Everything posted by Ken Fabian
-
Who will be first to monetise free energy?
Not sure 'free' is possible. Our PV + battery fitted home uses almost no electricity from the grid - and sends more than twice what we use to the grid - but we paid for the hardware and will face replacement costs down the track. Too cheap for profitable commercial investment suggest that 'socialising' - treating energy supply as a government provided essential service - could be appropriate. I can envisage roofing manufacturers including some kind of cheap and easy PV coating as a no-extra-cost inducement but even so called plug and play doesn't quite cover all that is involved in installing it with the associated wiring and hardware.
-
Enormous data center project in Utah desert
As one of the most staunchly Republican US states, how much would an 'anything but renewables' energy choice be a necessary condition for government support for such a massive project in Utah, despite of - even because of - so much energy in Utah already coming from solar and wind ? How much is the massive energy demand of AI seen as a spanner in the spokes of renewable energy growth - an opportunity to shift away from that course - by people who don't really know much or care about AI? My cynicism - full disclosure here - runs very deep.
-
What is the legal significance of evidence provided by AI ?
Here in Australia it is an offense - hands-free (bluetooth with on-the-steering wheel or verbal switching) is fine but holding the phone isn't. It does make sense. The danger isn't so much the talking part, but more from locating a ringing phone, looking to see who the caller is, finding the 'answer' option or conversely, the process of making a call out. Those do require a lot of attention and looking at the phone. >>Considering all the recent discussions about AI lying to us to satisfy its programming, how should we consider evidence of wrongdoing provided by AI ? For the topic itself I am more concerned for AI as 'expert witness' than for faking of evidence; it could become problematic (more so with news media than courts) but I think identifying fake images or documents may be less so (probably using a form of AI?) than assessing the competence of AI giving expert testimony. I don't know whether how cross examination might work. One AI 'expert opinion' seems insufficient for a court but the same 'testimony' across several different, independent AI's may be seen as sufficient - whilst differing testimony would see it rejected.
-
Pumping attempt by solar-pneumatics...
This did make me think about utilising that kind of expansion and contraction to make a solar powered 'motor - pushing pistons on an axle - perhaps for water pumping. I think it could be made to work (and someone probably has); I just don't think it would work very well. The versatility of electricity and effectiveness of PV seem to do these things very well already, yet are still a long way from the learning curve topping out. The hardware is not for home workshops but innovative ways of putting the components together can be.
-
Why is there a Great Divide between animal designs? Never read anything about this anywhere!
They are slaters here in Australia. I haven't encountered any that roll up but haven't looked hard. No response from Ulrich so far. Given how easy to find information about evolution of tetrapods I am not convinced the OP was sincere...
-
Why is there a Great Divide between animal designs? Never read anything about this anywhere!
I typed "Why are reptiles, birds and mammals four limbed?" into a search engine and got abundant references to Tetrapods and their evolution. Amongst those near the top were links to explanations of why that body plan is so prevalent and has persisted so strongly. I find it odd that you have not found and read any of those. Lots of links and references from a simple search to the fact that most species of extant fish are not tetrapods, despite the four fins if you don't count the tail form is very common. But six fins and tail are common too. Most living fish are 'ray finned' and are not tetrapods. Early tetrapods 'fish' (fish being a body style rather than a taxonomic category) were 'lobe finned'. Lungfish and Coelacanths are examples of 'lobe finned' fish more closely related to tetrapods - but aren't descended from them.
-
Skyhook Equator. Orbiting Rotating Launcher Animator-Calculator.
Should be useful for science fiction writers who are wanting to make their stories sound credible.
-
Today I Learned
Hydrofoils ran regular services on Sydney Harbour for a couple of decades, up into the 1980's I think, ultimately replaced with catamarans. I think there were a few collisions with floating debris, that didn't stop the service, but I don't know to the extent that played in choosing the catamarans to replace them. Seems to me a high speed catamaran - any vessel at any speed - would be at risk too. Hydrofoils may be the better at lowering their working surface area to reduce drag and maximise speed but catamarans do well too. Hovercraft have the least of all I suppose but they have other problems.
