iNow

Still don’t follow. Perhaps you’re asking why they are slower to announce their projections?

Right now it looks like she’s gonna lose IMO I don’t understand your question

I wiped my ass after a giant dump today and the stain looked like DJTs face so there’s a counterpoint that might be a bad omen for Trump. We’ll know when we know.

Shall I chase it like some wild goose, or perhaps instead you could elaborate as a show of courtesy?

And to you that is a reflection of pure democracy?

<groan> lol

You're not wrong that other polls have different narratives around Trumps position in Iowa and I'm certainly not hanging my hat on this one. In fact, I fully expect Trump to carry Iowa despite my and my friends best efforts, but what this poll DOES show is that the nearly 20 point lead Trump had in Iowa circa July has not only shrunk significantly, but effectively been eliminated and become a virtual tie. This aligns with trends coming from the Cook Political report where Iowa went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican to now Toss-Up. The bigger story here IMO is how this Iowa poll suggests likely weakness in other rural counties in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, potentially even Pennsylvania (though I'm doubtful on this last one). Given Trumps consistently low ceiling, weakness in any of these places amplifies the risk to his chances. This particular poll, while being an outlier and different from other good ones, does have the benefit of coming from Anne Seltzer who is fairly universally seen as one of (if not THE) best pollster in the US. Not decisive, but a big part of the reason it's getting so much traction.

Whether or not we move toward the popular vote when choosing the president, moving away from the electoral college seems like a rather obvious improvement. Doing so in parallel with implementing ranked choice voting could go a very long way toward reducing many of the self-inflicted wounds we keep experiencing election after election after election today.

I think you should consider a nice herbal or at least decaf. Lol

Source: Trust me, bruh

When it was explicitly stated above that’s what’s under discussion here?

Lots of atheists believe lots of silly unfounded things. They just dismiss the concept of a magical bearded cloud surfer who cares whether you masturbate or eat certain meats on Fridays etc.

Not really, no. Early voting trends only give insights into what early voters are doing and tells little to nothing about the election or potential outcome overall. Don’t get caught up trying to read tea leaves and chicken entrails. We’ll know when we know.

The hint is right there in the word “pure.” Once a constitution puts limits or guardrails or constraints on the vote in any way it’s no longer a “pure” or direct democracy.

It’s exactly the wives of those men to whom this ad is targeted. Exactly. In a rather significant way. Being down this year relative to pandemic panic voting is both unsurprising and expected.

Because they have eyes and ears mostly Seconded

Education and social safety net resources to support those in poverty tend to be a fairly universal good in these scenarios. Violence is more common under financial stress and feelings of hopelessness. That’s on the prevention side, but it’s still going to happen and when it does those being abused need shelters and safe places with food and counselors to take (hide?) themselves and their kids. Again here everything is easier when you’re not dealing with poverty or an inability to flee bc of financial deficits, returning to my previous point around education and well funded social safety nets..

Details matter, but so do orders of magnitude and scale. Yes, I think concern on this topic is a needless anxiety.

Lol 😂

Especially since Trump could also hurt his Amazon and BlueOrigin properties It’s not like Trump voters give a shit about what WaPo says. Lamestream media cries go all the way back to Sarah Palin.

Unless it prevents you from successfully mating with a partner and producing offspring that survive and also reproduce, there's nothing stopping it from carrying forward in the population.

There's significant construction work being done in our neighborhood. Lots of excavators and roads being dug up, new water drain lines buried, etc. Got to speaking with a member of their crew yesterday. Tall muscular guy, mid-40s. Said he's a former Marine. Spent some time in a motorcycle gang. Did tattoo work, even corporate security before moving into large city funded construction projects. Within a few minutes, he'd shared that racism isn't real and is just a media invented narrative, that Hitler didn't hate "the Jews" and was mostly just mad bc they tried taking his gold away from him, that Hitler even had black Nazis controlling things in Africa so "stop believing all the lies," he shared that "the largest slave owners were actually the native americans," and he even started scrolling through photos and social media posts on his phone to show me and prove all of this was real and relevant as he next moved into commenting that "Nixon moving away from the gold standard is what set all of our problems into motion." It's not simple vaccinating against this. I could've knocked down each of those claims one by one, but he'd just Gish Gallop into 20 more that support his preconceptions. Critical thinking diseases in meme'd minds is an extremely real problem.

The "manosphere" seems to apply here, too. It's a prominent grouping mechanism in this current election with toxic tones. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manosphere

They did vote in 2016, just a smaller fraction of them. He's looking to significantly expand the footprint of those doing so this year. Agreed. You're not cynical. You're paying attention.