jackson33

the reasons for action, are just that. even the loyal opposition, as they changed from national concerns to political, will admit the UN violations were instrumental. the war then which, was very short and successfully now history. the problems came as a power gap consumed the minds of several factions, including militant factions. these entities are eying one element *oil* and the power it could provide. the total lack of concern for there own followers in many cases and the disregard for human life, tells me this philosophy will not stop in Iraq. as mentioned we are also obligated to complete the rebuilding of a governing, to an enforceable level. like it or not, the area *mid-east* is subject in total to turmoil. not just Iraq if this policy fails. if this were to happen, Saudi Arabia is in line for the same thing, to say nothing of Israel. i do not like using the *domino theory*, but the idea of a radical Islamic rule in much of the world is a real possibility. although, my concern is not for the US, yet, many European Nations are subject to no less than what is occurring in Iraq today. as the US did, with Germany in the 30's, we have done with the issue of radical Islam, over many decades. we do not all speak German or check our neighborhood for the Jewish now. in the future i hope, women can maintain independence (equality with males), my laws are not replaced by the Koran, i am allowed to speak English and by all means have the right to practice whatever religion i so desire. if you feel this is an unjust assessment, i suggest you visit the nearest Mask, Bible in hand and take your wife. it won't work and its that way, in the US today.... point; look at the total problem, not some political view of some to enhance some desire for power.

i find it hard to understand, leaving a person like Saddam and certainly his two sons, in power to do what they were known to have done for any stability factor. this is like saying Hitler, should have been left alone since he controled the Jews. Saddam, could have prevented the actions, for YEARS, simply by letting the UN inspectors in to verify, what you say..." no WMD..." the US took actions to force compliance to the United Nations demands. not to find WMD. possibly to make sure, but not the sole concern.

POM; IMO, your problems lays in the natural forces of the Capitalist system. this, since the industrial revolution has seen all your suggesting, many times. the system reacts very quickly, since to solve any real problem will generate real profit. there is nothing wrong with profit, the desire constantly to do something easier and better the ultimate goal. the predictions made over the years are to numerous to go into, but as some went on to be true, the solution were effected the problem never happened.

of course it does; ethanol the obvious and efficiency the hidden factor. engines designed in the 40's to 60's required four or five times the fuel to do what can be today. cars are running on refined garbage and a number of things today. hybrids are in an infancy state and with time could be made to operate with very little fossil fuel. the need for these things, have only recently been addressed, motives to do so being too costly on the consumer. if all thats already been done had not been, then i would agree peak is near, but it has and very much part of what i feel is never considered.

the Taliban, or ruling force in Afghanistan in 2001, were protecting as well as encouraging OBL and his cohort's. the country itself was under the extreme versions of Islamic Law and theological control. prior to efforts to topple this solid dictatorial rule, the Bush administration offered an out, simply telling the leaders to turn over OBL and his immediate advisor's. this offer was ignored, with the usual verbiage to talk, the last days before emanate actions. like it or not, the US has a set policy in that negotiation with terrorist is not a viable solution. this policy is set in the history of what has happened with such efforts to appease an advisory. as with No. Korea, Japan and even the USSR, the problems will continue or acts that create the problems are maintained during such talks. i don't think the US, is in line for a dirty bomb or any major event in the near future, however this is because of current policy. what i think the government fears as i do, is the use of WMD, against Israel or even a people with in the Islamic community. this will lead to many treaty obligations, which WILL be enforced by any US government. terror as programed by the OBL types is directed at the economy. even they realize their limitations to effect any particular security, or if you prefer take over another viable nation. there efforts in Iraq, are directed at this policy of the US and to undermine the will of peoples, in the world. the US, with its single major problem of political power, is giving a false image, by a relatively small portion of the total.

