, Sensei said:

Chinese politicians are satisfied by the situation because they have subjugated Russia and have cheap oil. Getting involved in the fight would mean problems with selling goods and a possible trade blockade. The first targets would be oil tankers, because they are the easiest targets. So the prosperity in the form of cheap fuel would come to an end.

The more appropriate framing IMO is that what’s happening with Russia in Ukraine is a significant factor around timing and planning for China to invade Taiwan (oops, sorry… I meant “reunify”).

Ukraine is both a distraction and also a clear example of the fecklessness of the west and the US more specifically. It reminds everyone of how neither are able to stop them nor act in ways that deliver meaningful punishment (something beyond a slap on the wrist).

It’s also a good way to ally the 2 powers against the US. A Russia backed by China in Ukraine and a China backed by Russia in Taiwan are a much stronger force with which to contend, one not so easily stopped by the US.

Cooperation between China and Russia should remind us of the ties between Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany in WWII. There are clear benefits to both when aligning.

21 hours ago, swansont said:

You brought it up.

What I mean is, I don't know bc I lack the context to make a best guess, there was clearly a nod and a wink between them at the start of this, maybe as strong as a NATO article 5; perhaps an antipode version, where China agreed to not let them lose.

What exactly would trigger that agreement, only China really knows, meanwhile Putin keeps nudging them and winking.

20 hours ago, studiot said:

What does any idealogue want ?

He wants to force his irrational ideas on others and show off to his supporters what a big boy he is.

Indeed, but not everyone is equal. 😉

4 hours ago, dimreepr said:

ndeed, but not everyone is equal. 😉

Otherwise there would not be big boys and little boys.

On 9/21/2025 at 7:00 PM, iNow said:

The more appropriate framing IMO is that what’s happening with Russia in Ukraine is a significant factor around timing and planning for China to invade Taiwan (oops, sorry… I meant “reunify”).

Ukraine is both a distraction and also a clear example of the fecklessness of the west and the US more specifically. It reminds everyone of how neither are able to stop them nor act in ways that deliver meaningful punishment (something beyond a slap on the wrist).

It’s also a good way to ally the 2 powers against the US. A Russia backed by China in Ukraine and a China backed by Russia in Taiwan are a much stronger force with which to contend, one not so easily stopped by the US.

Cooperation between China and Russia should remind us of the ties between Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany in WWII. There are clear benefits to both when aligning.

All this talk about Taiwan is nonsense. China is big and does not need anything what Taiwan has. Does it have any natural resources that China might want? I doubt it. The resources they want to, fly away with on the first plane after the attack.

Nationalist, imperialist, and communist visions of leadership, etc., etc., can of course influence such delusional leaders to the point that they imagine non-existing things. But the same thing works for you in the US.

Any attempt to attack Taiwan would result in:

1) Extreme hostility of the Taiwanese population towards China. (There is sufficient hostility toward them among Hong Kong residents)

2) The flight of those with resources, i.e., scientists, business people, and engineers, abroad.

3) The destruction of electronics factories in Taiwan.

4) The export of the rest of the factories abroad.

The only result China would achieve would be a reduction in electronics production by the competitor they attacked.

But the consequence would be a loss of customers for electronics and any Chinese goods from EU/US countries and the rest of the West.

In their irrationality, Putin's supporters demanded that, along with the truce with Ukraine, Europe resume importing oil and gas from their country. What utter stupidity.

How detached from reality must one be to even suggest such a thing during “peace” negotiations?

If someone brought gasoline for $0.25 per liter here at the gas station and said it was from the Russians, no one would go there anyway, except for traitors.

All it would take is a rumor that a gas station got it from the Russians, and no one would go there anymore.

It could have been $0.1, and it would have been used to burn down the gas station itself.

The attack on Ukraine is the result of thinking in a way that dates back more than 200 years... conquer a country, and those people will be our subjects, and they will be wonderfully happy to have a new master X instead of Y..

They completely slept through the entire process of transformation from a feudal system to a market economy, free trade, and free will for citizens.

