Over 95% of this year’s US planned electric capacity is zero-carbon

[swansont]

“For the first time since the mid-20th century, over 95 percent of this year’s planned new electric-generating capacity in the United States is zero-carbon.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/04/11/the-next-phase-of-electricity-decarbonization-planned-power-capacity-is-nearly-all-zero-carbon/

[iNow]

The inflation reduction act is the single largest investment in addressing climate change ever across all of human history… so far… and dividends are beginning already 

https://www.epi.org/blog/the-inflation-reduction-act-finally-gave-the-u-s-a-real-climate-change-policy/

[MigL]

2 hours ago, iNow said:

the single largest investment in addressing climate change

It is not the size that is revolutionary, rather the approach used.
The American Government has chosen to reward industry for switching to low carbon emission processes.
Most other country's Governments ( our PM in Canada also ) have chosen the stick approach, subjecting small industry to punishing carbon taxes, which keeps them from making the changes to low carbon processes, and the vicious cycle eventually drives them out of business.
It is this far-sighted thinking that allows the American economy to perform much better than ours.

[CharonY]

52 minutes ago, MigL said:

It is this far-sighted thinking that allows the American economy to perform much better than ours.

I agree to some degree. It is a bit of a pity that ultimately the conservative plan of the Harper government ultimately won out and that others did not come up with a better plan. There have been some federal initiatives, but certainly not such ambitious one as Biden's and given the tenuous relationship between Provinces and Feds, I suspect it is difficult to create effective frameworks at scale. 

But it would be a bit unfair to say that Canada is only using stick- the carrot is there, but it is not that big and much seems to be based on tax credits in Canada (though not certain, perhaps I am underestimating the scope). However, the existing subsidies in Canada for green energy have been criticized as corporate welfare. How effective these are is not quite clear to me, especially as there is massive political infighting between provinces and feds, and with at least some performative pro-oil and gas dance in certain provinces. I also would add that some provinces as well as states have separate carbon pricing initiatives, so it is not quite as straightforward.

But I would say is that in Canada, pretty much regardless who is in power, far-sightedness does not seem to be the main strategy. And much of the fight is outright silly and fraught with targeted amnesia.

 

[exchemist]

4 hours ago, CharonY said:

I agree to some degree. It is a bit of a pity that ultimately the conservative plan of the Harper government ultimately won out and that others did not come up with a better plan. There have been some federal initiatives, but certainly not such ambitious one as Biden's and given the tenuous relationship between Provinces and Feds, I suspect it is difficult to create effective frameworks at scale. 

But it would be a bit unfair to say that Canada is only using stick- the carrot is there, but it is not that big and much seems to be based on tax credits in Canada (though not certain, perhaps I am underestimating the scope). However, the existing subsidies in Canada for green energy have been criticized as corporate welfare. How effective these are is not quite clear to me, especially as there is massive political infighting between provinces and feds, and with at least some performative pro-oil and gas dance in certain provinces. I also would add that some provinces as well as states have separate carbon pricing initiatives, so it is not quite as straightforward.

But I would say is that in Canada, pretty much regardless who is in power, far-sightedness does not seem to be the main strategy. And much of the fight is outright silly and fraught with targeted amnesia.

 

I suspect a large part of the Biden strategy is to avoid the USA becoming too reliant on China for all its low carbon technology, which is a clear risk the way things have been going recently, whether it be the current glut of Chinese solar panels (I read that some people in continental Europe are even using them for fencing panels!) or their dominance in purifying lithium for batteries.

No doubt the malevolent idiot Trump will tear all that up on principle (i.e. because it was Biden's idea) if he returns to power, even though independence from China is one of the things he talks about. 

[iNow]

8 hours ago, MigL said:

It is this far-sighted thinking that allows the American economy to perform much better than ours.

Also the massive stimulus programs deployed during Covid to ensure recovery more quickly after vaccines were finally developed and released helped quite a bit. 

[MigL]

We had a package during COVID also.
Our Government paid people $2000 Can per month to stay home.
Now, our economy is still struggling to recover, because small business can't find people to work, and the Government has a crap-load of debt that is still fueling inflation.

But it's not like you guys don't have your problems.
No doubt, if D Trump manages to get re-elected President, he'll be telling everyone how well the economy is doing under HIS Presidency.

[CharonY]

26 minutes ago, MigL said:

Our Government paid people $2000 Can per month to stay home. Now, our economy is still struggling to recover, because small business can't find people to work, and the Government has a crap-load of debt that is still fueling inflation.

I believe other countries, including the US had similar initiatives. Also the benefits were for a total of something like 7 months, IIRC, so it would be surprising to have long-term impact on employment several years later. There are a range of issues why folks cannot find workers, and we actually see a reflection of it in academia, but it certainly was not due to CERB. There is a general change coming (not all of it good) and I think the older generation (up and including mine) is going to be caught up in it. 

