CharonY

I am not sure that most would understand- even if they understand the mechanism, they might not feel that they relate to their situation and their worries. At least not without educating folks regarding the links. Simpler (untrue) stories resonate more with folks. For example, for many folks struggling with money there is a simple narrative that has worked almost every time: - You are struggling because the elites are screwing you. - They steal your money and divert the money that is yours to [undeserving group] - The elites are also dissolving the fabric of our society by promoting [feminism, LGBTQ issues, anything that you don't like or are at least suspicious about] - I will fight for you against the elites by and punish the elites and [undeserving group]. Highlight the punishing part. Sharing and intensifying fears of folks validates them and they feel seen. It doesn't help if folks say, look, it isn't immigrants, it is weak unions. That is too abstract. A horde of brown people stealing their money, food and women? Now that is tangible. I am sorry to say, but it seems that best target that folks can successfully cater to with minima effort is: The only prerequisite is that you have no shame and are willing to lie. And that does not seem to be much of a burden nowadays.

That is the point, though. Folks with influence and money have long realized that instead of playing the game, it is far more effective to play the system and make the rules. Media used to have a sort of check on it (but the Murdoch empire also has shown how vulnerable traditional media is). However this check relies on two things: One, the quality of reporting with the intent to force accountability and two, having the electorate actually act on this information. Both mechanisms have been successfully eroded, not for the first time in modern history. So you can just claim things. As we have discussed already the last time around, traditional norms have virtually vanished and we have not created any new structures to adapt. So folks either went all in (as the GOP) into an accountability-free space where you can just say whatever you think folks like. Even if you are directly responsible for deaths due to your misinformation, you can just blame some random things except yourself. Alternatively, you can go the traditional route, try to garner the reasonable populace and think that this is enough. Rater unfortunately that does not seem like a winning strategy, whereas the free-wheeling accountability-free space is a scary winner. They did and it made little inroads. As I said, that would still be the assumption that you can reason things out. I have worked through the pandemic with a broadish segment of the population and the level of things they believe you cannot address in a handful of meetings. Not even in many. And once you make inroads, others have invented 200 new conspiracy theories. It is a losing proposition in the long run as it takes time, training and effort to discuss facts. Lying is effortless and every idiot is doing it. Also to add, it is almost impossible to talk policy over feels. If folks think their economic issue is because of immigration and that mass deportation magically will solve it, discussing policies that would actually help them will not register with the masses. You can convince individuals, if you take the time, but that won't be enough to sway elections. And the alternative is basically stoking their fears and then offer cheap (and nonsensical) solution.

The downside to that is that I believe NPR listeners skews to the older age bracket. I.e. young folks, the traditional drivers for societal change are more likely getting more misinformed (not just uninformed). Just recently there was a Leger poll in Canada, suggesting that the largest group doubting the holocaust are in the youngest segment. Nah, don't you worry. The pathogen does not have to be something prehistoric. We just stop vaccinating and enjoy all the diseases we had 50ish years ago. You'll make a killing selling iron lungs, I tell ya.

I suspect as much, but I was hoping for someone to tell me I am wrong. We are doomed, aren't we?

I do wonder how much weight traditional media still have, especially among the younger electorate.

It looks like that. You need narratives, not policies. The simpler the better. As some have put it: Trump's message was clear. Bad people want to do bad stuff to you. I make all better for you. This translates to the average voter to a clear message. Whereas Harris had details and numbers and stuff and that point they suddenly do not understand what she stands for. Also important: being vague. If you are specific folks on the internet hammer you on it (either legitimately or just by spreading misinformation) and folks repeating the nonsense for some reasons feel smug about it. Be vague and no one can meme you (or whatever young people say). Having a concept of a plan is apparently a genius thing.

And folks are really not very good in attributing the economic situation to the right folks. I think the concept of time eludes a lot if people.