everything in theory, has a peak. i contend to know what this peak is, assuming the usage is known (in the case of oil, also not sure) the unknown factor, availability has simply got to be understood. the earths crust, generally 30 to 50 mile thick or deep, has formed from about earth age a billion yo, to what it is now. whats in this tremendous space is at best theory to those that speculate. we are as mentioned already finding oil by test, down to 5 miles deep. we have every reason to speculate very little lived, except micro life, to a point where this crust formation was 3 miles deep. additionally i have suggested production, assuming pumping of the crude, is based on the needs and available equipment. we refine at about 90% capacity and availability of crude runs at 100%. efficiency of equipment around the world, is not all that great. many places use old and very inefficient methods to pump. running at full efficiency and will all available resources to do so, my GUESS, would be the total output could be 50% over the worlds ability to use, which makes no sense, for other reasons i have suggested. someone mentioned copper, back up the thread; copper has two primary uses, being coinage and electrical components. a US nickel is 75% copper and so on, and of course wire is currently all copper. Alloy, a combination of elements to produce a metal, could eliminate all needs for copper or for that matter any metallic product. Aluminum is 8% of the total crust make up. Silicon and oxygen the only items greater. the analogize this, this would be the total surface of the planet a mile deep plus, is aluminum. we could never use this item and can substitute alone for all coppers current uses. it actually has in the past, but fell short of coppers ability to carry current efficiently. Magnesium, the major use for engines today was a by product not long ago in the production of salt. this a small example where technology changes the face of everything. magnesium is also an element, but easiest to use the salt by product. copper is mined from areas which are up to 80% in copper. Arizona has several mines, still not active from earlier price reductions and the cost to mine in the US. my point is copper mention, is the idea that industry and management demand efficiency. this means profits, which makes things seem other than what they are. importing oil, copper products are simply cheaper than producing with in the US. the markets, speculators and investors that will never take delivery, add to the cost of the raw material. oil is said to be $20 a barrel and copper about 25 cents to its current 3.25/pd price friday...

General Reid, takes his orders from the commander in chief Polosi and maybe her boss Madam Clinton. there is no question the party itself is full 08 election mode and placing their entire future on defeat of our troops in Iraq. any pretense of "support for the troops" has been forfeited on behalf of the fringe elements the leaders would seem to have chosen to follow.

Luke; there is an underlying motive in what is being attacked through "peak" and it goes to the heart of the issue. peak coal, this oil and the idea we are facing a catastrophic event, all being in the next 20 years are taking on a GW issue and the comments of Mr. Gore. it would be much easier to argue the GW issue per any one topic and i think beneficial to POM if this is the point. peak anything, like it or not requires a firm knowledge of what has not yet come or in fact known today. POM and the coal peak was an obvious error in choice of topics, where oil seems to have some value. i might add very long, post, with primarily the same information, from like minded sources, to me takes on this "i am the" attitude, pounding the table and with no direct rebuttal to an argument. in your post above; i have addressed why surplus productions of products which are oil based is neither practical or cost/efficient to the producer. any oil based product, starts to breakdown from the day produced. likewise efficiency is reduced as time goes by. additionally, pertaining to gasoline or petrol, the limits of the products are based on refinery capacity, not the available crude to produce the products. this gets into shipping, transferring and even distribution problems. an example would be area shortages, where every one simply tries to top off their little gas tanks, in a short period. then add the stations with there larger tanks, the farmers with tanks and problems will occur. having said all this, i do oppose a valid topic issue, being tanked for what would seem to be personal reasons. i also understand why, GW or capitalism are not directly address by some as there are no certainties such as an eventual possibility that something may or may not be.

Polosi, or the democratic party is playing an old hold card, to add an additional seat for her party. additionally in an effort to enhance her parties 2008 changes, many arguable bills have passed the house. some years back, the correct method or making Washington DC, a state (the constitutions requirement) did pass both the house, senate and was signed by the president. (think Carter), but was killed, for lack of State ratifications. this would have allowed 2 senators and the 1 house member. the current bill to allow one house member with voting rights, would be struck down by the Supreme Court, but long before this the Senate will kill, by filibuster or the president, would certainly veto. in this case the senate, does not have the votes to override, such a veto. personally, i feel the people, of WDC, should have representation, however i would suggest through either the Maryland or Virginia political structure. there are advantages, primarily unlimited funding, from congress, which makes this a problem for DC politicians...

