J.C.MacSwell

Now, what happens to sanctions after the war? Does it depend on how it ends? If it's a negotiated settlement, is Russia in a position to demand the end to some of the sanctions as part of any agreement? How quickly can Russia recover, or do they in fact continue to decline from the sanction effects even after some are reversed? Also how can the West support the rebuilding of Ukraine if it falls to Russian control? It would seem to me that the West should feel compelled to discourage any support for Russia's economy while under Putin, but at the same time want to help out the people of Ukraine, if not Russians as well to some extent.

The lovely blue there...Why would they have joined NATO? I wonder why they didn't join Putin?

Some insist it's black...others claim it's white...most at a glance might call it grey. I wish they would make up their mind.

I don't know either. Nor was I trying to suggest that. To me it makes no difference. The intent is pretty clear that they are for use to defend themselves, but they are lethal weapons. When Germany joined in in the supply of them after the war began it marked a historic shift in policy for them. It seems it's allowed though. So hopefully it is effective for Ukraine while leading toward deescalation rather than escalation.

...and in supply of lethal weapons, yes. Arguably not totally, but then not totally financially either.

When did Putin become their Governor?

Are those the same forces that were never going to invade, or the ones on the peacekeeping mission?

We love you though INow.

Good post but it might be best to take away your thread, and add it to someone else's.

It would certainly be nice to think he's running out of combat troops. Hopefully the mercenaries, if they feel inclined to support his brutality, ask for pay in Euros or USD.

Right. So where are his professional soldiers? Does he not have many? I think there may be something to this.

One would expect that the number of professional soldiers would be over-represented in the approx. 20% committed to Ukraine...and their performance to date doesn't bode well for Putin, especially if the other 800,000+ leave him looking elsewhere for combat increases and replacements.

😁

Russian society is pretty messed up. https://bitterwinter.org/patriarch-of-moscow-blesses-war-against-gay-prides/

Surely Putin would have moved more to the border as he moved the vast majority of them into Ukraine? And if this represents just somewhere in the range of 20% of his 1,000,000+ military personnel, what is the need, and motivation, for hiring mercenaries?

No worries. One day INow will say "FFS really? so needless" when we poke fun of the extreme Right...and then we can put on our skates and play shinny in Hell...

Sorry INow...forgive my sense of humour

...at least when they come from the Left we know their intentions were good...

Apparently the WH thinks they may have a lead on some climate friendly oil that could replace the Russian's climate friendly oil... "U.S. officials make rare trip to Venezuela, discuss resuming oil imports to help replace Russian fuel" https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/venezuela-american-officials-visit/

I'm thinking they can fly them into Ukraine, regardless of pilot and have to land them there. At that point it can't be a member of Nato pilot or crew that does a sortie against Russian targets, unless it's some "volunteer" with no connection to Nato member military. But of course I don't know the "rules". It all seems very strange.

Elon Musk seems to agree with that part: Neutral Oil Neutral Gas If you paid a 100% extra excise tax on the portion of oil and gas payments that went to the Russians, and that extra tax went to Ukraine...at least you could claim you were neutral with regard to your fuel use.

That's a tough one because while I am pretty emphatically for free speech, within limits that of course I would have opinions on defining, clearly the Russian government is suppressing free speech for their political opponents and citizens well inside those limits, and just as clearly for their own purposes. ...so why should we allow them the free speech they disallow others? On the other hand how would we know that they are lying if we only hear it through restrictive filters?

The damage in Chernobyl will outlive us all.

So what is the best way to ensure that Russia's oil and gas sector suffers, and suffers most immediately? We are approaching a shoulder season where the need for heating and cooling is reduced, but also when reserves have been reduced and when it normally is made up. Prices will inevitably rise. How do we reduce this benefit to Russia? How do we, as a coalition in this economic war, share the pain? Ideally we would increase, not decrease, taxes on fossil fuels to decrease demand which unfortunately seems fairly inelastic with price. Can our economies handle it? How much reduction in consumption can we handle? How quickly? Something we should be doing anyway, even without a Putin. I think a combination of release of reserves, temporary increase in production, and rationing and/or tax increases are in order.