-
Today I Learned
I learned that hydrofoil boats are not only faster with smoother ride, they use less energy. But I also learned that their use is limited where there are things in the water, like floating logs washed down rivers or animals like whales and dolphins. Will we get better radar/sonar to navigate those shifting hazards? And drones come to my mind as a way to track the hazards. https://cleantechnica.com/2026/04/15/fast-hydrofoils-floating-logs-canadas-ferry-electrification-challenge/
-
China’s solar capacity set to overtake coal in ‘historic’ shift
I do think that batteries are going to do a lot more and sooner than most people think. Here there are almost more battery projects than solar and wind ones, with them becoming a ubiquitous inclusion in new wind and solar farms. They will give a huge boost solar and wind by increasing their effectiveness and reduce reliance on gas peaking plants (which have a price setting/price inflating role around here even without oil and gas supply crises) but also provide (already providing) solutions to grid chokepoints and (with grid forming inverters) giving voltage/frequency instability/system strength and provide quick and convenient and versatile solutions to inadequacies within the grid, often in spite of relative costs compared to grid upgrades. I think quick and convenient as short term fix in the face of planning indecision and uncertainty will continue work in their favour - and become a long term fixture. Lots of EV's in the system are potentially grid stabilising and decentralising too, especially with proliferation of charger fitted parking spaces at workplaces (which may have rooftop solar too), shopping centres and street parking; a plugged in EV being potentially a lot more than a passive load. And when a lot of EV's charge elsewhere during the day and plug into homes at night they will cut down the evening peak loads. I do think lot of overnight low cost power and EV charging like that has been a consequence of coal plants. And convenience. That won't persist and may depend on wind for overnight charging to remain dominant - or just convenience. People appear willing to pay quite a bit extra for convenience and if charger fitted parking is commonplace, especially if it is wireless and hands free, that will be able to take advantage of and better utilise daytime solar.
-
1200 years of Cherry Blossom season dates support climate change data
Whilst cherry blossoms in Japan by themselves are more a regional indicator than global similar records within horticulture with a variety of species - spring budding, flowering, Autumn leaf falls etc - showing that same warming trend around the world. We are not short of clear indicators of a major climate shift being in progress, just short on commitments to doing much about it. I think that if solar/wind/batteries had failed to break the cost barrier and begin to scale we would be in a much worse position, with much less progress on decarbonising energy. Arguing about nuclear, doing it at inadequate scales, with higher levels of 'but decarbonising transport is too hard and our industry is essential to the economy' (without battery EV's)?
-
Glass coatings. Really? Glass?
We should be using PPE for every kind of timber and it seems like a case of some being worse than others but no wood dust being benign, even without timber preservatives or sealers. Around here the much prized but now rare Australian Red Cedar is known as a particularly bad one to breathe, as is Camphor Laurel (that smells nice), which was introduced here and in some areas has become a seriously invasive pest. There are others of concern. Use of silica coatings does seem to present heightened health risks and even use of air filtration for the workspace won't eliminate all dusts.
-
English...
The Common Law system seems somewhat similar - not a written out set of laws (although Common Law rulings often lead to legislated laws) but legal precedents from past cases (initially cases without precedents) that can be revised case by case in the face of changing arguments and new evidence.
-
What are you listening to right now?
Whilst some jazz has made it into my listening it hasn't been the largest part so I still get some surprises encountering Jazz greats I wasn't aware of. I acquired a copy of a Monty Alexander album "Threesome" and was blown away especially by the bassist. Long time jazz fans most likely all know of (the late) Niels-Henning Ørsted Pedersen but he was a surprise to me. This guy just playing normally comes off as showing off, an Art Tatum of the double bass. Not necessarily my first choice for easy listening for enjoyment but well worth it for the jawdropping virtuosity... (couldn't find vids of him with Monty Alexander, did find astonishing classical bass solo but have included a jazz one with Oscar Peterson) -
-
What Youtube videos are you watching now or have you watched recently?
An exception to my mostly live music videos has been viewing animations of biochemistry processes, eg this one for mitosis and the kinetichore -
-
What Youtube videos are you watching now or have you watched recently?
I don't watch many internet videos - don't watch much TV or movies, I prefer reading or messing about with a guitar or wasting time on internet forums in free time - but occasionally will watch some music videos, usually of the live performances sort. Links to which may better belong in a 'what are you listening to?' thread. Most recently some Oliver Mtukudzi (a Zimbabwe muso I heard by accident and found I liked) and some Yes, that I've had a renewed enthusiasm for lately -
-
Human brain could stay conscious 'hours after death'
A brain having some ECG measurable activity and being conscious seem very different to me. How much of a brain's function is devoted to consciousness? Which may depend on how we define it.
-
Age of consent (split from Epstein files reveal deeper ties to scientists than previously known.)