POM; in my discussions with you folks, i have mentioned an ora of an alternative issue. my contention has been the apparent dislike for the American Capitalistic track, which is a constant bulls-eye for anarchist and fanatical thinking groups around the world. posting something "what and why something cannot be done", by inference means the ideas are correct. this is not true, by any rational economist, geologist or member of society. there is not now or will there be reason for any society to change course in regards to activity or travel habits, in the foreseeable future. this is what you say one commodity has been searched for by current technology in recent years. i have noted as others, that 20 years ago means nothing, that technology faulty and many large finds substantiated in places by that older means was faulty. the planet has about 197 million square miles...of which 139m are oceans and 57.5m are land. very little ocean has been researched and you know this. of the land service; 3% urban, 40% for farming, 30% forest, 10% ice covered and about 10% wetlands...i can only guess how fast this checking or in some cases rechecking can be accomplished, but i do know there are limited resources for any program. the cost for an oil company, for just one ocean rig to RENT is near 100k US$ per day. Pool Company and those that do exploration for these companies and Haliburton, are not cheap and also have limited resources, with emphasis on ocean research. 1veedo; most all you and POM have suggested, i have seen, by some one. my interest in economics, business and other subjects cross many paths, which over the years i have read many opinions. since you are arguing an issue, assume you also know the opposing viewpoints and have seen them. if your avoiding the oppositions viewpoint in your study, this is not my problem. i have given some searches i used, but common sense tells me you know where to find any viewpoint, certainly on this topic...since much is from memory, i am subject to error, but when questioned and reviewing a post, in this case i see no errors, statistically. my opinions are just that and am very cautious to mention.

Islamic movements, extremist or not, is not a new operation. the theology or ideology has a very long history, basically not to pretty. since others including the Christan's, Catholics and even the Jewish have histories not all that pleasant, i might suggest the Islamic basic concepts are the last hold outs to a unified world. this meaning all the peoples have indisputable right to worship or not worship, entities of their own. the billions spent, i assume means Iraq or Afghanistan, are attempts to give the people of a nation the rights i suggest. if these 50 million people can achieve any form of governing which can allow free choice, especially for their woman, the right to choose leaders, or practice any chosen religion, then the billions will have been well spent. the US, is no less diversified than any country, the last i heard 200 plus major religious groups and people from every known country on the planet. under an established process any person, can be born in any spot on earth and achieve most any goal imaginable. many have... fanning the flames, is an interest concept. the very few recruits seem to be poor, not well educated and come from places where waring is the only know activity. anti- almost anything types are in every neighborhood, in every country and easily converted to any form of anarchy. yet with all the potential, the human bombers seem to be down to kids and woman, even to the point of being the bomb. remember under Islamic law, females hold no rights, this includes an order, the last submissive component.

very few think the universe, has no end; so yes most agree with you that it ends someplace. whats on the other side of course is not known, nor will it likely ever be known. if you prefer the Big Bang Theory, at least the current one, then space itself was part of the singularity, which sprang out giving us the universe. those then says "nothing" however defined, was replaced by space and that this space is the ends of the universe and in constant outward mode. IMO; the universe ends someplace, not likely to be expanding. space and the universe having always been pretty much as it is today. beyond then empty space...

yes, it was and remains cheaper to transport crude or the final product, than to go through a very costly process to explore for, drill and pump oil in the US. a permit to test, requires about 5 costly reports, generally based on environmental effects. then you have permits, from the state, county and in some cases municipal authorities. prices can range, but in many sates, none have been issued in years. why do you think BIG OIL, doesn't just pay that 20.00 bucks to begin with??? the mid-east oil embargo's that led to a shortage in the pipeline for those days had nothing to do with any bodies estimated oil peak. it did begin our national crude oil reserve, which has helped to prevent some political entity from trying this again. along with our efforts to globalize world trade and inter actions between economies, this is now less likely to happen. the one BILLION barrels in these reserves and the dependency on the revenue from selling the product by most producing countries, is only a small portion of what i classify as an efficient system.

