Lichtman's 13 Keys to the 2024 Election

[Peterkin]

50 minutes ago, Airbrush said:

Allen Lichtman has addressed your concerns and believes his model is not yet outdated.

Then we must disagree, but only one of us free to change his method according to prevailing trend and still claim its efficacy.

[Airbrush]

22 hours ago, iNow said:

Even if the model is garbage and is based on the number of eyes on a potato spud or on how many ears of corn Tonya can fit into a record player box, it STILL has a 50/50 chance of being correct 

Suppose he had a 50% probability in one year.  For 9 years: 50% to the power of 9 = A very tiny probability his model is random.

[swansont]

1 hour ago, Airbrush said:

Could you quote that from his published paper of Oct 2016?  I can't find it.

I did quote that.

https://www.scienceforums.net/topic/134213-lichtmans-13-keys-to-the-2024-election/#comment-1274528

Social Education 80(5) p256, second paragraph 

“the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes”

 

1 hour ago, Airbrush said:

What octopus did you mention?  I searched above and could not find it.  Is there an octopus that correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections?  No octopus lives 40 years.  They live between 1 year and up to 5 years in captivity.

https://www.scienceforums.net/topic/134213-lichtmans-13-keys-to-the-2024-election/#comment-1274357

You’re 0-for-2 in finding things posted in this thread.

[iNow]

2 hours ago, Airbrush said:

50% to the power of 9 = A very tiny probability his model is random.

That’s not how this works. Chance alone using a coin flip would be exactly as good as him about 3x out of every 100 tries. Get a couple thousand people flipping coins and something like 15% of them would have equally good predictions.

Forgive me, but I find his prediction “abilities” far less impressive than you do. He’s capitalizing on people who are bad at statistics. 

Edited September 6 by iNow

[Peterkin]

5 hours ago, Airbrush said:

For 9 years: 50% to the power of 9 = A very tiny probability his model is random.

How, exactly, does this equation work? I'm no mathematician, but ....

3 hours ago, iNow said:

He’s capitalizing on people who are bad at statistics. 

I suspect he actually believes that those key factors determine the outcome of elections. Based on a set of assumptions about US politics that have prevailed in the 20th century, they would be strongly indicative of the outcome. But he didn't add in unprecedented factors - probably because they're extremely difficult to quantify and any attempt would have complicated the model too much.