The way I describe them are dopamine machines. If folks feel bored, anxious or just not entertained, their reflex is to go to the device (if they are not already on it) and basically find something that makes them feel better. It is a constant distraction and they are barely able to sit through boredom in order to get a job done. It saps a lot, if not all of the mental capacity of folks and also colors their expectation of training and learning. The fact that many of the younger generation are simply not equipped to learn anymore (as I mentioned in another thread) is the biggest issue as that limits potential remedies. Edit: A couple of articles suggest that one big issue is that the GOP was successful because they played heavily on predominantly white identity politics, whereas Dems tried to avoid identity and tried to focus on policies.

This is just boring old dogwhistling, isn't it? Oh no, it is not xenophobia, it is just economic/immigration concerns. It just so happens that folks evoke fears of replacement murder, rape and stealing the women. One has to be oh so careful not to upset the folks that call others derogatory terms on a routine basis. Also I forgot to add that Trump himself is also a convicted rapists, suggesting a fair amount of projection. But maybe that is what Harris should have done. Demonize some group (but turn around and play nice with them when they are around). Air grievances about how people feel about the current situation and instead of solutions should blame the other party. While there might not even be a need to lie, the point is to induce fear and hatred. After all, it seems to be a winning strategy even if the rest is pretty much brain dead.

Honestly, I think that even if they did more, their influence is largely gone (except for a smallish segment of the population). I suspect that many traditional political entities across the world might be losing ground, because they still assume that certain principles, including the role of media, is still valid. Meanwhile, my students quote TikTok as scientific sources. If that is any indication, the only thing that moves the needle is clickbait. The more outrageous, the better.

Algorithms and lack of critical thinking have changed information processing, certainly in the young and also in the older folks. Heck, any policy that the Trump campaign put out were quickly explained to be somewhere between silly and harmful (e.g. replacing income tax with tariffs). It is clear that folks do not actually care about information anymore. Perhaps ironically we are using technology to validate our feelings (regardless how detached from reality they might be)and I am afraid that this is a trend that we are unable to reverse. The worst thing is that I see it even (or especially) in young, educated folks, which points at an overall worse trend.

I mean, technically they could have taken some lessons from the more successful playbooks. They could have lied and fearmongered more. They could have run a campaign detached from reality and claim that they never said that when challenged. Timeline might have been a bit too tight, but we learned that folks actually do not have permanent memory. This turns out to be one of the more depressing things I have read today.

So now please provide literature (note that in biology the defintion is more narrow for sex as it needs to accomodate all forms of sexual reproduction, not only humans or mammals) that sex and gender are always aligned.

Please provide the current scientific definition of sex and gender before proceeding.

Shithole countries, poisoning our blood, they are rapists and murders, eatingour pets. Yes sure guilty by association. With his own mouth that is.

That is the crazy bit, isn't it? Folks say and support outright racist and sexist things and then folks come in and then somehow interpret it differently. They do not even need to spin it. And still folks still pretend that the words coming out of their mouths were not actually the words being said. Now, given the way things go, I suspect that it is only a matter of time where folks dispense even with this thin veneer of decency and just outright "say it as it is" as they realize that there is no penalty for doing so anymore. We are rapidly running out of masks.

Also, folks seem to get less and less informed. There is a whole of related arrays of issues, but is that people apparently are not able to evaluate or retain information. Idiocracy in action, in fact. Case in point, all the GOP folks who after Jan 6 said that Trump was done, should never be close to an office and Vance compared him literally to Hitler. Plus his own Chief of Staff. I suspect Orwell would find things tad ridiculous at this point.

Good points, though I would add that in parts of eastern Europe the religious influence is there (and somehow weirdly aligned with Russian outlooks) in terms of gender issues. According to some of my female (and obviously highly competent) colleagues various degrees of "never" and "told you so".

That is unfortunately the big issue for me. The first term was built laziness and greed and things moved along even against his wishes. For example, they provided support to Puerto Rico after delays, despite he being against it (incredible that folks already seemed to have forgotten that). It was only when there was a real challenge that things fell apart really dramatically during COVID-19 (again, no idea how folks keep forgetting that). This time around, folks around him realized that they can undermine the checks and balances to their advantage and if they are even moderately competent, they may achieve that.

