Moontanman

2 hours ago, Ken Fabian said:

As it happens I have seen things that I have no explanation for - a smallish globe of light that appeared to be low altitude, moving slowly in a straight line, then veering in another direction, well before drones were a thing. I could not even guess what but there was enough twilight that any balloon should have been visible. I didn't know anyone else who saw it but a mention of unexplained lights in the sky in a local paper followed. If it was an object it appeared less than 0.5m diameter. There were clouds beyond it.

Another time - horizontal grouped rows of coloured lights towards or over the ocean, some "dripping" white lights. It was an area off the coast used for naval exercises. Very strange.

In neither case did I think I was seeing alien vehicles.

I didn't for a moment think aliens or hallucination - these were things that were visible - but possibly the latter were some kind of mirage-like reflection off stratified atmosphere, reflections of something on the water shooting flares? The former may have been some kind of extremely rare but natural phenomena.

Hallucination still seems more credible than ailen craft, as does secret human technology but extra terrestrial aliens with physics defying technology buzzing about with no clear purpose seems even less credible than that.

How many people - otherwise competent - have claimed direct communication with God, including visions? A lot more than have seen unexplained things in the sky I would expect.

But yes, it seems worthwhile undertaking some kinds of investigation to explain what people are seeing - and being alarmed by.

You do realize that there are sighting that include multiple independent radars, multiple independent witnesses, photos, videos, physical effects, interactions with both civilian and military aircraft, active influence of nuclear missile silos, lights or hallucination do not even come close to covering them. Suggesting that UFOs are just what some folks claim... like gods and angels, is somewhat less than an accurate appraisal of the situation.  

Yet... I guess until one crashes into the white house no concrete evidence exists. In other words, until aliens decide to let us know we cannot know.   

These discussions are very frustrating, some people would not consider any data short of a alien spacecraft crashing into times square sufficient evidence while others seem to think any odd flashing light is an alien spacecraft. The reality is there is a huge volume of data that needs to be looked at in a way that manages to consider what we have and apply some sort of analysis that manages to ride the line somewhere between the extremes.  

6 hours ago, swansont said:

No concrete evidence means just that - there is no concrete evidence, and you can’t draw the conclusion that it’s aliens.

I do not suggest drawing a conclusion, I suggest not dismissing the data we have out of hand and further study.

6 hours ago, swansont said:

 

You seem to have admitted that there isn’t any conclusive evidence.

I honestly wonder what conclusive evidence would be, At one time there was no conclusive evidence that lighting wasn't caused by gods or that rocks fell from the sky. Did dismissing those things give us better understanding?  

6 hours ago, swansont said:

Since not everyone is familiar with that, they might arrive at a different explanation.

This is true but it doesn't justify saying all sightings are probably those things either. I have seen this "explanation" used to dismiss sightings that were obviously not "Venus" in a temperature inversion as that very thing just because the people involved didn't know better. 

6 hours ago, swansont said:

Nothing anthropocentric about the limitations of relativity, and the vast distances of interstellar space.

Neither relativity or the vast distances of space preclude interstellar travel.  

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

The IPM report even successfully identified the creature seen by the three young women. The place where the creature was spotted was the home of Luiz Antônio de Paula, about 30 years old and intellectually disabled, who lived there with his parents and family. As de Paula was nonverbal, locals had nicknamed him Mudinho, which means "little mute." Mudinho was known to the neighbors to spend his time crouching and examining small objects he found, like cigarette butts and sticks. There are photographs of him floating around the Portuguese language Internet — very skinny, hunched over, squatting as he studies a twig, and apparently wearing a diaper. At last report, Mudinho still lives there to this day, and still continues his favorite activity. The lead author of the IPM report, Lt. Col. Lúcio Carlos Pereira, wrote:

The more probable hypothesis is that this citizen, probably dirty due to the rains and crouching next to a wall, was mistaken by three terrified girls for a 'space creature'.

As Mudinho did live there, and that was his typical behavior, then for the young women to have seen a space creature there would have to have been two such beings — the known one, Mudinho, and the hypothetical one, an alien — but as they reported only one skinny humanoid crouching in the mud, and not two, we are left with no rational support for there having been any beings present other than Mudinho.

