Not the probability that life exists on Earth. The probability that we observe life on Earth

 

That probability is of course 1

 

Well, yes, the probability of anything given it has occurred is one. But that doesn't tell us anything, which is why your Bayes model returns just returns its input: you haven't told it anything. Check out that Bayes wikipedia article.

Yes that was the point

Yes that was the point

 

Sorry, i meant to say that while your flawed Bayes model might find no change, others don't.

 

According to your interpretation, on the cancer at 65 example, knowing someone is 65 doesn't change the probability of someone having cancer because we've already observed the person is 65.

Empirically speaking:

Either et's exist or they don't so the a priori probability is 0.5 = 50%

This just means "we dont know one way or the other".

 

By Bayes Theorem:

Probability that ets exist given that we observe that life arose very early on earth = 0.5*probability that we observe that life arose very early on earth given that et's exist/probability that we observe that life arose very early on earth

You haven't addressed any of my points, you've just repeated yourself.

 

Did you check out any of the links that i gave: that might help us understand each other a bit more?

I did not repeat myself

Nor did you make sense; how can an unknown = 1?

Nor did you make sense; how can an unknown = 1?

Sorry my mistake.

Empirically speaking:

Either et's exist or they don't so the a priori probability is 0.5 = 50%

This just means "we dont know one way or the other".

 

By Bayes Theorem:

Probability that ets exist given that we observe life on earth = 0.5*probability that we observe life on earth given that et's exist/probability that we observe life on earth

Empirically speaking:

Either et's exist or they don't so the a priori probability is 0.5 = 50%

This just means "we dont know one way or the other".

 

By Bayes Theorem:

Probability that ets exist given that we observe that life arose very early on earth = 0.5*probability that we observe that life arose very early on earth given that et's exist/probability that we observe that life arose very early on earth

 

OK. The first bit is identical: i raised an objection to this in post #23 you may (or may not) wish to address.

 

As for the second part, by moving the event forward in time you have still not addressed my problem. That is why i implore you that we move to the cancer at 65 example: if you talk me through how you understand that you will either realise your error, or you will show me my error.

Edited August 1, 20169 yr by Prometheus