POM; nothing is trashed in the process of discovery or recovering of crude oil. many suggest the aftermath of the process leaves the environment in better shape. however, your apparent motive, seems to be an opposition to Capitalism, the answer to my question. Iveedo; i think you will find, my opinions, and stated as such, were based on logical assumptions of what could be accomplished and more important why from the need to and the cost. geological reports were mentioned, which i generally read and trash, but are all over the WWW under many search results. in a brief search this morning *modern testing for oil reserves* the first page had many good sites for much of what i suggest. csun.edu, had a well written, informative report on oil discoveries in Russia, where these areas were search 30-40 years ago and said to contain no oil. they mentioned 11 major and one giant find. free energy news; also on the first page has a very interesting report on *biotic oil* which is an alternative fossil fuel scenario and gaining much respect from this newer process to explore. i might add, i have not touched on this in my argument, since it is argumentative. in short, the idea is oil is plentiful (VERY), at deeper levels, an element in constant reproduction. some interesting things to consider on fossil fuel...1-just what poundage of organic material that could have been, which by reasons, turn to oil, did so. we have used an awful lot in weight. 2-we can find remnant of organic life in some cases down to 18k foot, however have found reserves, to date, down 30k foot. 3-many old well, when revisited have been found to have near the amounts and some suggest more, than the yielded in the past. my arguments on peak, are not that complicated. to know such a peak, you have to know the limits of the item. we have no idea whats this limit could be, under even todays technology and certainly not under tomorrows. my second contention, is motivation or for what reason a person, group or government would have in attempting to panic a society. it generally leads to; person-dislike for a social structure, ie; capitalism. free trade, wealth, free trade or in some cases a desire for socialism or isolationism. group; an effort to attain funding for a non related cause, such as global warming, political achievement or any small project. government; the real culprit, IMO, because it uses the others to achieve higher income or increase taxes.

the service of the planet is 30% land and 70% oceans. if all land could have been re-explored with new technology and accepting that oceans have not been, this leaves a 30% max. of this max, most requires formal permission or is off limits for exploration, national parks and forest in the US cover most areas where oil is known to be or is thought to be and a good portion of land areas are just to cold to explore effectively. my original 10% of the total area on the planet is likely a high estimate, 5% more likely but still subject to lowering. in my arguments on GW and now on the peak stuff, i have never heard anyone suggest most our service areas have been tested, certainly not by the newer technology which has made test drilling a less of a gamble. my figures on surface areas can be found any where, as are the ideas of where and what lands can or are subject to can be found in any number of geological reports. the 5 and 10%, even though i consider to high are my opinion based on others and mentioned stats. i will take your "float around in the oceans" as a negative on finding oils in the open oceans. this is a new trend offered by this new seismic technology. done now by laser, opposed to explosives, less than ten years old. oil seeps into the oceans all the time, more each day than the "great Alaskan oil spill, at least its been said. this can happen only under some pressure, meaning a reservoir is there. of the many thousands of such places, there is no limit to potential or whats called effect on the peak theory. peak oil theory is trying to base itself on old procedure and whats called easy oil. my contention is easy or not, this unknown fact is not determinable and in logic, much greater oil is available than even conceivable, by most that made up these limits or times to peak.

POM; "i would suggest, 10%" of the worlds service; is based on some real facts. the real figure for world land service is 30%. a large portion is state owned or the government requires permits to visit, much less test for anything. in general this amounts to ABOUT 50% of that 30%. as you have said, we or the industry has previously not check in many places for reasons. also the new methods are less than 10 years old, and exploration takes time. additionally the 70% oceans have at best been .01% explored. in all probability, using the newer techniques we have probably not tested 5%, being polite to your "everywhere" comment. even here its often old fields, which are being revived. you might know, since its your thing, that well were abandoned in groves because it was not possible or known how to get oil up and out of the ground, with about 1/3 the reserves pumped. (economically) in the US, over 1/3 of our land service is public. this in National Parks, Forest and the like. most of which is in good areas for potential oil reserves and no person can test the water, much less than for oil. there are no figures for what is permitted to be explored, however in areas where oil is know to be from the 70's to 90's, much cannot be accessed. the California, Oregon, Florida Coast, Alaska and about 50 major areas on land in these same states. i am sorry, but i wish you would get to your intended point. your handle here "POM", your threads on peak oil, peak coal and comments on some pending world calamity (all in 20 years) is taking on a very spooky scenario. the best i can figure your concern is China, its development and potential threat to your country. for 20 million folks, Australia is thriving, as stable and sound as any other nation, per capita. i have always feared government actions can scare a society, which may be in your case. mandating light bulbs, for an entire nation is a precursor to whats intended. one last little side note. the US road system, from the 1950's is a copy of the German system, based on national security. the inter-state, was started for truck and military purposes, but the public would not let fly.