[MigL]

Quite a few businesses that rely on min wage employees are still having difficulty finding people to work.
I know of restaurants that have since closed on Monday and Tuesday, as well as for lunch, as they need available staff for busy weekend evenings.
I remember Tim Horton's coffee shops closing in the evening for lack of staff, for about a year after lockdown ended; it has since gone back to normal.
Most bars stay open till 11 pm, and only  on Thurs/Fri/Sat till midnight, whereas it used to be 2 am closing.
Fast food places, like McD, used to be staffed by young people after school/evening/weekend, now I see a majority of older retired people who used to only do weekdays previously.

While CERB is not the cause, it is making the 'change' worse.

I myself remember going to local farms, when I was about 12 to 15, to pick fruit like strawberries, cherries, peaches, etc.
No 'self respecting' teenager will do that now, and the Government has to subsidize foreign workers ( Mexicans, Jamaicans, etc ) to help farmers pick their fruit. Is the Government going to have to subsidize foreign workers to work in fast food restaurants and bars also ?
There was once a 'stigma' associated with handouts ( welfare, panhandling, etc ), now it is expected, as witnessed by the large numbers of young panhandlers. Handouts ( like CERB should be there for people who cannot take care of themselves, for whatever reason; not for people who don't want to take care of themselves.
And Ontario's min wage is $16.55 ( going to $17.20 in October ); of course that is in our 3/4 dollars.

I'm starting to get the impression that 'somewhere in the Americas' is actually ( or, used to be )  in Canada, as you seem to know a lot of stuff about Canada most Americans would not. Not that that's a bad thing; arrogant Americans should know more about us 🙂 .

[CharonY]

24 minutes ago, MigL said:

While CERB is not the cause, it is making the 'change' worse

I think you are looking at the wrong cause- the combination of rising cost of living plus the pandemic pause has caused a lot of folks to re-evaluate their job situation. Quite a few people have quite (at least for a while) and there is significant amount of folks who are looking for other (better) jobs. Following the the pandemic effect, there was a rapid drop in unemployment, continuing a trend start around 2010 and is at its lowest since the 90s.

So in that regard it is small wonder that badly paid position are hard to fill. This effect is also seen in sectors such as academia where postdocs were easy to get in the past, but now it is difficult. Those folks are not typically CERB recipients, either. So the handout is really a narrative without really any evidence (and ignoring much stronger factors).

I will also add that 

24 minutes ago, MigL said:

No 'self respecting' teenager will do that now, and the Government has to subsidize foreign workers ( Mexicans, Jamaicans, etc ) to help farmers pick their fruit. Is the Government going to have to subsidize foreign workers to work in fast food restaurants and bars also ?

I am also teetering at getting annoyed by younglings, which basically just means that I am getting old. But what I have been hearing from students is that increased cost of living basically means that such work is not necessarily beneath them (though for the more urbanized students it might be), but that they would not do it for minimum wage. The argument is that given the current cost of living, other work is a better use of their time. There is simply not a huge segment of folks that would like to take minimum wage jobs (regardless of CERB or not) and for quite some time this has been the domain of immigrants almost everywhere in the world. But with Canada's increase in cost of living, and the rising resentment against immigration (some more, some less justified), this results in a combination of unfilled lower-paid jobs but also record employment rates.

I will also add yet another issue to the pile: service jobs are going to be hit the hardest. Generally speaking, Canada has a productivity problem, but certain jobs that are hard to automate, such as faculty but also especially small restaurants, always had the challenge of disproportionately rising salaries. This is one of the reasons why many small restaurants are family operations, for example. With increasing outward pressure (high food and housing prices), these business are unable to keep up with salary demands.

 

24 minutes ago, MigL said:

I'm starting to get the impression that 'somewhere in the Americas' is actually ( or, used to be )  in Canada, as you seem to know a lot of stuff about Canada most Americans would not. Not that that's a bad thing; arrogant Americans should know more about us 🙂 .

You are quite correct. Been in Canada for quite a while- I have been living and working in quite a few countries by now. Also, I have never been an American. I just lived there for a while. And I often do find it curious, if unsurprising, if Americans and Canadians share similar arguments, even with different systems (I guess the cultural impact of USA shows).

[Ken Fabian]

Seems like a tipping point on relative costs has been crossed. The economics of renewables has never been better and that has to be the case for massive growth of it to be possible as a policy. Not so much deep, long planning as taking advantage of the extraordinary cost reductions for RE; even one decade earlier and the IRA would not have been possible.

I think carbon pricing can only work if there are available alternatives for energy companies to invest in that are approaching cost parity - which is only recently the case for RE for much of the world and is more difficult for a nation with extreme winters like Canada to take advantage of. More long connectors to the USA to take advantage of cheap solar out of season? More wind and hydro? More nuclear? But sticking with fossil fuels is not a good option.