String Poll Revisited

[Martin]

Earlier we had two chances to predict about string research, and stash the predictions away to check later and see who got closest.

One worked out this way: the question was

"By the gauge described here, where do you think string research will be in two years?"

And the guesses we got were these:

 

Guesser         M/B index for July 2007

Severian              620
dave                  550
DQW                   540
me                    500
J.C. MacSwell         400

 

The index we are guessing here is the keyword M-theory/brane papers published July 2006 through June 2007, a number which (if past years are any guide) will be easy to get from the Harvard data base

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/ads_abstracts.html

using this search form

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/physics_service.html

 

Here is a link to the earlier thread.

http://scienceforums.net/forums/showthread.php?t=12595

 

If anybody else wants to add their guess, it would be cordially welcome. Instead of people guessing anonymously, I think it makes it more interesting when people sign on to their guesses, as those 5 did above.

So when July 2007 comes around we can check and see who came closest.

 

I'm hoping to get some NOT-ANONYMOUS guesses in response to the other question, which was based on the Stanford library topcites list

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/2004/'>http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/2004/annual.shtml'>http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/2004/'>http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/2004/annual.shtml

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/2004/'>http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/2004/

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/

 

How many recent string papers will get 125+ citations in 2005?

 

Here is the earlier thread, that explains it

http://scienceforums.net/forums/showthread.php?t=12618

Remember that "recent" in this case means published in the last 5 years.

So I'm going to sharpen up the poll and make it PUBLIC, rather than anonymous, in the hopes of being able to record guessers and guesses as in the other case. Then next year, when the list will come out (if past years are a guide to what to expect), we can fish up this thread and see whose guess was closest.

So here is the refurbished version.

----------------------------------------

How many recent string papers will get 125+ citations in 2005?

 

Like the good old days: 10 or more

End of a slump: 6 to 9

Slump continues: 2 to 5

Down the tubes: 1 or none.

[Martin]

here's a quote from the earlier thread

Here's how it worked out in past years.

 

In 1999 there were FIFTEEN highly cited recent string papers.

In 2003 there were FOUR.

In 2004 there were FOUR highly cited recent string papers.

How many do you guess there will be in 2005?

 

a given research paper's citation count is how many other scholarly papers cited it as a reference. the citation count tends to be used as a rough indicator how what are the really interesting important papers.

they are the ones that other papers refer to a lot.

Severian has pointed out that this measure of a paper's importance is imperfect. But I dont know any other recognized quantitative measure.

Anyway it is another measure of string research activity which we can make some guesses about.

 

I arbitrarily took "recent" to be from the past 5 years, so for the 2005 citations we will be counting highly cited papers that appeared in

2001 through 2005 inclusive.

 

Personally, I think the most likely number of highly cited papers for 2005 is FOUR---just like in 2003 and 2004. So I will choose "Slump continues"

[ed84c]

Hopefully we will see the end of this mystical world of fantasy, and get back to discovering proper science

 

BTW how do you see who voted for what, i tried to on the UK election poll.

[JaKiri]

Hopefully we will see the end of this mystical world of fantasy, and get back to discovering proper science

 

It's an interesting enough diversion, and, of course, you wouldn't be saying this had something come out of it.

 

BTW how do you see who voted for what, i tried to on the UK election poll.

 

"View Poll results". Of course, it either has to be turned on (or you to be a moderator) for that to work.

[ed84c]

"View Poll results". Of course, it either has to be turned on (or you to be a moderator) for that to work.

 

 

No, maybe i mistunderstood the feature, but you can only see what was voted for in what proprotions, not who voted for each one.

[JaKiri]

No, maybe i mistunderstood the feature, but you can only see what was voted for in what proprotions, not who [/i'] voted for each one.

 

(or you to be a moderator)

 

It's this, in this instance.

 

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3451/image6iz.jpg

[Martin]

Hello JaKiri and Ed from Northwich

 

with a public poll like this one if you want to see who voted

you look on the poll results where it gives the number like 1

where you will see a LINE UNDER THE NUMBER

and you move the rodent over to it and click

[Martin]

Hey this is great! We already have 3 responses. Please contribute your estimate, other people! Would be nice to have a spread.

 

So far, in alphabetical order, it is

 

Ed84c     1 or none
me         2-5
Yourda     2-5

[Martin]

I checked back in the earlier thread and saw that Dave predicted "slump continues, <5". Barring his objection i will simply transfer that prediction and merge it in here with the "slump continues, 2-5".

 

So far, in alphabetical order, these are

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

Dave       2-5
Ed84c     1 or none
me         2-5
Yourda     2-5

[J.C.MacSwell]

I'll guess 2!

[Martin]

MacSwell that sounds like a very astute guess to me, but to balance yours I am going to refine my prediction from 2-5 to 5 (the maximum in the range). I think we should spread out so that one of us has a chance to nail it.

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

Dave       2-5
Ed84c     1 or none
MacSwell  2
me         5
Yourda     2-5

 

Dave or Yourda, if either of you check this thread, would either of you care to refine your prediction---which is the range 2-5---down to a specific number?

 

Anyone else want to record a guess?

[ydoaPs]

3 :message must be more than three characters, so i am adding this bit:

[Martin]

thank you Yourda,

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

Dave       2-5
Ed84c     1 or none
MacSwell  2
me         5
Yourda     3

 

In a sense we have the possibilities well covered, haven't we?

But remember in 1999 this citations number was 15. So it is not completely beyond the realm of possibility that we are all under-estimating.

 

Anyone else want to record a guess?

[Martin]

CPL.Luke just went on record with a guess of "1 or none", joining Ed84c in that prediction. I will update:

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

CPL.Luke     1 or none
Dave         2-5
Ed84c        1 or none
MacSwell     2
me           5
Yourda       3

 

 

Remember in 1999 this citations number was 15. So it is not completely beyond the realm of possibility that we are all under-estimating.

 

Anyone else want to record a guess?

[JaKiri]

Hello JaKiri and Ed from Northwich

 

with a public poll like this one if you want to see who voted

you look on the poll results where it gives the number like 1

where you will see a LINE UNDER THE NUMBER

and you move the rodent over to it and click

 

I fairly obviously know how to find out who voted for what.

[Severian]

My guess is 4

[Martin]

Severian just guessed 4. I will update:

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

CPL.Luke     1 or none
Dave         2-5
Ed84c        1 or none
MacSwell     2
me           5
Severian    4
Yourda       3

 

 

Remember in 1999 this citations number was 15. So it could be we are all under-estimating.

 

Severian, thanks. Michael Peskin (who is the most visible person involved in Stanford's TopCites website) is a personal acquaintance of yours I believe. If anyone could deliver the horse's mouth word on the HEP citations derby it would be your friend Michael?

 

Maybe it is time to close this batch of forecasts.

We will check back early next year. This year the TopCites 2004 list was posted in February (2005) so it did not take them very long to compile it!

But there is no set time for it to come out, so we dont know, and they could always get their librarian budget cut and not have the manpower or for some other reason just decide not to compile the list! So we wait and see.

 

I will go update the post where I gathered our guesses, and add Severian's.

 

Another time i would use a lower cutoff than 125, so that there would be more numerical spread and more elbow-room for divergent opinion in the guessing, but I had no prior way of telling the right cutoff this time.

[Martin]

WHOAH! We can't close the gates yet! I just checked the poll and there are 3 more people. Bettina, JaKiri, K9-47G, in alphabetical order, I will update:

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

Bettina      1 or none
CPL.Luke     1 or none
Dave         2-5
Ed84c        1 or none
Jakiri       2-5
K9-47G       2-5
MacSwell     2
me           5
Severian     4
Yourda       3

 

 

Remember in 1999 this citations number was 15. So it could be we are all under-estimating.

 

BTW thanks everybody! I would have felt pretty let down and silly if there'd been no response, but this is great!

[Severian]

Severian' date=' thanks. Michael Peskin (who is the most visible person involved in Stanford's TopCites website) is a personal acquaintance of yours I believe. If anyone could deliver the horse's mouth word on the HEP citations derby it would be your friend Michael?

[/quote']

 

I will see him next week, so I might just ask him....

[Martin]

I will see him next week, so I might just ask him....

 

reaction 1. delighted you will be seeing Peskin. Impressive guy, also entertaining website (like the quote about the monkey and the Chinese sage)

 

reaction 2. URK! maybe we shouldn't let him know we are interested! maybe it's like quantum mechanics and being observed changes behavior!

Shhhh. Let's pretend we aren't watching.

 

reaction 3. When are they going to update THIS page

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/library/topcites/

It only goes up through year 2003. When will they complete the other TopCites stuff for 2004 and have Michael Peskin's review and all? Thx Michael.

 

Here is that classic of a physicist homepage

http://www.slac.stanford.edu/~mpeskin/

that has Peskin peering over the top of the Higgs Hunter's Guide

and the quote about the monkey.

[bascule]

Screw you pessamists! 6!

[Martin]

Bascule has just joined us. Welcome Bascule, it's nice to have a wide range of forecasts. I will add yours to the list. Since it is alphabetical, your guess will be at the top.

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

Bascule      6
Bettina      1 or none
CPL.Luke     1 or none
Dave         2-5
Ed84c        1 or none
JaKiri       2-5
K9-47G       2-5
MacSwell     2
me           5
Severian     4
Yourda       3

 

 

Remember in 1999 this citations number was 15. So it could be we are all under-estimating.

 

==============

 

BTW Severian, you mentioned that you would be seeing Mike Peskin this week. That could mean at Toronto! If there (or wherever) have a good time at the conference. If it is the Toronoto conference it would be great if you'd start a thread here to jot down some impressions!

[Martin]

Screw you pessamists!

 

Bascule please do not be churlish.

 

People are not trying to be optimistic or pessimistic. The aim is to make a realistic, hopefully accurate, prediction. It's not a place to indulge in team spirit, or pro/anti feelings.

[Spyman]

I take a chance on 7.

[Martin]

List updated to include Spyman

 

OUR PREDICTIONS OF HOW MANY RECENT STRING PAPERS WILL BE CITED 125+ TIMES IN 2005

 

Guesser  # recent string papers to get 125 or more citations in 2005

Bascule      6
Bettina      1 or none
CPL.Luke     1 or none
Dave         2-5
Ed84c        1 or none
JaKiri       2-5
K9-47G       2-5
MacSwell     2
me           5
Severian     4
Spyman       7
Yourda       3

 

 

==============

 

A few days back, Severian mentioned that he would be seeing Mike Peskin this week. That could be at this year's big string conference in Toronto. I wouldn't call either Sev or Peskin a string theorist.

 

But I think that both of them have an interest in phenomenology, which studies how you take some theory and derive testable predictions from it, so that meaningful experiments can be designed to check the theory.

 

So even though neither one is in stringy research per se I could picture either of them attending the String 05 conference this week. here is the URL----has some pretty snazzy graphics, and lists all the main speakers.

 

http://www.fields.utoronto.ca/programs/scientific/04-05/string-theory/strings2005/index.html

 

http://www.fields.utoronto.ca/programs/scientific/04-05/string-theory/strings2005/speakers.html

 

(this is not a plug for string theory, just thought some might be interested)