They think in their tiny, brainless brains that you can turn the tide with a stick.

Intellectually, they really are 200 years behind.

Remnants of Ukraine, regardless of what it looks like, will hate Russians for a hundreds years..

Before 2014, Ukrainians voted once for a pro-European politician, then for a pro-Russian politician when the former started doing what his predecessors did, stealing and behaving badly. Later, vice versa. This had been going on since the 1990s, but due to the attack in 2014 and later in 2022, the Russians committed seppuku, and now no Ukrainian, even if they were to die of hunger, would vote for any openly pro-Russian politician.

How can you be so stupid as to do something so ridiculous?

It's hard to find anyone as detached from reality as Putin.

59 minutes ago, Sensei said:

All this talk about Taiwan is nonsense

That’s certainly one opinion. I’m inclined to believe the folks in my national security and defense focused feeds though. Time will tell.

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

All it would take is a rumor that a gas station got it from the Russians, and no one would go there anymore.

It could have been $0.1, and it would have been used to burn down the gas station itself.

Some, in fact, would. Market pressures are complex.

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

The attack on Ukraine is the result of thinking in a way that dates back more than 200 years... conquer a country, and those people will be our subjects, and they will be wonderfully happy to have a new master X instead of Y.

Most invaders recognize that’s not true, but proceed because they don’t care and are focused on alternative objectives.

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

This had been going on since the 1990s, but due to the attack in 2014 and later in 2022, the Russians committed seppuku, and now no Ukrainian, even if they were to die of hunger, would vote for any openly pro-Russian politician.

Actually, many would and already have. Elections too are complex.

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

All this talk about Taiwan is nonsense. China is big and does not need anything what Taiwan has. Does it have any natural resources that China might want? I doubt it. The resources they want to, fly away with on the first plane after the attack.

Well, apart from the pot of gold that is Taiwan, I think you lack the cultural context at play and therefore the understanding of the motivation China might have...

4 minutes ago, iNow said:

That’s certainly one opinion. I’m inclined to believe the folks in my national security and defense focused feeds though. Time will tell.

Which one? After the purges, there are no competent people left there. There are only those who enter the rear without lubrication.

I did deny the goal you mention - reunification, occupation of land. I did not deny the goal of making the West completely dependent on Chinese electronics. If you attack a country that produces processors, electronic elements, etc., it will stop producing them, so countries that need them will have a problem. So they would have to attack South Korea and Japan at the same time to completely cut off the West from electronics. This reunification would only be a pretext.

The Chinese are not idiots. They saw what happened after Russia's attack on Ukraine. They thought it would be razzle-dazzle and voila.

And here it turned out that the “invincible Russian army” was unable to cope with some “peasants and Tatars.”.. although the depth of the sea did not separate them from them..

Ordinary (and poor) people (those who would be took to fight) have some ridiculous ideas about European countries, etc., dating back to Soviet times. They can confuse Poland with the Netherlands (Holand) (Poland and Holand in Chinese are almost the same word), and they ask every Pole in China about the war, not understanding that it is almost 2-3 thousand kilometers away. The distance from Warsaw to Moscow is less than as from Warsaw to Donbas (where are the fights). And from Turkey, 200 km less.. I wonder if every Turk they meet on the street is asked, “How are things going with the war over there in Ukraine?” Google Maps is banned in China, so they can't check how far everything is.

6 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Well, apart from the pot of gold that is Taiwan, [...]

An example of primitive thinking, from hundreds of years ago, before the modern era. According to the Internet, Taiwan's gold reserves amount to 100 tons in mines. According to my calculations, this is worth $12 billion. It's simply laughable to start such a military operation to get such “pennies.”.

After the first day of naval combat, the losses will be greater.

21 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

I think you lack the cultural context at play and therefore the understanding of the motivation China might have...

If someone wants war and can profit from it, any excuse will do, even if they create it themselves, e.g., some kind of provocation.

But let's be serious.

I would rather focus on analyzing television broadcasts on Chinese TV channels. Are they inciting their citizens to war?