I think what is ultimately coming true is a reckoning that many of our social agreements in democratic systems have become undone. Traditional parties still operate under assumptions such as that democracy is fundamentally valued, or that not adhering to social norms (e.g. overt rather than covert racism/sexism/authoritarianism/criminal behaviour etc.) is going to be punished by voters. I feel (and it comes from interacting with young academics a fair bit) there is a social change incoming, at a different rate and shape than we might be aware of. As someone has posted, idiocracy in action. Except at some point we will be the idiots.

The deportation was ever a deception. It was built around the non-existing surge of criminal immigrants. What is likely going to happen is aggressive ICE enforcement as under his previous presidency, more aggressive policing of the borders and similar "virtue signaling" efforts. But it is not a thing he really cares about beyond vague ideological aspects. There will be a number of civil rights issue by entangling law enforcement, border security, immigration and potentially the military. Canada is currently limiting (or re-aligning) immigration. And real estate is very expensive in the more populated areas.

No, they are not Trump clones. You are giving him way too much credit. Far-right sentiments have been on the rise already before Trump and there are a couple that are not centrist. They may have started out on the right but quite a few have descended into more than a bit of fascism lately. The AfD in Germany, for example has folks in the leadership who are demonstrably fascists (as in validated by courts). This has always been the deception and you are falling for it. Trump is not the works manifestation of this sentiment, just a symptom. Overtly it is always about things that are agreeable, such as the economy, or making lives better. The underlying sentiment is that the others are somehow making things worse and "poisoning our blood". They are not even trying to make things better. They just want it make worse for marginalized groups and therefore make the appearance that they are doing something. Meanwhile, they enrich themselves only. In many cases you cannot do that. But as I said, you can enact laws against folks without stated protection (e.g. transgender folks). You can and they do enact censorship and they reduce protections that limit discrimination against folks with darker skin. You do not need a law force people to discriminate. The sad truth is that without protection, folks do it on their own. Again Trump is not the cause, just a sad symptom. Which is helped by the inability of our species to remember stuff it seems. Note the absence of COVID-19 in everyone's mind despite its impact on all the elements (i.e., economy, inflation, immigration, etc.). This includes the disastrous handling of the pandemic itself. But if deaths don't convince anyone, I don't know what does. Probably some stupid tiktok dance or whatever.

This is the sentiment I have been seeing. There will be some research on this, and my gut feeling is that it will be borne true. Doubly so for a woman of colour. My suspicion is that the data will show lower support among white women for Harris than for either Biden or Clinton. And this under the looming threat of Dobbs. Ultimately, it shows again the power of identity politics over everything else.

-Mencken. Again. You are wrong about the far-right parties in Europe, they are extremists without question and are flirting with among other things deporting citizens with incorrect values. These are clearly unconstitutional, but the fact that they are discussing it amongst themselves (it was revealed by undercover journalists) tells you all you need to known. Objections to Abortion and LGBTQ issues are superficial elements related to virtue signaling your right credentials and it is being done in in Europe (and also Canada) to various degrees. You will note that during the election the GOP was actually not going hard on those as they were not winning issues. It was mostly used to make fun of transgender folks and related policies, though some folks (e.g. Musk) clearly had a more personal stance than others. Plus Hungary has authoritarian rule for some time and it might be worthwhile to look into their rhetoric and policies (e.g. ending recognition of transgenderism, censoring of LGBTQ positive contents in book and media and so on). While I am not saying that I have a thorough understanding of the political right in Europe, I think that your assumptions might need some revisions. I tend to believe that the assumption of decency and civility was a veneer to keep society aligned to some degree- if only strenuously. Once the idea arose that we can move beyond that and really be inclusive to everyone set out a number of alarm bells that have not stopped ringing since then. There was a weird shift in American politics, which could be followed in real-time on Fox News once Obama was elected and folks declared that the USA has become a post-racial nation. There will be a lot of discussions of what went wrong, but honestly at the root it is the people and the fact that we do not have a shared reality to align things anymore.

Europe needs to step up, which they likely won't. Especialy with pro-Russian right wingers waiting. Also above I forgot to rant about sexism. We are a bunch of dum dums. That was what we discussed a few times. I feel that appealing to moderates has not been a great strategy. And she might even lose the popular vote. The way folks perceive and feel about things has changed and what we perceive as the norm is gone.