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Duda Jarek

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  1. Sure, Iran managed to ban, but if the exponential trend continues, they grow in money, power, influence - making defense more and more difficult. I have no idea on what percentage of world energy consuption cryptocurrencies could finally stabilize at?
  2. Sure, as you mention, these ways have various costs based on physical limitations - market should stabilize on the cheapest ways up to profitability level, which grows with gold price. The problem is that potentially infinite number of various cryptocurrencies do not have such physical limitations - hence can grow to consume just all available resources ... ... unless being banned like https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/26/iran-bans-bitcoin-mining-as-its-cities-suffer-blackouts.html
  3. Sure electricity cost is lower, but total cost (including e.g. hardware) market is willing to pay for $100 banknote is ~$99 ... giving the miner/investor $1 profit, at $99 cost for civilization ... plus e.g. these $37-49 "in health and climate damage" externalities. Sure mining of gold/silver also has externalities - which should be included in evaluation of such investement, compensated e.g. through taxes to those who pay them ... but 1) In contrast to massive hashing, our civilization needs these metals e.g. to make electronics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold#Electronics
  4. As suggested, I have searched for "BTC cost of mining", getting https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-25/bitcoin-s-btc-cost-to-society-is-impossible-to-ignore These are additional externalities, one type of many completely ignored by miners. Your estimation seems to correspond to energy cost only, but even miners themselves have more costs - especially hardware (which will not satisfy other utility, which manufacturer did not produced other electronics), also e.g. human costs and many others. The rules of market say that total amortized costs paid by investors/mi
  5. Sure, maintaining Bitcoin's last 6 year 2x growth/year for the next 6 years is hopefully impossible (but looks like many speculators believe it will happen). But there are thousands of cryptocurrencies, also "evolving" to consume succeeding resources (e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/may/26/new-cryptocurrency-chia-blamed-for-hard-drive-shortages ) ... So what percentage of world resources could be stable attractor for crypto consumption - somehow balancing observed pursue for individual gains? Balancing with what?
  6. The general issue is that we don't have "mind of a civilization wanting the best for it" ... but rather individuals pursuing individual gains. E.g. if getting opportunity to get $100 banknote by burning $99 worth resources (e.g. through calculating hashes), we can see individuals massively do it - for $1 individual profit, no matter it means $99 resource loss for civilization.
  7. Many countries have low fertility problem of decreasing (TFR<2.1) and aging population ... beside developing countries - which will reduce fertility when most children start surviving to become an adult, also with education. Sure food production might become a huge problem due to climate change ... another huge problem is drinking water e.g. https://www.unicef.org/stories/water-and-climate-change-10-things-you-should-know ps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate : https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08230 :
  8. Population growth seems prevented by just children survivability, improved live quality - see e.g. some Hans Rosling talks like Exponentially growing additional waste makes fight with climate change even more hopeless ... 1 individual can easily exceed a million times required consumption here - it doesn't matter that 99% of population care and save resources, if 0.001-th percentile can saturate close to 100% of world resource usage.
  9. What do you mean? People buy hardware and use energy just to get money (for otherwise meaningless activity) ... until reaching profitability level, like burning $99 worth resources to get $100 banknote. In contrast, mining other resources like gold is not otherwise meaningless ( https://www.mecmining.com.au/top-5-uses-of-gold-one-of-the-worlds-most-coveted-metals/ ). But most importantly it is limited - in contrast to unlimited number of cryptocurrencies they can create, it is impossible to maintain exponential growth of gold mining ... while cryptocurrencies can use literally
  10. Exactly - pathological mechanisms can develop when society no longer needs to focus on survival - perfect connection, thanks! Thousands, hundreds of years ago most of society had to focus on crucial activities like food production. With efficiency growth, now nearly nobody cares about food producers minorities, leaving place for growth of various activities with questionable effects for well being, survival of our civilization. Crypto is the next level - literally giving a person $100 banknote for burning $99 worth of resources - leading to exponentially growing movement of reso
  11. Regarding Fermi paradox, naive estimations suggest that statistically lots of civilizations should develop in the Universe ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation , maybe overestimated), the Universe has ~13.8 billion years, so older civilizations should differ by millions, thousands of years - be super advances ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale ) ... But we don't see any, suggesting e.g. that civilizations finally die - it would be valuable to try to understand the reasons, e.g. to try to prevent such destiny for ours if possible (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D
  12. Let me remind that this thread is not supposed to be about bitcoin, but about Fermi paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature_of_intelligent_life_to_destroy_itself Bitcoin was only example of such positive feedback mechanism leading to exponential growth - such that if continuing last 6 year trend to next 6 years, would reach half of world energy production, what some might find disturbing. There are already thousands of cryptocurrencies, and it is not that humans have to be smarter or more reasonable than such hypothetical civilizations, but we are n
  13. There is strong positive feedback: the higher the price, the more people are focused, it becomes profitable to mine on a growing percentage of electronics, chip manufacturers have growing incentive to switch to miner production, the higher influence this society has ... Sure it is bounded by 100% of world energy production - so definitely in 7 years it will have to slow down, at most saturating to 100%. But is 100% of world resources for cryptominig a reasonable level? If not, on which lower level it could stabilize itself? Beside 100% boundary, what are other mechanisms to slow
  14. Bitcoin energy consumption below from https://cbeci.org/, nearly exactly 2x growth per year - in 6 years should grow for 1% to ~60% of world energy production. Sure, I believe that for some calculating hashes might be the highest value of life, but if indeed approaching 100% of civilization resources, it might mean its end (?) Are there strong enough mechanisms to balance this positive feedback on some reasonable level? If not, how strong scenario is it for Fermi paradox?
  15. Imagine civilization gets a positive feedback mechanism for wasting resources, like cryptocurrencies: “one gets $100 banknote if burning $99 worth resources”, leading to exponential growth of waste at individual gains. We can observe exponential growth of their energy consumption, worsening shortages of electronics, simultaneously these cult-like societies are growing in power/influence, can buy politicians (e.g. El Salvador) … further taking control of chip manufacturers and power plants, in a few years growing to 50%, 90%, 99% of world energy production? Can such positive feedback
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