iNow

Cool story, bruh. Aka: One anecdote does not a trend make. I appreciate that we have different POVs on this, but stop acting like a giant douchebag, please. Your disrespect while authentic is unhelpful and unconducive to progress.

Encourage you move to codex (yes, an openAI offering but distinct from ChatGPT) or Claude code or even Hermes to correct your misconceptions I can see I needed to be more precise. There’s probably a handful of programmers still better on some coding metrics. That number becomes vanishingly smaller and smaller by the day tho

This seems like such a strange comment from someone usually so well informed about tech. AI coding has already far surpassed the capabilities of even the best coders and did so weeks ago. Probably. It’s more the agentic layer and doing proof of concepts. For example, the AI has access to funds whether BTC or a credit card on Stripe. You then show it a picture of your speeding ticket and say “take care of this” with no other guidance and… it does. “Look at my mother in laws social posts and pick a present for her birthday that’s something she would like based on comments and which is less than $40 and have it sent to her house with a card saying it’s from me.” This is already live. Even doctors are checking their work with the newer models bc they’ve become so good

We absolutely should. I just lay blame at the feet of a slow government distracted by partisanship and mango dictators instead of companies competing with each other for ever better performing models on a free and open market of ideas and development. It’s not just the US building this stuff either which amplifies my fatalism a bit On steroids and driving a Ducati. We again agree. I’m glad to see you’ve finally cut back a bit on your caffeine intake. 🥸 What did you have in mind to achieve that end? You potentially will have an ally in me once I better understand your proposal, but transparently I have no idea what steps you believe will meaningfully and sufficiently address the challenges being cited here and in related AI threads. It’s not just combining knowledge. It’s finding new previously unrealized connections and generating new ideas. AIs can also now talk to each other in a Reddit style environment and learn from each other. They can use bitcoin to purchase items and direct humans to build things (think DoorDash but a robot added the outcome to the cart). The last few models have been built using their predecessor variants and they’re becoming more mind blowing capable each time. From what I can see, the limit is not one set by hardware, but by power sources. We lack sufficient energy production and transfer to power the data centers needed (assuming China doesn’t also impose a hardware limit by invading Taiwan and refusing to sell / share their stockpiles of rare earths)

This is totally fair, and I know you’ve been concerned about declining student capabilities as a trend since long before AI (like shorter attention spans due to social media, for example) so I know that context matters. At the end of the day though the toothpaste is already out of the tube in this one. We aren’t gonna put it back in so need to learn to use it or clean it up somehow after the fact. And FWIW I’m not at all comfortable with the ever increasing layoff risk it imposes on me and my colleagues. I just try separating the personal impact from the higher level view of what’s becoming possible and how much it’s flattening the ability to achieve things even among those who lack access and resources.

It’s interesting to me how much you’re both focusing on the marketing / press release layer which is barely relevant to the viral spread and layers of organic end users discussing the new and rapidly advancing capabilities and new opportunity landscape the AIs make available. The coding capabilities are so profound that before summer is out AIs will be able to code their own improvements. That’s scarier to me than some corporate executive with an index card full of talking points and scripted video clips.

The AI gave a correct answer. The question wasn’t properly framed. What would happen if a piano fell on you? You’d b-flat

We clearly navigate different circles in our respective work lives. That’s fine but benefits are there in spades from where I sit. This is for sure true. AI has been around a long time and is far more than chatbots. I don’t disagree but I also think it’s a mistake to lay that blame primarily at the feet of the companies releasing the models. This is a viral cultural phenomenon we’re living through. It’s more than mere hype by quite a wide margin, even though we agree hype is happening. It’s the market doing that more than the companies IMO. Those who have tried to slow down and maturely think through them ethics were simply superseded and surpassed by competitors who didn’t care about those mores. The ones doing it right were entering the ring with one hand tied behind their backs and getting beaten. See also: open source model development in China. In most cases it’s not being sold at all but used for free. We agree it’s a crutch. So is my calculator and my reading glasses though. I tend to agree. They’ve focused on central planning and given authority to key technocrats to achieve very specific outcomes. There want an educated populace and even tuned their TikTok algorithm to encourage pro sociaI personal growth activities among their own populace while feeding western algorithms with digital opiums

Every mushroom is edible. Some only once, though

So you both think this is a well executed marketing campaign and AI has become a viral social movement due to great corporate advertisements? That it’s not infusing every discussion across every topic organically bc users are so blown away by their experience that they tell all their friends and evangelize it everywhere they can. Do I have that correct?

“Better” is subjective, but I’m firmly in the camp of yes. Was the internal combustion engine better than the horse drawn buggy? Was the horse drawn buggy better than the load carried on shoulders and walked across lands on foot? Is the EV better than the ICE vehicle? Not across every single metric, but “better” across and among the most important of them? Yes, 100%, but the manner by which we engage them must evolve and must account for the different sets of risks and limitations that transformation brings. It’s an impact driver instead of a screwdriver. Not applicable to every situation and requires appropriate usage, but better across the most relevant metrics in nearly every way and getting better by the minute… making Moores law look glacial. It’s a clear yes from me here too and I can think of multiple obvious supporting examples, but better explored elsewhere / separate thread IMO It’s just another tool. Whether a framing hammer or a jack hammer, the onus to use it properly resides with the user.

I'd add that we must also be careful accepting answers from search engines, and from journal articles, and from books, and from people, and podcasts, and ad infinitum ... basically from all information sources

The main counterpoint from my perspective is that even though these models CAN do amazing new physics, that doesn't mean that they WILL do amazing new physics. They will still be subject to generating slop and garbage just like any other model if the person prompting them is not sufficiently advanced or clear on their expectations (like the deeply knowledgeable physicists who drove this item and had the ability to check the models work). It's insanely cool and represents an orders of magnitude advancement in capabilities, but the core point of this thread remains intact: You have to be careful accepting answers from AI.

On AI capability development timelines, that’s like centuries

Meanwhile, vibe physics is already happening and getting published https://www.latent.space/p/lupsasca?publication_id=1084089&post_id=196292432