CharonY Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, J.C.MacSwell said: Is it not 33 for Trump and 67 for Biden? Yes sorry, brainfart. 67 Trump would have been... bad. Well, worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C.MacSwell Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 hours ago, iNow said: I’m unsurprised by Alberta since that’s oil country, but I’d love a more granular age breakdown that showed 18-24 separate from 25-44. Interestingly Alberta has one of the higher Ukrainian populations of the Canadian Provinces at almost 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 90% reporting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVat Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Wash Post mentions some of the blaming going on.... Quote The Haley fans blamed the cold for keeping young families at home. They blamed the media narrative of Trump's inevitability for discouraging whatever motivation could have pushed anti-Trump Republicans to show up in subzero temperatures. Something to that first one. Younger women were more supportive of Haley, but getting to the gyms was not easy last night. I found it interesting that 2/3 of Haley supporters are polling as they will not vote for Trump in the general. That could be a fatal slice in November if that holds (big if) in other states. As much as fifteen percent of LVs perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharonY Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/15/2024 at 12:36 PM, iNow said: I’m unsurprised by Alberta since that’s oil country, but I’d love a more granular age breakdown that showed 18-24 separate from 25-44. I have not checked it, but I think there was a Legere poll that had it broken down more. I also just saw a poll in Germany (from 2020, so things might have changed with the AfD getting so popular) where about 89% were in favour of Biden and 4% preferred Trump. I hypothesize that stupid is in fact contagious and driven by proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C.MacSwell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) 7 hours ago, TheVat said: Wash Post mentions some of the blaming going on.... Something to that first one. Younger women were more supportive of Haley, but getting to the gyms was not easy last night. I found it interesting that 2/3 of Haley supporters are polling as they will not vote for Trump in the general. That could be a fatal slice in November if that holds (big if) in other states. As much as fifteen percent of LVs perhaps. It would be nice to think that even though it's Iowa, 49% are at least able to avoid the Trump Kool-aid enough to consider voting for others. Also Haley didn't have the political machinery in place to get the vote out despite the weather, That may have stopped her from coming second. She needs to take a big step forward in New Hampshire. Edited January 17 by J.C.MacSwell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 40 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: It would be nice to think that even though it's Iowa, 49% are at least able to avoid the Trump Kool-aid enough to consider voting for others. There are 2.1 Million registered voters in Iowa. Last night, only 110K of them caucused. That's 5% turnout overall. About half of those, around 2-3%, declared for Trump. Even if we look just specifically at those voting eligible constituents registered as Republican, approximately 85% of those stayed home and didn’t even bother to show up. That 49% you cite is closer to 2% of the state… having a rather sizable impact on who gets to be the next POTUS with a huge per vote weighting. 52 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: She needs to take a big step forward in New Hampshire. I don’t think it will matter, especially if she can’t then carry the 3rd state in the primary (South Carolina) where she happened to serve as Governor. It seems Trump called Senator Tim Scott (R senator from SC and who dropped out of the GOP primary) immediately after the Iowa results to request his endorsement. He’s gotten better at it all this time around. Less sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/16/2024 at 8:45 PM, iNow said: It seems Trump called Senator Tim Scott (R senator from SC and who dropped out of the GOP primary) immediately after the Iowa results to request his endorsement. He’s gotten better at it all this time around. Less sloppy. And today he got it. Senator Scott surrendered his integrity card and bent the knee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) 7 hours ago, iNow said: And today he got it. Senator Scott surrendered his integrity card and bent the knee They can't all be Liz Cheney's... that takes balls. And there we have it, a black man capuitulating to a racist white man whose busy ripping the electoral eliligibility of a female child of Indian immigrants. Tmp is fkg scm. Edited January 20 by StringJunky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toucana Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Donald Trump apparently confused Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi 4 times in a single sentence while addressing a rally in Concord NH on Friday. TFG was trying to run one of his habitual lies about the Jan 6 insurrection by claiming that the Speaker Nancy Pelosi was to blame for the lack of security around the Capitol that day. Unfortunately Trump’s cognitive failures are now so frequent (and so severe), that he thinks Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley are one and the same person, and that the latter was Speaker of the House in the last months of his presidency. He also referred to George Conway (not Concord) as the capital of New Hampshire in the same speech. This is unlikely to end well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGTJy1Ij4Qk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 And yet his attacks on Bidens age stick and his supporters don’t care about his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 He’s definitely getting better at this. FiveThirtyEight