The Iowa caucuses started. Who do you think will be the winners in each party?

For those that don't know, a caucus isn't a voting situation. It's not a five minute thing where you go in and write your name on a piece of paper. It's more like in cartoons when someone really draws a line in the sand and everyone picks a side.

 

The doors close at 7pm. At 7, everyone goes off to their candidate's corner (if they're not undecided). A preliminary count is done. If a candidate doesn't get a certain percentage of the people, they aren't qualified to caucus and their people enter the undecided group.

 

At this point, the debating begins. Everyone tries to get the undecided to join them and to get the opposing team to defect and join their team.

 

Once time is up, a final count is done. Delegates are awarded according to how many people are in each candidate's corner......literally.

Trump or Cruz. Clinton or Sanders.

 

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

 

I'd like to see Sanders and Kaisich come out winners, though.

Clinton or Sanders.

You say that like O'Malley ever had a chance. Clinton and Sanders are still VERY close.

75% reporting. Cruz at 28%, Trump 25%, Rubio 22%

 

Martin O'Malley to drop out within next 40 mins

You say that like O'Malley ever had a chance. Clinton and Sanders are still VERY close.

I was trying to make a funny.

Edited February 2, 201610 yr by iNow

80% of precincts are in and Clinton is barely ahead by less than a percent. Trump is performing worse than polling.

Blows my mind that one out of every two Iowegians wants Cruz or Trump to be our president.

 

Rubio will be the momentum story running one point behind the Donald.

 

Bernie and Hillary are within the margin of error. That's amazeballs.

Bernie and Hillary are at about half a percent. I wonder if he will keep going up. Still quite a few precincts to come in.

It looks like Huckabee is folding his campaign too.

Sanders: 49.36

Clinton: 49.96

 

85.48% in

84% reporting. Sanders down 0.7%. This is not a joke. He's proven this is a serious movement.

 

Cruz has won with 98% reporting. Trump 2nd and Rubio 3rd with fewer than 2,000 vote difference.

So far, Clinton leads by less than a percent, but Sanders leads by a delegate. Let's say that's the final count for the sake of argument. Who won?

90% reporting. Separation btw Sanders and Clinton at 0.2%

.

Let's say that's the final count for the sake of argument. Who won?

The people who want to make my brain hurt.

90% reporting. Separation btw Sanders and Clinton at 0.2%

And now the delegate differential is 2 instead of 1.

Clinton's lead has widened back to 0.8%

93% in and the difference is back down to 0.7%.

No matter how this turns out, it's a tie... And a massive win for Sanders and those who support him.

And the difference has jumped back down to within 0.2%

 

I think the only outcome difference on a Sanders win vs a Clinton win is the spin. Either way, it's going to be spun toward Clinton. If Clinton wins, it's a stunning victory. If Sanders wins, it's going to be a long grueling election.

I see more of a, "Wow! Who'da thunk it?!?" spin coming, myself, but YMMV.

Edited February 2, 201610 yr by iNow

Is 'Iowegians' really a word, iNow ?

According to my inlaws who are from there, yes.

 

Hillary officially declared winner, but it took 6 coin tosses for that decision to be made (and she somehow managed to win all 6).

According to my inlaws who are from there, yes.

 

Hillary officially declared winner, but it took 6 coin tosses for that decision to be made (and she somehow managed to win all 6).

Funny, but Iowa apparently does award delegates on the basis of coin tosses.

See "Sometimes, Iowa Democrats award caucus delegates with a coin flip" http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/

(and she somehow managed to win all 6).

Making this whole crazy event even crazier, that is actually under dispute.

 

The coin flip wasn't a terribly big deal, not in the end anyway: http://www.npr.org/2016/02/02/465268206/coin-toss-fact-check-no-coin-flips-did-not-win-iowa-for-hillary-clinton

 

The real question is what happens when the delegate juggernaut states start voting. Will Hillarys organization on the ground pull her through of will Bernies grassroots mobilizing authenticity and human focus win the day?

 

In short, what's happening now is great news fodder, but what happens March-April is what matters.

Yeah, rumor mill at work. We know that there were a) more than 6 and b) Hillary did not win all of them. Not impossible though, Gambler's fallacy and all that.

 

Before Iowa I was being told that losing would be such a bandwagon-stopping sobering effect for Trump that even a good NH would mean his campaign would be faltering before reaching the big ones in March. however it now seems that Hillary is the one with that effect - and she doesn't stand an ice-cubes chance of winning NH so it is quite a wait till Nevada (which she is likely to win) and SC which she is at present strong strong favourite

I noted with interest in the Cruz victory speech he spoke repeatedly of uniting the party, but not once of uniting the nation. That told me all I need to know about Cruz.

A bit sad, but true: