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https://www.theatlantic.com/science/2026/08/el-nino-effects/688429/?gift=43H6YzEv1tnFbOn4MRsWYhe5nEFgk7C87XxiXaHSqXw&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

This El Niño Will Be Unlike Any in the Past Eight Decades

Die-offs and floods have started already, a prelude to supercharged storms and droughts.  

By Joshua Partlow

In the middle of the Pacific Ocean, along the equator, scientists have drawn a box. It’s a big box, two-thirds the size of China, yet hardly anyone lives inside it. This rectangular swath of open ocean is monitored by satellites and a network of moored buoys that measure minute changes in the temperature of the water, with an eye toward anomalies. Every few years or so, driven by changing winds and currents, the water temperature in this part of the ocean starts to rise; even a half degree Celsius above normal over months warrants a designation that an El Niño phase has begun. That’s enough warming to unleash floods and fires, drought and famine, around the world. The box is called Niño 3.4. Right now, it’s hot in the box.(...)

...Most of the world experiences El Niño’s ripple effects as the heat building up in the equatorial Pacific radiates into the atmosphere and around the globe. This means great gouts of rain in supercharged storms in some places; in other areas, crop-killing dry spells that can extend for months. Along the Pacific Coast of South America, torrential rains and landslides have forced the temporary closure of a main route to Machu Picchu, in Peru; deadly floods have swept through arid regions of northern Chile. Countries such as India and Ethiopia are enduring some of their driest summers on record. El Niños tend to mean more rainfall across the southern United States and drier stretches across a band in the North. Strong El Niños can mean record-breaking heat, and this one is shaping up to be unlike any catalogued in the past eight decades. A 2-degree-Celsius increase in the Niño 3.4 box typically earns the title of “Super El Niño”; we’re already past that threshold, and experts project that the warming could peak at roughly twice as high.

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

The box is called Niño 3.4. Right now, it’s hot in the box.

That's bad for ducks, right? 🤔

This is as today :

Trouble if the area east of Japan moves east, and the Galapagos goes west.

16 hours ago, sethoflagos said:

That's bad for ducks, right? 🤔

Yes, that's the principal conclusion of all the research. Ducks are totally f-ed. NAAM, the National Association for the Advancement of Mallards, was the primary funding source. 🙃

7 hours ago, TheVat said:

Yes, that's the principal conclusion of all the research. Ducks are totally f-ed. NAAM, the National Association for the Advancement of Mallards, was the primary funding source. 🙃

Good thing we got audio of them for our I-phone ringtone while they are still around. Eh? 🤪

14 minutes ago, npts2020 said:

Good thing we got audio of them for our I-phone ringtone while they are still around. Eh? 🤪

In memoriam, Nettapus auritus

Denver Zoo Conservation Alliance

Lucy the African Pygmy Goose - Denver Zoo Conservation Al...

Where They Hang Out At the zoo:  in Bird World In the wild: swamps, marshes, shallow lakes, slow moving rivers and other bodies of water in Africa Favorite Foods At the zoo: greens, specially formulat

Apparently a species of Least Concern with the IUCN. Quack!

Shy and secretive not much is known about this species social behavior.

Never found them shy myself. Perhaps these people just don't get invited to the right parties 🦆🦆🦆

Edited September 1Sep 1 by sethoflagos
sp

How it affects us where I am in Australia appears to involve the Indian Ocean Dipole. When that lines up one way it moderates el Nino's influence. The other way it boosts it. Modeling currently points to positive IOD - the direction that boosts the drier and warmer outlook.

I expect a lot of increased personal effort towards reducing bushfire risks - and I'm feeling my age...

Not that I've been stinting on reducing bushfire risks; it never really stops. Installed sprinklers last year with a dedicated pump and water tank (that I wish was larger) and potential to use pump and hoses from another tank, which water does get used and may not stay filled. Mowing and brushcutting and careful burning of small areas at a time before it gets too dangerous will be followed by much raking as eucalyptus tree shed leaves in abundance - it can sound like it is raining. Still not as bad as when the leaves are on fire...

And if conditions are considered extreme enough we will be ordered to leave (we don't have to but we would forego the option to call on emergency services and expect any aid... if they aren't overwhelmed anyway) and no-one will be here to start the pumps. Insurance is getting very expensive.

The worst drought - and fire risk - may not even be this Summer but the following one, with less water availability and a more desiccated environment. Even without these exceptional conditions droughts often last many years and the economic as well as environmental impacts are strong and pervasive.

Edited September 2Sep 2 by Ken Fabian

On 8/31/2026 at 6:33 PM, npts2020 said:

Good thing we got audio of them for our I-phone ringtone while they are still around. Eh? 🤪

That could come in handy.

Temember the time that giant alien artifact/intelligence came calling with whale 'sounds', and we had to go back in time, to bring back a whale ( as they had become extinct ), in a large transparent aluminum tank, in a Klingon spaceship ?

Oh wait ... that was 1986's Star Trek; The Voyage Home ...