reports that he’s begun actively surrounding himself with prominent well placed leaders from South Carolina as a direct attempt to undercut any credit Haley might seize due to her time there as Governor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 So Trump figures it's a good idea to personally and pretty much overtly put a stick in the spokes of any substantially improved potential border deals and then blame Biden for the lack of improvements? How dumb does he expect the voters to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharonY Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: So Trump figures it's a good idea to personally and pretty much overtly put a stick in the spokes of any substantially improved potential border deals and then blame Biden for the lack of improvements? How dumb does he expect the voters to be? I mean, they will still vote for him and say that he is the only to fix it. You can draw your own conclusions from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, J.C.MacSwell said: So Trump figures it's a good idea to personally and pretty much overtly put a stick in the spokes of any substantially improved potential border deals and then blame Biden for the lack of improvements? How dumb does he expect the voters to be? His narcissism has deigned that he will personally deal with it, so the world just has to wait. This is how "critical and dangerous" the border situation is... not much can happen in 9 months until the election... can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, CharonY said: I mean, they will still vote for him and say that he is the only to fix it. You can draw your own conclusions from there. I can see him expecting 2/3 of the GOP to be pretty damn stupid...they're acting like it...but how will this get him elected in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: I can see him expecting 2/3 of the GOP to be pretty damn stupid...they're acting like it...but how will this get him elected in November If you can't get the ball in the hole, move the hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharonY Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: I can see him expecting 2/3 of the GOP to be pretty damn stupid...they're acting like it...but how will this get him elected in November It really only depends on how the swing states decide. Popular vote still remains close for the most part. But honestly, I suspect your first mistake is to assume that folks are making informed decisions. Hasn't the pandemic taught you anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, CharonY said: It really only depends on how the swing states decide. Popular vote still remains close for the most part. All the gerrymandering by both sides over years has created that situation, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharonY Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, StringJunky said: All the gerrymandering by both sides over years has created that situation, I think. I think it is part of the issue but not the cause. I vaguely recall also that both sides are not quite the same, on the state level some papers have argued that the GOP is doing significantly more, and in congress a swing to the Democrats was apparently due to court decisions striking down GOP Gerrymandering. But I do not really recall much detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StringJunky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, CharonY said: I think it is part of the issue but not the cause. I vaguely recall also that both sides are not quite the same, on the state level some papers have argued that the GOP is doing significantly more, and in congress a swing to the Democrats was apparently due to court decisions striking down GOP Gerrymandering. But I do not really recall much detail. I would agree that GOP do it more often, but I have read here and there that the Dems aren't averse to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharonY Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, StringJunky said: I would agree that GOP do it more often, but I have read here and there that the Dems aren't averse to it. Oh yes, I am sure they do. I am not entirely sure on which level, though and whether there is ongoing trend or just the pendulum swing (due to undoing of some existing Gerrymandering). But yes, as a whole there is no (AFAIK) fundamental aversion against it among Dems (or at least I think there isn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iNow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 53 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said: How dumb does he expect the voters to be? Just the right amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C.MacSwell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 59 minutes ago, iNow said: Just the right amount. Or just enough to claim it should be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVat Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said: I can see him expecting 2/3 of the GOP to be pretty damn stupid...they're acting like it...but how will this get him elected in November Because, annoying but true fact, Republicans vote. They show up, without fail, no matter the weather or other obstacles. This has been a vexation for Democrats for a long time: in many elections, registered Democrats just didn't get to the polls in the same numbers. In some cases, there have been regressive election laws and practices that disfavored traditional Democrat bases, but in others it's really just poor turnout. Could be Democrats are less inclined to the kind of zealous cultism and extremism that will reliably get everyone out to vote, or a combination of factors that include cynicism about politics, beliefs that gerrymandering nullify their vote, or just being too busy trying to make rent. And, last but not least, our Electoral College system favors Red states and electing the candidate who lost the popular vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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