Your Predictions for 1st Obama Administration

[Pangloss]

What changes do you believe WILL take place during the next four years? Note that I'm not asking you what you believe should happen, I'm asking you what you believe WILL happen. Taking into consideration political realities, economic and social realities, both at home and abroad, what do you think Obama and the Democratically-controlled Congress will actually accomplish?

 

I'll start off with my own predictions:

 

- Assault weapons ban

- Ending "don't ask don't tell" (75% of Americans now support the idea of gays in the military, versus 45% in 1993) (this requires congressional approval, btw)

- An end to the ban on embryonic stem cell research

- Closing of Guantanamo Bay

- Some sort of sweeping health care reform that reduces or eliminates the number of people who have no coverage

- Some sort of sweeping immigration reform involving greater security and a path to citizenship for those already here illegally

- Some sort of sweeping fix for the current financial aid crisis in education

 

And I hope some sort of progress on balancing the budget.

 

Some things I do NOT think will happen:

- Gay marriage

- Legalization of marijuana

- An end to affirmative action

- Complete withdrawal from Iraq before 2011

 

What do you all think?

[iNow]

What changes do you believe WILL take place during the next four years?

I think we're all going to get older. That's about all I am certain about. After that, who knows? Lots of investment into energy, though, I can tell you that.

 

 

Some things I do NOT think will happen:

- Gay marriage

 

I don't know what role Obama will or will not play on this, but I can see changes being implemented on this before the end of '09. Too many hornets nests rattled with Prop 8 and similar. The constitutional arguments against it are solid, and there is precendent with interracial marriage. That wasn't accepted by the majority when passed, either.

[ecoli]

- Some sort of sweeping health care reform that reduces or eliminates the number of people who have no coverage

- Some sort of sweeping immigration reform involving greater security and a path to citizenship for those already here illegally

- Some sort of sweeping fix for the current financial aid crisis in education

 

And I hope some sort of progress on balancing the budget.

... aren't some of those things incompatible? Meaning, lots of government spending isn't exactly conducive to balancing the budget.

 

I'm convinced that balancing the budget will never happen because it has never and will never be a priority... just 'let the future handle it.' When economy is doing ok, we aren't thinking about how much we owe. When times are rough, they say we have more important issues to deal with.

 

If Obama wanted to make a real impact in US history, he'd sponsor a bill making it illegal for congress to approve a nonbalanced budget (coincidentally, Ron Paul has authored such bills, but they never seem to make it out of committee... I wonder why a congressional committee wouldn't want to restrict the amount of money they're allowed to spend).

[Riogho]

I don't know what role Obama will or will not play on this, but I can see changes being implemented on this before the end of '09. Too many hornets nests rattled with Prop 8 and similar. The constitutional arguments against it are solid, and there is precendent with interracial marriage. That wasn't accepted by the majority when passed, either.

 

The only time I remember any of them saying much of anything on this issue was during the VP-Debate, one of the questions was on Gay Marriage and of course SP was ultra-against it(she talked straight to the american people on that one), but Joe avoided the question at first talking about giving gays hospital visitation rights and such, but when asked directly is your administration in favor of gay marraige he said 'no'.

 

Of course, this is Good ol' Joe Biden, so take what he says with a grain of salt.

[Pangloss]

Obama is opposed to gay marriage as well. Like all politicians with national constituencies he supports civil unions instead. Even if you see that as a ruse to get elected, it says a lot about where the people stand on the issue.

[ParanoiA]

Funny, the list of stuff cited not likely to happen is the stuff I find more important than the list of stuff cited likely to happen.

 

But I think I agree with the analysis. Sad as it is.

 

By the way, don't ask don't tell is more appropriate. In the military, why is your sexual orientation of any relevance whatsoever? Homo or hetero, we aren't using sex to kill our enemy.......right?

[npts2020]

Will happen: Unprecedented amounts of money handed over to business interests in form of loans and bailouts. Judges at all levels appointed who favor business interests over societal and individual interests except when absolutely compelled not to. Continuation of wars on terror, drugs, illegal immigration and anything else we can make enough people paranoid about to siphon big $$$$$ out of the federal government for. The budget deficit will increase. None of the chronic problems of the world conflict, famine, pestilence etc. will be solved.

 

Might happen: Some reduction in dependence on oil for an energy source. Some reduction of the chronic problems mentioned above. More transparency in government. More investment in science, especially energy, materials, and health. A plan for national health care.

 

Will not happen: A comprehensive listing of business ethics required to be followed by every corporate entity, individual, or country trading with or in America. Reduction of the military budget. Significant transferral of the tax burden from individual income taxes. Economics becomes enough of a science to accurately predict future events to the point of being able to avoid calmities such as our current predicament......and I almost forgot end of the world with a successful start of the LHC.

[Mr Skeptic]

I'd add to the list, some progress with global warming issues and green energy. Not enough to fix anything, perhaps, but at least we will be trying.

[Sisyphus]

 

By the way, don't ask don't tell is more appropriate. In the military, why is your sexual orientation of any relevance whatsoever? Homo or hetero, we aren't using sex to kill our enemy.......right?

 

"Don't ask, don't tell" refers to the policy by which homosexuals are not allowed in the military, but the military is not allowed to initiate any investigation. So essentially you can be gay as long as you make a token effort to lie about it, and they're happy to let you continue lying. Ending that policy would indeed make it officially of no relevance whatsoever, which is really what it should be.

[ParanoiA]

"Don't ask, don't tell" refers to the policy by which homosexuals are not allowed in the military, but the military is not allowed to initiate any investigation. So essentially you can be gay as long as you make a token effort to lie about it, and they're happy to let you continue lying. Ending that policy would indeed make it officially of no relevance whatsoever, which is really what it should be.

 

I'm being a little sarcastic though...I prefer a real "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" as in: We don't ask what your orientation is and we don't give a crap so save the energy in telling us. The difference being that currently the definition suggests that you CAN tell us if you're hetero. I want that stricken.

 

I don't want to know what you screw. I'm not sure why anyone would think we need to know what they screw. Weird.

[Sisyphus]

Well, yeah. Agreed.