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Is Iran Building a Nuke?


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I can only post this enquiry on this Forum, as I am pretty confused by some of the war mongering that is going on in the name of counter terrorism.

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/04/the-coming-war-with-iran/

 

Last year, I recall hearing on BBC Radio 4, UK, that it would take Iran 10 years to enrich the Uranium that they had. Within the course of a year, it seems that Iran are preparing a nuclear warhead.

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2010-02/19/content_9474738.htm

 

My question is, to the members of this Forum: how much enriched Uranium would be required for Iran to build their 'Axis of Evil' warhead? And how much would be needed for their warhead?

 

Are we going to war on another pretext?

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Jimmy; The amount of Uranium, I really don't know, suppose it would have to do with desired explosive power. However Uranium is not a rare element and easy to access. The problems for medicine or warheads is in the enrichment, which the authorities had believed, was a problem for Iran, getting past 10%. As I understand it once they figured out how to get past that 10% (claiming 20, now) getting to 80 or 90% enrichment is not that difficult, well with range for a bomb...

 

I'm not sure what your angle is on 'War Mongering', but what is feared in the US Government and assume in the UK, is what other nations in the middle east will do, possibly many trying to develop their own Nuclear Weapons, an arms race, so to speak...

 

Ahmadinejad made the nuclear claim in Tehran's central Azadi Square, where the president told a huge crowd of flag-waving supporters that "we have the capability to enrich uranium more than 20 percent or even 80 percent," a level that would be nearly high enough to produce a nuclear bomb, even though Tehran says that is not its intent. [/Quote]

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/11/AR2010021100456.html

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People where getting worried about them possibley having nuclear weapons mainly because Iran had made it very clear they want to wipe Isralie of the face of the planet! People are worried that if they ever get nuclear weapons, then they'll use them against Isralie.

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Jimmy; The amount of Uranium, I really don't know, suppose it would have to do with desired explosive power. However Uranium is not a rare element and easy to access. The problems for medicine or warheads is in the enrichment, which the authorities had believed, was a problem for Iran, getting past 10%. As I understand it once they figured out how to get past that 10% (claiming 20, now) getting to 80 or 90% enrichment is not that difficult, well with range for a bomb...

 

I'm not sure what your angle is on 'War Mongering', but what is feared in the US Government and assume in the UK, is what other nations in the middle east will do, possibly many trying to develop their own Nuclear Weapons, an arms race, so to speak...

 

 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/11/AR2010021100456.html

 

jackson - thanks for your answer. I belong to the generation that remembers the quote that Iraq had their weapons of mass destruction trained on the UK and were ready to launch within 45 minutes. I also remember the healthy debate we then had in this country and the decision that was made to stop Iraq in their tracks. Then...


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People where getting worried about them possibley having nuclear weapons mainly because Iran had made it very clear they want to wipe Isralie of the face of the planet! People are worried that if they ever get nuclear weapons, then they'll use them against Isralie.

 

Horza - yes I know this is the fear. However, we are assuming that the Iranians are actually insane and willing to disappear in a puff of nuclear smoke by Israeli missiles fired from the nuclear Dolphin class submarines and from the rest of the Western world. Or is it more likely that there will be limited warfare in Iran and that we Western forces will have to commit to regime change and sell off the surplus oil and gas reserves in Iran to benefit them in the future? Cynical perhaps...

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Horza - yes I know this is the fear. However, we are assuming that the Iranians are actually insane and willing to disappear in a puff of nuclear smoke by Israeli missiles fired from the nuclear Dolphin class submarines and from the rest of the Western world. Or is it more likely that there will be limited warfare in Iran and that we Western forces will have to commit to regime change and sell off the surplus oil and gas reserves in Iran to benefit them in the future? Cynical perhaps...

 

 

 

I totally agree with what your saying, they would have to be mad to attack Israel (with nukes or otherwise). But having openly said they'd would like to destroy them, that maybe a sign that they'd go through with it...

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Fundamentally, for Iran it is irrelevant whether they can make a nuke or not. All that matters is that they convince the West, and more importantly their Arab neighbors, that they have the capacity. This would give them enormous "street-cred" in the Moslem world, the leadership of which they are ever seeking. Israel is only a side-show in this ridiculous pissing-contest that the Iranians have been holding water for years to win.

 

They will not likely have the capacity for decades, but may bluff their way into a showdown, which they believe they have the cahones to win. Fortunately, their security is as porous as a seive. We know what they're up to, hence the two major military forces present to their east and west. So we (Westerners) hold all the cards, and can call their bluff.

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Fundamentally, for Iran it is irrelevant whether they can make a nuke or not. All that matters is that they convince the West, and more importantly their Arab neighbors, that they have the capacity. This would give them enormous "street-cred" in the Moslem world, the leadership of which they are ever seeking. Israel is only a side-show in this ridiculous pissing-contest that the Iranians have been holding water for years to win.

 

They will not likely have the capacity for decades, but may bluff their way into a showdown, which they believe they have the cahones to win. Fortunately, their security is as porous as a seive. We know what they're up to, hence the two major military forces present to their east and west. So we (Westerners) hold all the cards, and can call their bluff.

 

 

No...It's time for world peace...they are making a threat for a reason

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My question is, to the members of this Forum: how much enriched Uranium would be required for Iran to build their 'Axis of Evil' warhead? And how much would be needed for their warhead?

 

52 kg of 100% pure uranium 235 in a sphere. Less refined uranium would require more mass (eg 400 kg at 20%), but compressing it via explosives will reduce the mass required.

 

Uranium 235 is 0.72% of the isotope in natural uranium, so you'd need a good 8 tons of uranium to get the amount needed, and that's assuming that your refining gets all the U-235.

 

Acquiring the uranium is not the difficult part, it is separating the isotopes that is difficult.

 

Are we going to war on another pretext?

 

I doubt Obama is going to start said war, although from the propaganda and parallels to Iraq, it does seem we're headed that way eventually. We'll have to see if the sentiment endures till 2012 or 2016.


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Also, the way this works is: if you are developing a nuclear weapon, you are a currently harmless but very large threat in the future. Ripe for a preemptive strike. If you have already developed nuclear weapons, you are a dangerous threat right now, and presumably we're too chicken to now attack.

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I used to be concerned Iran was building a nuke, circa 2004 or so.

 

Now, hard to tell. If they're trying they're not trying very hard. My 2004 self would've expected them to have one by now, if they were really serious.

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I for one, hope Iran builds many nuclear reactors and gets them going in power plants.

 

That would free up there other power sources, like oil, for export and give them a long-term power sources.

 

 

Are they buildings a nuke, probably, will they use it? Probably not. They know what will happen if they do.

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