Politics

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/al-smith-dinner-obama-mcc_n_135455.html It's good to see that the candidates can make fun of each other and themselves without it being personal. This was a really good idea at this point before the election. It lets the voters know that we're all still human. I thought Obama's speech was particularly funny. better quality mccain video:

Lets just think in some hypothetical political world the politicians unite to pass some energy reform bill that is to work in 12 years. This is how the plan would hopefully work as I see it and I just wonder if it would be possible. We open up the oil reserves in the U.S and pay for our dependent there. that money along with 250 billion dollars of taxes annually is invested in contracts with states or private sector to build a green America rich with alternative non fossil fuel use in 12 years. So what do you think could real energy alternative become a reality for the U.S in 12 years going from a budget of oil reserve consumed annually plus 250 billion annually f…

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6022108&page=1 Two whistleblowers who were formally military intelligence operatives have come forward with claims that "hundreds of everyday Americans" had their private conversations intercepted. He said phone calls that included "phone sex and pillow talk" were often passed around the NSA facility as a sort of amusement for the operators working there. I miss my civil liberties...

We are paying £37 Billion to bail out the banks. The wunch of fat cat city big bosses took £17 Billion as bonuses last year out of the, so called, profits. Can't we demand our money back!!! "Dear fat cats - you ****ed it up! We want our £17 Billion back so that the banks can keep running without us having to bail them out. You'll just have to make do with the hundreds of thousands of pounds you get in your basic yearly paycheck. Give us back our money!"

The Post has stepped forward for Obama, and it's an unusually nuanced and insightful endorsement. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436.html Couple good quotes: It's also quite long and detailed. Check it out. I think they made some really fascinating points in there. It feels very much like my own sentiments.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems wrong to me that someone who earns $20 per hour and 50 hours per week would get taxed as much as someone who $1000 per hour and 1 hour per week. Not just that it seems unfair, it also seems like a stupid move. The result would be that people are less likely to want to work more hours than if they were taxed at their hourly rate. The only disadvantage that I can see is that it would be very difficult to find out how many hours of effort someone puts into their job.

This is the first debate I've seen with a real "WTF?" moment. Before this there was "that one" and Palin's blatant dodging of the question, but this debate had something truly awe inspiring: How much would Obama's healthcare program cost small businesses. Zero, explains Obama. "ZERO???" asks McCain. The look on his face is one of befuddlement, bemused in his realization that Obama has a pretty cool idea. Or at least, that's how I read him. He then proceeds to blink spasmodically, in a manner that reminded me of Bush in his first debate with Kerry: Of course, look at how much of an effect that had on the election...

I've been using this site for the past several months to track the polls: http://fivethirtyeight.com (538 is the number of electoral votes, btw) It was developed by a guy named Nate Silver who originally wrote a model for predicting baseball games called PECOTA. The model predicted the Rays would turn it around, going from losing 96 games to winning 90. They ended up winning 97. Who'da thunk it? PECOTA did. Now he's turned to predicting elections. His model runs 10,000 times a day, and analyzes the history of polls vs election results with a data set going back to the '50s. He predicts Obama has a 94.7% chance of winning... on election day.

I have received a call from someone asking to vote for Obama at least 10 times, usually at dinner time. I have had two visits to my door from Obama supporters. I have had one call from McCain supporters. This is worse than the Jehovah's witnesses. Enough already.

http://www.glassbooth.org John McCain shares a 75% similarity with your beliefs Barack Obama shares a 69% similarity with your beliefs Ralph Nader shares a 56% similarity with your beliefs

Had to bring this up. Christopher Buckley, son of William F. Buckley and columnist at the National Review, is endorsing Obama, essentially because Obama is smarter, more cool-headed, and has run a cleaner campaign than John McCain. He doesn't agree with Obama's overall philosophy, obviously, but he's basically saying that he trusts him not to screw things up too badly, and he doesn't trust McCain. Here's the link: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama/ Not the same as if WFB himself were saying it, but still pretty incredible. I guess it's part of an anti-anti-intellectual backlash from the right, with smart cons…

So, three weeks left. What if McCain changed running mates one week before the election? Think it would cause enough of a bounce to get more votes from those who liked McCain before Palin came along and gain him more electoral votes? Any thoughts, ideas, opinions are welcomed.