Where I am when both (all?) participants are near in age and both 'underage' that is treated differently to someone adult/older and someone who is underage. 16 years is considered 'able to consent' and above 18 is legally adult - enough of a difference to make 'near in age' an uncertain defense where one is legally adult. Which is not to say boys of similar age can't be using coercion; I've encountered claims that the greatest risk of sexual assaults are from others who are also underage, which seems likely to be true. I think the ability of some older men (mostly men but not exclusively) to lure and persuade the young and inexperienced should not be underestimated. The extent to which their mixed feelings, including sexual curiosity can be manipulated and appearance of consent contrived should not be underestimated. As an aside I made the mistake of reading some of Marquis de Sade's writings - causing abandonment of any absolute 'burning books is wrong' principles, that was a book deserving of banning and burning imo; I could not read more than a couple of chapters - truly sickening - but amongst what I did skim over was a character renowned for his ability to turn innocent underage virgins into 'willing' sex slaves. I suspect it was a book that inspired some accomplished abusers.
-
Madhouse Politics and Green Energy - Solutions please.
@sethoflagos My mistake, although they do share some characteristics. The larger Syncons are very massive, nearly as massive as dedicated flywheels, but yes, flywheels will do a different task and can be run down; Syncons look intended to maintain their rotation rate with enough inertia to limit the rate of loss or gain in speed from grid variability. Presumably they will consume power to keep that rotation rate close to steady? Until confidence in synthetic inertia is established a hybrid of Syncons with batteries might be better than including flywheels.
-
Madhouse Politics and Green Energy - Solutions please.
I've only just read this. Would it be a silly idea to run a couple of vast flywheels, just to add "ballast" to the system? One could even simply retain a couple of these big turbo-alternator sets, unpowered, and spun up and maintained to 50Hz off the grid. That sounds like a long established technology called Synchronous Condensers and Australia is currently adding them to cover the withdrawal of thermal (spinning) power plants. SynCons are expensive with a long lead time for manufacture and unlike batteries have limited ways to make revenue other than as system inertia and frequency control so there is incentive to perfect inverter controlled virtual inertia - which appears to primarily involve updated inverter software or possibly upgrading the inverters. Trust in virtual inertia is not all the way there; it is being used but it seems to still be on trial, to see how well they perform in the real world. We did discuss virtual inertia on another thread. It is also possible to retrofit gas power plants (any thermal generator? Seimens do them I think) with clutches, to allow the generator to disconnect from the 'engine' (gas turbines usually) and remain online, providing spinning inertia like when in full operation, as the equivalent of a SynCon.
-
China’s solar capacity set to overtake coal in ‘historic’ shift
@KJW I see no great fears of rechargeable batteries in homes - no more than flammable Ford Pintos stopped car sales. I think the heightened fire risk is more from the proliferation, from the numbers of chargers and devices themselves as much as the batteries. Shavers, toothbrushes, phones, headphones, laptops, phones, vacuums, power tools, bikes, scooters, toys and many more. And the greater risk is from low budget makers, sometimes with counterfeit components, including batteries (which are inclined to have overstated capacity as well). The most common sort of fires may be from improper disposal of small batteries - landfill sites and garbage trucks. Setting and enforcing standards is the solution and recalls can work as reassuring evidence that they are enforced as much as create fears of batteries in general. I do think the doubt, deny, delay opponents of decarbonising are inclined to manufacture and exaggerate alarmist fears out of battery fires - and pay little attention to the many other sources of fire risks. I do recall solar battery recalls - not a proliferation of battery recalls, just very specific ones and not recently. People with other brands of batteries found that reassuring. Solar batteries are being installed at prodigious rates on Australian home and LFP types, with lower fire risk than previous types, have emerged as dominant. But I admit I am somewhat cynical about policy that makes decarbonising with RE a "you care, you do it, at your own expense" with "Don't care? Don't have to" kind of policy; it seems like it is an alternative to requiring it of companies participating in electricity markets so that everyone's electricity is decarbonised, like decarbonising should be a 'free' choice by consumers but not a requirement for energy producers. Yet individual systems on rooftops is cost effective at the household scale, which makes me think it must be more cost effective at large scale; rather than fire fears holding them back some of the reluctance may be from the rate of improvement, where delaying a bit can wring some more profit out of existing generation and maybe get the same things or better cheaper. But there is no doubt things have changed at the grid level. No-one is investing in coal plants, there is very little investment in gas plants and the market advantage of gas 'filling the unfilled demand' and setting power prices by it is rapidly diminishing. I know that what we have on our home works and continues to work well and is paying for itself in power cost savings and can be installed a lot cheaper now than what it cost us. I also note that Australia's home PV, with or without batteries gets installed at a fraction of what US users pay; according to Saul Griffiths in an interview with David Roberts (Volts substack) installing 15 KW PV in Australia at the same time as 15 KW in San Francisco, around 5 to 6 times more expensive in the latter. (may vary widely depending where?). Australia's permitting is simple and quick too. Not so quick for the big grid batteries - and yes, the objections often focus of fire risks. But a lot of the objectors are opposing them out of deep rooted partisan climate science denial that has morphed into renewable energy denial.
