matter Posted September 2, 2003 Share Posted September 2, 2003 Sorry for the non descriptive subject title but thats all I could say to myself. "LONDON, England (Reuters) -- A giant asteroid is heading for Earth and could hit in 2014, U.S. astronomers have warned British space monitors. But for those fearing Armageddon, don't be alarmed -- the chances of a catastrophic collision are just one in 909,000. Asteroid "2003 QQ47" will be closely monitored over the next two months. Its potential strike date is March 21, 2014, but astronomers say that any risk of impact is likely to decrease as further data is gathered. On impact, it could have the effect of 20 million Hiroshima atomic bombs, a spokesman for the British government's Near Earth Object Information Centre told BBC radio. The Centre issued the warning about the asteroid after the giant rock was first observed in New Mexico by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program. "The Near Earth Object will be observable from Earth for the next two months and astronomers will continue to track it over this period," said Dr Alan Fitzsimmons, one of the expert team advising the Centre. Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the formation of the solar system 4.5 billion years ago. Most are kept at a safe distance from the Earth in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter can nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them plunging towards Earth" http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/09/02/asteroid.reut/index.html I'm not trying to be a scare monger, I'm just nervous. To me it sounds like theyre downplaying it so as not to create an alarm. What if they do the calculations, and they find out theres an even greater chance it will hit? That would kind of suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1917 Posted September 2, 2003 Share Posted September 2, 2003 First of all, one in 909,000 chance of it happening. Think about those odds for a second. Second please dont post a topic with 'oh shit' as the subject, it doesnt do the website any good to have that plastered on the front page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 2, 2003 Author Share Posted September 2, 2003 Sorry. I dont buy the odds though, guess I wanna just see what happens after that two month observation period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaKiri Posted September 2, 2003 Share Posted September 2, 2003 These things happen ALL OF THE TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 2, 2003 Author Share Posted September 2, 2003 MrL_JaKiri said in post #4 :These things happen ALL OF THE TIME. I know they do but this one makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sayonara Posted September 2, 2003 Share Posted September 2, 2003 Why? You can dig a very deep hole in 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dudde Posted September 2, 2003 Share Posted September 2, 2003 correction: 10 1/3 years and if it is going to hit earth, someone will start working on a way to try and destroy or detour it, like in "Armageddon" (that was an awful movie) don't count on being told the truth though if it is, the government doesn't want people thinking they only have 10 years to live;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 3, 2003 Author Share Posted September 3, 2003 Sayonara³ said in post #6 :Why? You can dig a very deep hole in 10 years. lol Dudde said in post #7 :correction: 10 1/3 years and if it is going to hit earth, someone will start working on a way to try and destroy or detour it, like in "Armageddon" (that was an awful movie) don't count on being told the truth though if it is, the government doesn't want people thinking they only have 10 years to live;) I don't think we would be able to detour it. Why would they report on it? Something is fishy. Or I'm just a paranoid dork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1917 Posted September 3, 2003 Share Posted September 3, 2003 Nothing is fishy. They detected an asteroid with a *ultra minor* chance of hitting earth, so they write a story about our immpending doom - and the the odds are STILL 1 to 909,000. Ignore it, and move on with your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 3, 2003 Author Share Posted September 3, 2003 greg1917 said in post #9 :Nothing is fishy. They detected an asteroid with a *ultra minor* chance of hitting earth, so they write a story about our immpending doom - and the the odds are STILL 1 to 909,000. Ignore it, and move on with your life. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kedas Posted September 3, 2003 Share Posted September 3, 2003 We will probably be told when we are already dead I can't remember when it was I think about 2years back there was an near miss (space distances) but it was only in the news after it passed earth. reason: it was very hard to find it earlier because it came from the direction of the sun. They only found it a few day's before it passed, if I remember correctly. edit: found it http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/03/19/asteroid.blindside/index.html and http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/asteroids_miss_020319.html It's funny that "Of the objects that have come closer, only one is bigger" That this is the one we missed seeing one more thing: If there are coming more asteroids in our direction than we statistically calculate then this can mean two things. 1) We are very bad in calulating the statistical chance. OR 2) We have very unfriendly neighbours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 3, 2003 Author Share Posted September 3, 2003 "But don't tell the grandchildren to head to the hills just yet. The odds of a collision are currently 1 in 10 million and could become even more remote with more refined calculations." :haha: If I'm not mistaken the odds keep gettin worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blike Posted September 3, 2003 Share Posted September 3, 2003 http://www.msnbc.com/news/960340.asp?0cv=TB10&cp1=1 Risk completely eliminated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kedas Posted September 3, 2003 Share Posted September 3, 2003 Just keep in mind that there are diff. stat. calculations. Chance for collistion of that rock or chance that a rock collide within X time. Also keep in mind that the chance zero doesn't exist only very unlikely exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 3, 2003 Author Share Posted September 3, 2003 Thanks blike. I was wrong to be paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kedas Posted September 3, 2003 Share Posted September 3, 2003 matter said in post #15 :Thanks blike. I was wrong to be paranoid. This has notting to do with being paranoid, it's al about chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 3, 2003 Author Share Posted September 3, 2003 I understood the chances, but I still thought there was a conspiracy and it was gonna hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1917 Posted September 3, 2003 Share Posted September 3, 2003 its a fairly innocuous story; what link did you make to a conspiracy? As MrL_Jakirir said, these things happen very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter Posted September 3, 2003 Author Share Posted September 3, 2003 I dunno. Me being stupid = paranoid. The article just sounded weird and I was havin a weird day. I thought we were all gonna die. Edited by fafalone: References to illicit use of illegal drugs are not appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blike Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 lol no worries man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YT2095 Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 Unless of course another smaller object hits it and sends it right at us? alot can happen in 10.3 years at those speeds! Muhahahahaaa sleep well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sayonara Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 That would be one hell of a trick shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YT2095 Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 The odd part is, and I expect it`s something to do with the Human Psyche, that we`ll see a number that huge (probabilities) and no matter HOW HUGE the odds are against, some will always worry, I say this, because it doesn`t just apply to the BAD things, No Sir!. who playes the national lottery here? the UK lotto is a 1 in 14 million chance of winning, and yet millions of people will still play AND expect to win (else they wouldn`t play I guess?). fact is (myself included) that even though I KNOW the odds, I still get a bit excited when the numbers come around and no matter how many times I`ve lost in the past, I still play? I strongly suspect it`s something to do with our inability to comprehend such VAST numbers above what you see when it`s writen as 1:14,000,000 against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glider Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 That's why a good way of thinking about it is that, there is a greater probability of your dying of a heart attack whilst watching the lottery program, than winning the lottery. It works for me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YT2095 Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 You`re exactly right! (in my case espescialy, I`m already on heart medication and I`m only young) and yet people seem to be "sellective" about the odds and although what you say is 100% true, many will still go out and eat all the wrong foods because THAT PARTICULAR probability somehow doesn`t apply to them hardly makes any sense at all really ? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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