You talk as if “the country” were some kind of cosmic creature that thinks for itself and does whatever it wants, but that's not how it works. These are individuals. So it wasn't “Russia that attacked Ukraine,” but “Putin who gave the orders.” The same is true in the case of China. Citizens will do whatever their (beloved) leader tells them to do.

Are you in Xi's head? Then log out. Because you don't understand Chinese anyway..

For the average Chinese person, the most important things in life are peace and quiet and a good meal.

It is not without reason that their greeting is “Have you eaten yet?”

你吃了吗？

肚子饿了

我想吃北京烤鸭。

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Some, in fact, would. Market pressures are complex.

You'll do anything for money..

It doesn't work that way here..

Lukoil had to sell its several hundred gas stations because no one wanted to fill up there.

In 2016. Long before the real war.

1 hour ago, iNow said:

and now no Ukrainian, even if they were to die of hunger, would vote for any openly pro-Russian politician.

Actually, many would and already have.

There were no elections after the attack in 2022.

Which one of these are pro-russian?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_election

1 hour ago, iNow said:

Elections too are complex.

The simplest ones are the ones that are rigged. ;)

Ni che le ma?

On 9/23/2025 at 1:31 PM, Sensei said:

An example of primitive thinking, from hundreds of years ago, before the modern era. According to the Internet, Taiwan's gold reserves amount to 100 tons in mines. According to my calculations, this is worth $12 billion. It's simply laughable to start such a military operation to get such “pennies.”.

After the first day of naval combat, the losses will be greater.

Way to miss a metaphor, their economy is worth, an order or two of magnitude, more than $12 billion.

It's simply laughable to suggest that's not, at least, part of the motivation.

Personally, I think that's just an added bonus, to the true motivation of China's, noted, aspirations...

China is just sitting back and learning and rubbing its hands with glee as the balance of power is being tipped in their favour, with every trick play Putin is throwing our way...

On 9/23/2025 at 1:31 PM, Sensei said:

For the average Chinese person, the most important things in life are peace and quiet and a good meal.

It is not without reason that their greeting is “Have you eaten yet?”

Oh wow, I never suspected that you are Chinese...

It's not without reason that my greeting is "hello, how are you"

Can you show a logical reason why the two doesn't mean the same thing, but from a different POV?

Edited September 24Sep 24 by dimreepr

Previously I had suggested a plan for Trump to stop the war in Ukraine. If you don't like my plan, here is one more: Trump would publicly suggest Putin to perform this referendum, and say that otherwise Trump would deliver Tomahawks to Ukraine. If Putin refuses to perform this referendum, he will have to explain the Russians his motives – a nuclear war is better than the referendum? Don’t you feel how strange does this look?

19 hours ago, Linkey said:

Previously I had suggested a plan for Trump to stop the war in Ukraine. If you don't like my plan, here is one more: Trump would publicly suggest Putin to perform this referendum, and say that otherwise Trump would deliver Tomahawks to Ukraine. If Putin refuses to perform this referendum, he will have to explain the Russians his motives – a nuclear war is better than the referendum? Don’t you feel how strange does this look?

Trump just wants a deal, he's like a second hand car dealer that wants his name on the, dealer of the month, wall.

Putin knows that all he has to do is wait for the last day of the month, and Trump will practically give it away.

On 9/20/2025 at 9:18 AM, iNow said:

Or, like trump does with the constitution, he’s pushing boundaries (literally and rhetorically) to do whatever he wants since nobody can stop him… at least not with sanctions and sternly worded letters

What did trump do with the constitution? No one can stop him? Didn't the courts rule his claim the 2020 election was stolen was false, not even worth hearing? Didn't the courts put Jan6ers in prison? You are free to complain all you want. I get it. But most everything trump wants to do has been challenged court. If the courts rules against him he doesn't do it. Please remind me what supreme court ruling trump has ignored? Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Biden ignore the supreme court ruling against his power to give students debt relief? But Biden went ahead, and did it? What supreme court ruling did trump ignore? Not claiming to know everything would like to know.