Straight from Obama's website: Obama’s Comprehensive Tax Policy Plan for America will: Cut taxes for 95 percent of workers and their families with a tax cut of $500 for workers or $1,000 for working couples. How can Obama cut taxes for 95% of workers when only 67% of them even pay taxes? Isn't that a lie? http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/1410.html http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/542.html

David Brooks is the New York Times' token moderate conservative columnist. This week he takes a look at how the Republicans have lost intellectuals. I think he's spot-on with this analysis. In fact it's gotten so stark that most young people today probably see the idea of "intellectual Republican" as being about as alien as the idea of a "conservative Democrat". http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10brooks.html?em He goes on to talk about how Palin brings out the worst in this, and gets into how the Republicans have now lost the working class as well, because of poor policy. It wraps up with this gem: line[/hr] BTW, it's not really …

Why is a U.S. Army brigade being assigned to the "Homeland"? Maybe someone somewhere fears social unrest? Martial Law on the cards maybe? http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/09/24/army/index.html

The inquiry into Alaskan governor Sarah Palin's actions has concluded, with the commission waiting for "take out the trash day" to release the results shortly after the close of Friday network news broadcasts. This was the probe into whether she acted improperly with regard to her former brother in law. She was let off the hook regarding the dismissal of the public safety commissioner, because she has the authority to fire that level of employee without cause. Full article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/us/politics/11trooper.html?em

From the debates: $3 million? Can't spend that kind of money, that's PORK! But another $300 billion bailout, some 5 orders of magnitude larger, is just fine! Anyway, $3 million "overhead projector" eh? Well... the scientists have responded: Here's a fun comparison of an actual overhead projector to the Alder Planetarium's Zeiss Mark VI star projector:: Article here: http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/1209674,adlerweb100908.article Here's the official statement released from the Alder Planetarium about McCain's remarks: http://www.adlerplanetarium.org/pressroom/pr/2008_10_08_AdlerStatement_aboutdebate.pdf courtesy BadAs…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3147266/Pakistan-facing-bankruptcy.html They have $8 billion in cash but $5 billion in outstanding liabilities, not to mention a leadership crisis. I don't think things are boding well for the 6th most populous nation on earth, which is also a nuclear power and harbors a nuclear scientist who not only knows how to build bombs from scratch but already sold secrets to Iran and North Korea.

CNN is speculating that a "perfect storm" of bad crap happening in America might be enough for Democrats to get 60 seats in the Senate, which would make them filibuster-proof and would undo the gridlock which has drug the current Congress down to record levels of disapproval: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/08/senate.election/index.html?eref=rss_topstories FiveThirtyEight, a multi-poll aggregator site specializing in predicting the outcome of elections, presently estimates that the Democrats will win 56 seats: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ I think it's unlikely that the Democrats could actually win 60 seats in the Senate, although it's certainly not …

Obama is starting to sing the right song, as McCain struggles for effective rebuttals. Just calling it like I see it.

http://www.keatingeconomics.com/ The Obama campaign has released a documentary highlighting John McCain's involvement in the Keating Five scandal. This seems unprecedented to me... has another presidential campaign ever produced a documentary about their opponent?

Interesting story on 60 Minutes tonight about the financial crisis. One thing they said that caught my ear was that some of the weird securities that involved the breaking up of mortgage-backed securities into tiny pieces and then remarketing them in creative ways were designed by "Nobel-track" physicists and mathematicians working on the side for the Wall Street firms. The complex algorithms designed by these people were supposed to reduce risk, and the managers took their word for it and leveraged to the hilt. Much of the crisis is blamed on mortgage failures, but in fact (again according to this story) 94% of all US mortgages are currently being paid on time. So…

Use for discussion on tonight's Vice Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. What did you all think of the debate? Just to sorta kick things off, what did you all think of Gwen Ifill? It hasn't aired yet as I write this, but one thing that I'll be watching for is any sign of bias. Conservatives have suggested before the debate that she's biased because she has a book about Obama coming out early next year. I don't know about that, it's a biography, not an endoresment, but I guess an argument could be made for profit motive. What do you all think? (Here's an article on that.)

Pixar is taking a bit of a PR hit over its new movie WALL-E, which apparently plots a dystopia in which everyone is obese and the planet lies in ruins. Check out this google on "pixar" and "obesity": http://www.google.com/search?q=pixar+obesity&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a Slate ran a piece on it today: Pixar's WALL-E Sends the Wrong Message And apparently this isn't just an anti-PC rant -- the movie isn't just seen as entertaining, it's seen as acceptable social commentary. And of course all of this plays right into the political scene of the day. The article pre…

People are calling their congresscritters in droves, and the near-universal outcry is "don't do it". It's interesting that we may have a situation developing where the American people are strongly opposed to something but lawmakers may end up universally agreeing that it has to be done anyway. The main objection from constituents seems to be about how the bailout protects the wealthy while their own retirement plans are drying up and their mortgages aren't getting paid. The lack of confidence in government clearly plays a role here as well, with Congress' approval rating being even lower than the President's. And current trends and sentiments about executive comp…