-
China’s solar capacity set to overtake coal in ‘historic’ shift
I suspect that most places there was lack of confidence that the RE buildout would happen any time soon, even as recently as a decade ago and that flowed through as reluctance to pre-invest in the transmission and storage (pumped hydro probably looked best, with hydrogen hype in there too), that have lead-in times as long as that. There have also been persistent spoiling efforts from the doubt, deny, delay side of politics including supporting 'local' politically partisan opposition to building the infrastructure a high RE grid requires )to be sure their claims it can't work turn out true?) - denial has been well supported and the surprise is that RE has forged ahead despite it. And few 'serious, credible' pundits predicted the rise of batteries. Only 8 years ago Australia got a 'big Tesla battery' to widespread derision at around the same time as a commitment to a large pumped hydro project. Seems like the global consensus was batteries would never get cheap enough or scale large enough to be significant. The pumped hydro (Snowy 2.0) is delayed, hugely over budget and still in construction but batteries, big and small, are proliferating across Australia and the world - mega battery factories that make more storage than that pumped hydro project each year have been built from ground up, are in production and their products in service since then. Batteries may not ever achieve the per MWh costs of pumped hydro but their versatility and stackability and the other (voltage and frequency regulation) services are unrivalled. Short build times make them an interim 'quick fix' that is turning into a more permanent fix. Can provide system strength too, as 'grid forming' inverters capable of spinning inertia emulation become the norm. China, as a developing nation with large population still in poverty, had until 2060 before international agreements required declining emissions. Whether that was a wise agreement is a real question - I suspect for 'leaders' around the world there wasn't much real expectation built in and agreements for doing the least were considered a win and more aggressive targets a lose. In Australia the potential for China remaining a long term FF buyer probably played a part in willingness to agree. But they do appear to be exceeding their targets as well as indirectly helping a lot of other nations reach theirs. I note that here in Australia RE has been above 50% of electricity over the past quarter year, with lower wholesale prices and fewer outages during heatwaves - like another tipping point has been crossed. I know our household PV and (recently upsized) batteries run our A/C into the evening without drawing on the grid at all; that experience is becoming commonplace. What works at smaller scales will work even better at larger scales.
-
No, Earth Won’t Lose Gravity for 7 Seconds on August 12, NASA Says
To me these kinds of conspiracy theories are more in the disturbing (that people promote them and believe them) but kinda amusing category. End of the world from Earth going out of orbit, contrails are a delivery system for mind control substances, arrival of aliens, presence of secret aliens etc. It is when conspiracy theories have strong media and political support that they are problematic, eg that global warming science is something made up by enemies of freedom and national sovereignty and legitimate businesses or vaccines are dangerous, should not be mandated and their use discouraged. Those kill people and, distressingly, can and will do so in large numbers.
-
Messages to the president...
It is all deeply alarming - properly terrifying even - and the 'need' looks entirely fabricated in this case. If bases for defending North America from Russia or China were needed - which seems very doubtful - all that was needed was to ask nicely, via NATO or through Denmark; via NATO the costs of Greenland defenses would be spread around. If US mining companies want to mine minerals there they would almost certainly be permitted. They would (horrifying!) have to pay local taxes - not sure to what extent those would go to Greenland vs to Denmark. Anything worth the mining will make profits after taxes. And if successfully 'conquered' and that is allowed by the EU that would be deeply alarming for Canada, Mexico, Cuba (and other Caribbean nations). Alarming for everyone. As an Australian should we be worried that our resources could be enticing to a USA that has abandoned any pretense promoting international cooperation? Coal and gas and iron ore and uranium - rare Earth's too - as well as all our wheat and beef and etc... A bit ironically I have less fear of China doing that to Australia than the USA. I note that so far Australia's government is mostly keeping heads down and mouths closed, apart from assuring everyone treaty agreements with the USA remain strongly supported and we are still 'buying' those nuclear submarines at inflated prices. Personally I'd like something that would reassure the rest of the world that Australia's government thinks what the US is doing is deeply objectionable as well as dangerous.
-
No, Earth Won’t Lose Gravity for 7 Seconds on August 12, NASA Says
Someone at NASA thought they had to say something about it, like they should take it seriously? Especially with a nonsense 'prediction' that will come around soon and be demonstrated as nonsense all by itself. 'Gravity doesn't work like that' would have been a more than adequate response if responding at all was necessary. I'd be tempted to derision or parody or mockery which wouldn't help either. The urge to inform and educate is a good one but even granting this a response gives the claim a level of credulousness it does not rightfully deserve.