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A natural experiment on the effect of herpes zoster vaccination on dementia

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08800-x

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Neurotropic herpesviruses may be implicated in the development of dementia1,2,3,4,5. Moreover, vaccines may have important off-target immunological effects6,7,8,9. Here we aim to determine the effect of live-attenuated herpes zoster vaccination on the occurrence of dementia diagnoses. To provide causal as opposed to correlational evidence, we take advantage of the fact that, in Wales, eligibility for the zoster vaccine was determined on the basis of an individual’s exact date of birth. Those born before 2 September 1933 were ineligible and remained ineligible for life, whereas those born on or after 2 September 1933 were eligible for at least 1 year to receive the vaccine. Using large-scale electronic health record data, we first show that the percentage of adults who received the vaccine increased from 0.01% among patients who were merely 1 week too old to be eligible, to 47.2% among those who were just 1 week younger. Apart from this large difference in the probability of ever receiving the zoster vaccine, individuals born just 1 week before 2 September 1933 are unlikely to differ systematically from those born 1 week later. Using these comparison groups in a regression discontinuity design, we show that receiving the zoster vaccine reduced the probability of a new dementia diagnosis over a follow-up period of 7 years by 3.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.6–7.1, P = 0.019), corresponding to a 20.0% (95% CI = 6.5–33.4) relative reduction. This protective effect was stronger among women than men. We successfully confirm our findings in a different population (England and Wales’s combined population), with a different type of data (death certificates) and using an outcome (deaths with dementia as primary cause) that is closely related to dementia, but less reliant on a timely diagnosis of dementia by the healthcare system10. Through the use of a unique natural experiment, this study provides evidence of a dementia-preventing or dementia-delaying effect from zoster vaccination that is less vulnerable to confounding and bias than the existing associational evidence.

As the title of the study suggests, researchers found evidence that shingles vaccine might delay or prevent dementia. It is based on prior work which have found that herpesviruses might be implicated in certain forms of dementia. The study also found evidence that beyond the virus there might be some modulation of the immune response that could contribute to dementia protection.

34 minutes ago, CharonY said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08800-x

As the title of the study suggests, researchers found evidence that shingles vaccine might delay or prevent dementia. It is based on prior work which have found that herpesviruses might be implicated in certain forms of dementia. The study also found evidence that beyond the virus there might be some modulation of the immune response that could contribute to dementia protection.

Yes I saw this. As I am 70 and due for the second of the two-stage shingles vaccination offered at my age by the NHS, I'm glad I took up their offer. 😀     

Interesting that the chickenpox virus might play a role in dementia in later life. 

Calling my doctor for the shingles vaccine tomorrow, CharonY.

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3 hours ago, MigL said:

Calling my doctor for the shingles vaccine tomorrow, CharonY.

Sounds like a plan. But please, don't blame we if you catch autism ;)

Oh, and maybe a measles booster ...

  • Author
12 hours ago, MigL said:

Oh, and maybe a measles booster ...

You and me, brother. I do some work in that area and it ain't a pretty picture I am seeing.

I'll be happy if I don't get shingles again (once only, but that was enough) - a few months until I have the follow up injection. Time and further studies will tell us whether it provides significant 'immunisation' against dementia.

 

  • Author
9 hours ago, Ken Fabian said:

I'll be happy if I don't get shingles again (once only, but that was enough) - a few months until I have the follow up injection. Time and further studies will tell us whether it provides significant 'immunisation' against dementia.

 

Not precisely my field, but I think evidence is mounting that inflammation and associated interactions with our immune system are some of the major drivers of dementia. This comes from different areas of research and is not limited to viral infections. For example, major surgery also triggers inflammation pathways and in patients with stronger responses, the likelihood of rapid dementia onset is higher.

evidence is mounting that inflammation and associated interactions with our immune system

What if there were benefits to getting shingles. I knew someone who had multiple sclerosis and somewhere they read of a study that said people who have had shingles don’t get ms.

I cannot find such a study, but this would have been 35+ years ago. But you mention the immune system and inflammation. That is what ms is the immune system attacking the nerves of the spine. Maybe shingles is the nerves defending themselves?

What if there were benefits to getting shingles

Well, they do help shed rain from roofs, but otherwise that sounds about as fun as getting gonorrhea.

aybe shingles is the nerves defending themselves?

What you describe sounds like a histamine response, similar to why we react to allergens.

What you describe sounds like a histamine response, similar to why we react to allergen

I hypothesize that since shingles attacks the nerves the sores and pain is the nerves defense reaction.

People with multiple sclerosis have described themselves as “being electrically shocked.” I don’t know if the “shocked pain” happens in other nerve illnesses, but as this study shows there is a relationship between 2 nerve disorders in that a shingles shot prevents both shingles and dementia. But the claim I’ve only heard about is that people who get shingles don’t get ms.

I don’t know if the “shocked pain” happens in other nerve illnesses

I believe it does. I’m not very familiar with shingles outside the asphalt and terracotta varieties, but neuropathy such as often happens in diabetics comes to mind.