the search for, test drilling, even testing for possible reserves has slowed many times in the short history of oil for energy. the process is very expensive and for many small companies there death nail. the better operated and now oil giants have there own operations, however hire others to do much of the work. the largest and most known is Haliburton, which in turn hires out many small companies for certain jobs. if i have inferred a costly and potential failure of a search, this my point. this process and discoveries, you can track to the price of a barrel of oil. the current capacity, of refiners is less than the output of the current pumping operations. top this off with the massive transportation, ships, pipe lines and storage problems. to produce an over abundance or more than could be used would drop the price to levels the major producers do not want to happen. no purpose would be served, other than government taxation which would occur, if the price of the crude or products declined. every time the product prices have declined, taxes have gone up. in the US this has been done on Jan. 1st in most every year and both by federal and state governments. heating oil, just beginning its annual increases and diesel/gas at its lowest levels. over production of the products produced, from gasoline, diesel to fertilizer and plastics, are not permitted for reasons of natural degradation or breakdown of the final products. long before the products become totally unusable, the efficiency of each product becomes less. oil then can be stored and many countries have some in storage, BUT the products cannot be stored for any long period of time.

Phil; i know where this goes and will attempt an answer. however my point is and was, bad is not determined by income or lack of anything, be it food love or fear... no genetics in my opinion nothing to do with good and evil. any study i have seen with this thought has to do with a desire to be like or a copycat mentality. this includes movies, TV or a friend or relative. my opinion here would question this since so few people are apparently influenced. bad parenting per say, also will not make a person bad unless the above applies. a parent glorification of some one who was bad and paying the price or encourages minor crime, not realizing whats ahead. a pot smoking parent or a mom who brags about getting government aid for reasons a child instinctively feels are wrong, are good examples. good parents can result in bad kids to adulthood and of course the reverse. educational and peer influences, i believe can play a major role. ideology, religious beliefs and heritage influence will permit many things as good when the society the person lives or will live in considers them bad. all my references are to the forming mind or person. at some point every person makes a choice to follow or not. role models, good parenting, sound education and the persons natural instincts into adulthood will override all influence unless that person is predisposed to some form of social wrong doing. this happens in all levels of income. i will admit criminal elements of society seem to remain poorer than the average, use drugs, alcohol or a number of things, yet have kids inadvertently making those kids question their own emotions or feelings of right and wrong.

foodchain; poverty does not lead to crime. bad people commit crime and any notion that a poor person is predestined to such a life misleading. currently the number one cause seems to be drugs, but not being poor. if you live in the US, 95% of the worlds people, live in poverty by your standards, yet the US records by far more crime. i can no longer argue that all people with lower incomes, are not subject law enforcements. this Duke University, ordeal has really upset my personal view of our legal system. many cases like the OJ Simpson case, are understandable and have caused me to question the jury system, but if one person can do all whats been done in one little district in NC, then i am going to question all public prosecutors.

a fellow, named Fred Smith, working for the US Postal Service, had an idea for his employer, even wrote an official outline and after being turned down went out and started his own little company. you may have heard of this little company as its now called "Fed Ex", one of the largest such next day delivery systems in the world, which now has USPD as a customer. there are 100's of such stories, where employers were just flat wrong. the point is the success or failure of any organization has to be lead. this by implication includes labor. Wal-Mart has near 2 million worldwide employees and with all the publicity it receives will continue to achieve or fail in its track depending on its ability to maintain this control.

i would suggest we have tested 10% or less of the earths service, specifically for oil reserves. even from space we can some idea conditions where a particular element should be found, but with extremely low accuracy. of this 10%, many finds in reserves have been rediscovered by the newer seismic methods which found none before. deeper or hidden by other elements are still a problem. even the Jack 2 find is with in a several thousand foot thick salt/rock formation, until recently or by older standards would never have been a potential exploration drilling sight, much less practical. land is one third the planet, oceans make up 2/3rds. of the land Antarctic and its northern sister represent great potentials, with virtually no activity. by sisters i am referring to inside the Arctic circle, as the waters under that pole are not well documented, much less tested. yes we can determine usage and the financial contributions to the worlds economy. by far, energy in all its differing methods from locating, transporting, refining, shipping, distribution and so on is the single most important issue for this continuance. alternatives, which are just as important will some day replace the original and as i maintain, even when this day comes, oil would still be available. there is nothing chaotic about the current system. its very well organized and the efficiency is better than any other industry, including food. as crude oil, food is plentiful, plenty of each available to feed and energize the world, but i will suggest that you can get gas/petrol in many places, where food you may not find....