  • Author

I hypothesize that since shingles attacks the nerves the sores and pain is the nerves defense reaction.

People with multiple sclerosis have described themselves as “being electrically shocked.” I don’t know if the “shocked pain” happens in other nerve illnesses, but as this study shows there is a relationship between 2 nerve disorders in that a shingles shot prevents both shingles and dementia. But the claim I’ve only heard about is that people who get shingles don’t get ms.

Pain is not a defense reaction. Though defense reactions, including inflammation responses but also general injuries can cause pain signals. I am also pretty sure that your memory is wrong or folks were telling you wrong things. Most studies show that having shingles increase MS risk. There is no clear link but some assumptions include that the immune response is overreacting to viral infections of nervous tissue and start attacking it (specifically myelin, which causes MS). Other potential pathways are linkages via inflammation pathways. Other viruses, including Epstein-Barr are also linked with increased MS risk.

I seriously doubt there are studies that show protective functions.

Pain is not a defense reaction

I am also pretty sure that your memory is wrong or folks were telling you wrong things. Most studies show that having shingles increase MS risk.

I seriously doubt there are studies that show protective functions.

So you are saying pain does not result from the body fighting viruses or its own immune system? In school the Ms society told us ms was painless. But I have been told by a person that had ms there is random pain. They said it feels like you are being electrocuted.

I don’t know the credibility of “a person who gets shingles does not get ms.” You say it increases the chances. But I post this here because that is what interests me about shingles and other neurological diseases.

But maybe instead of calling shingles a cure to ms, maybe those that have recovered from shingles means they can recover from the virus that causes ms.

Again I haven’t been able to find such a study. The person who told me probably was told by a specialist in neurology. But a misunderstanding is possible.

  • Author
14 hours ago, Trurl said:

So you are saying pain does not result from the body fighting viruses or its own immune system?

Your claim was a different one:

On 4/12/2025 at 8:25 PM, Trurl said:

I hypothesize that since shingles attacks the nerves the sores and pain is the nerves defense reaction.

I.e. the claim was that the pain is the reaction, not an effect of the reaction. In some cases defense reactions can cause pain, as well as damages from the reaction as well as damages from pathogens or other external factors.

14 hours ago, Trurl said:

In school the Ms society told us ms was painless.

That is strange as pain is that it is a fairly common symptom https://my.clevelandclinic.org/departments/neurological/depts/multiple-sclerosis/ms-approaches/pain-in-ms

14 hours ago, Trurl said:

I don’t know the credibility of “a person who gets shingles does not get ms.” You say it increases the chances. But I post this here because that is what interests me about shingles and other neurological diseases.

It is not credible. Here is a news article on the paper I had in mind https://www.reuters.com/article/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/multiple-sclerosis-linked-to-shingles-idUSTRE75F6R9/

14 hours ago, Trurl said:

But maybe instead of calling shingles a cure to ms, maybe those that have recovered from shingles means they can recover from the virus that causes ms.

Again, as the likelihood increases after infection, the recovery hypothesis does not make a lot of sense. But more importantly, MS is not associated with an pathogen per se (with one possible exception*). Rather, a hallmark of the disease is that our own immune system decided to attack myelin, a structure that surrounds parts of our neurons. IOW it is an autoimmune disease. The challenge is that for autoimmune diseases in general we really do not know how these exactly work. Generally speaking things like chronic inflammation but also acute infection increase the likelihood that our immune system starts damaging our body. The link to viruses here is the hypothesis is that once you got some sort of infection, especially after a sever one, your immune system can be whacked a bit out of balance and it may accidentally misidentify parts of our body as foreign entities. Again, getting an infection increases your risk.

* I will add one possible link to viral infections which has one piece of compelling evidence, though I am not yet 100% convinced that it is the right mechanism. The study I am referencing to is an epidemiological study which found a much higher risk (some 30-fold) for MS for folks infected with the Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV). This likelihood is much higher than the link to shingles. However there are two challenges. The first is that almost everyone (90%) of folks are infected with EBV. The authors of the article did a clever design study to be able to follow the few uninfected folks and also look at it longitudinally (i.e. tracking those that were first EBV free and then got infected later in time). Still, the issue with such study design is that there could be statistically anomalies and that the study would be hard to reproduce in that forward. Still, the evidence is very interesting, especially given the huge effect size. The second part is that while there are general hypotheses, the precise mechanism remains elusive. There is an idea to do an empirical experiment. As EBV vaccines are in development, it might be possible in the future to just compare MS rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated folks which could provide more insights into the link. As another sidenote, I do believe to recall that folks with MS also tend to be unvaccinated folks. This again, contributes somewhat to the evidence that infections could be a contributor to MS. But as I have noted at the beginning, the evidence doesn't suggest that specific viruses are causative agents as such. It has numerous contributors, and potentially involves infection, but also general inflammation (which in turn is related to a host of factors, including diet, lifestyle etc.), and their respective interplay with the immune system and sprinkled with some potential genetic dispositions.

Though to bring it back to OP, if you want lower MS risk, shingles vaccine might help, if only a tiny bit.

Thanks CharonY for the above and beyond explanation 👍

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