No, actually your not appearing unbalanced. the questions asked are very common, been discussed many times and some today feel even the pyramids were built from an outside source. there are many natural and rock formation, some believe were left by space aliens as well. i personally do not agree, but you are certainly not alone.

many feel the earths mean temperature reached +10 to +20 of todays mean at some point during this Dino period (240-65MYA). they attribute the, what should have been large areas of tropical conditions, rain forest and so on to the expansions of mammals and primates. some do think the sun heats up to the maximum from its formation and at mid-life begins to cool, very slowly. but, this alone would make little difference. on your migration hypotheses; there are a few that think mankind came from Mars, or even elsewhere in the universe. genetics and now DNA, pretty much says we are all (life) from the same basic evolutionary process. the stones and things you thinking are not thought to be from the Dino period, or at least i think your thinking. generally 4 or 5 thousand years ago, when things should have been pretty much like today. natural rock formations are pretty interesting as natural forces carve what we can see today. also keep in mind continental shift and mountain formations continue to today. there are large, very large ones in places where they seem should be and in some cases can be tracked to distant places.

POM; the Chinese find is located off shore in a shallow bay. this was a report from there media. this find is not all that important, but the fact they are beginning to get enthused, is important. coal their primary energy means is very hard to go around, as they have a great deal of known reserves. Jack 2, the Chevron, Gulf of Mexico is an example of whats to come and what i have written on. the expected 3 Billion barrel find, is 28,000 feet deep. cost 100 million to drill and with the current technology, the only question was to the total find. this a first and only the beginning of what could come. very, very little of the oceans have been explored, or the deep waters around any continent. what i say with referance to national reserves; this figure is based on accessible oil only. known means nothing if you cannot drill the oil or that is not yet practical. the Utah/Colorado shale/tar or sand is not included, along with known oil off the coast of California, Florida, some Texas and all of Alaska's National Parks. my point was very simple. as big as the oil giants are, a very small group can make it so costly to drill, by the use of courts and regulation, permits and consumed time that is by far cheaper to import the crude. these companies know where great reserves are, but the 100 or more dollar cost to access the oil and time involved is NOT WORTH THE EFFORT. in the US, we have a serious problem in refining oil to the various products. additionally there are some 30-40 different grades needed to fit federal and state mandated requirements. California, for example is the most demanding and even demands various mixtures for different areas for not only gas, but diesel, heating oil or any burned product. then, they will not allow any refinery process in there state, nor allow any of the known new oil reserves to be pumped. a few years ago, many of the Permian basin oil fields, were in the city limits of many towns. these towns are still there and thriving, never suffering any ill effects of these operations. Midland, Odessa and many others built there city halls ON the site of a rig. we have gone from this mentality to one where we can do very little, on any US territory. this in my opinion has come from many who are opposed to things other than environment or even preventing a problem.

my argument is you nor any person can predict the unknown. i can only give you a day by day account of new finds verses the quantities used. there are those that would argue, the formation of the product itself is not understood. China, is todays news as a large find has been discovered. China as is Asia in general along with Africa, has not been fully, even nearly checked for possible reserves. many places in the US are off limits to this exploration, since even a find would mean nothing or be to costly, by permit, to pump. if we were to find a hundred trillion barrel in California or Florida, it would be more cost/efficient to import the stuff, until it were non existent. what was "easy oil", may peak or be close to it. however what is easy today is not what will be so as easy becomes technological conceivable in the future. we know that in thousands of places deep in the oceans, oil naturally seeps into the water and have absolutely no idea what exist in the pool this takes place. any one could be found to contain...and ill let you pick a figure. again, alternative energy is and will continue to be explored and utilized by people, industry and governments. this will proceed for many reasons, none of which are or should be for any concern of running out. market forces that produced mankind's greatest advancements have changed, because of people reasoning short term atmospheric conditions. we now have concerns of dependency on people that think in ways to use any dependency as a control over other systems. the giving of a false premise that something will happen, detrimental to man or that a peak of something will cause catastrophic global problems, in my opinion falls just short of the doom and gloom scenario of some theological leader preaching doomsday. unwarranted, unfounded and unnecessary for the general public to be forced to swallow.