Today, the three women do still give interviews about their experience. There is one very important detail that has changed since their original story: Today, they say they knew Mudinho well, and had even given him cigarettes in the past; so of course they would not have mistaken him for an alien. However, in their original reports from 1996, they said they didn't know him, and took him for a devil when they saw him. It's one more example of stories changing and growing to fit a changing and growing narrative that gains mass traction in pop culture. Everyone wants to be in on it, and everyone wants to be seen as credible and correct.

I agree with @Moontanman that there is a body of cases that do appear to represent truly anomalous and unexplained aerial events, and these may at some point turn out to be some fascinating atmospheric phenomenon that expands our view of things.  They should not be dismissed, and should be studied.  But these Stanton Friedman generated narratives are mostly self-promoting flapdoodle and just piss poor science.  As Dunning notes:

 Friedman's whole career, in fact, consisted of compiling bits and pieces of poor-quality evidence, mainly unverified eyewitness testimony usually taken years or decades after an event; and then composing an original alien visitation story that incorporates all those bits and is presented as the factual account of what happened. He's best known as the original author of the Roswell mythology, in which he worked with a retired mortician named Glenn Dennis. In 1989 — more than four decades after the 1947 Roswell crash was alleged to have happened — Friedman carefully wove together a string of snippets of Dennis' assorted memories of having worked in that town, and created the story we know today of a spaceship crash and small alien bodies being recovered. It was published in 1991, the first time that story even existed. Friedman couldn't have cared less that the things Dennis thought he remembered actually took place over a span of twelve years and had nothing to do with each other; his goal was to craft an original UFO narrative. That was Friedman's thing. That was what he did professionally...

I all fairness i have to say this sighting appears to be a retelling of an event that happened back in the late 50s or early 60s. I'd have to do some digging to be sure but I am pretty sure of it. I read about it in the late 60s when I was in highschool. 

This is an example of the inexplicability of some UFO sightings. Occurring in 1896 this report is simply outrageous! An alien craft 20 feet in diameter and 150 feet in length, three 7 foot tall aliens, attempting to abduct a man riding in a horse and buggy. It reads so matter of fact but it's more like a guy detailing his experiences while drinking shroom tea. 

 https://www.recordnet.com/story/news/2015/03/27/fitzgerald-day-space-aliens-visited/34895899007/

Quote

“We were jogging along quietly when the horse stopped suddenly and gave a snort of terror," Shaw said.

"Looking up we beheld three strange beings. They resembled humans in many respects, but still they were not like anything I had ever seen. They were nearly or quite seven feet high and very slender. ”

These ‘beings’ wore no clothing, Shaw reported. Instead, they were “covered with a natural growth hard to describe. It was not hair, neither was it like feathers, but it was as soft as silk to the touch.”

Shaw sensed the silken strangers meant no harm. “They seemed to take great interest in ourselves, the horse and buggy, and scrutinized everything very carefully."

Shaw approached them.

“Their faces and heads were without hair, the ears were very small, and the nose had the appearance of polished ivory,” Shaw said. Their mouths were tiny, “while the eyes were large and lustrous.”

Shaw added: “They were possessed of a strange and indescribable beauty.”

Ever the newsman, Shaw asked the aliens where they were from. “They seemed not to understand me, but began — well, "warbling" expresses it better than talking.”

Shaw touched one.

“Placing my hand under his elbow (I) pressed gently upward, and lo and behold I lifted him from the ground with scarcely an effort. I should judge that the specific gravity of the creature was less than an ounce.”

Each alien carried a shoulder bag attached to a nozzle. “Every little while one or the other would place the nozzle on his mouth, at which time I heard a sound of escaping gas.”

The guy should have been writing novels, this is HG Wells type stuff! 

These "sightings" are not exactly a modern phenomena! 

https://www.ultius.com/ultius-blog/entry/short-essay-on-the-history-of-ufos-in-the-united-states.html

4 hours ago, swansont said:

“real” being nonzero but still exceedingly small. How big of a balloon would be required to lift the payload to that height, and would you risk doing that knowing that it might or might not get close to any target of interest, and could be shot down well before that happened?

I would imagine the risk is greater from a ground-based bomb in a van, that could be placed in sufficient proximity to a target. A balloon bomb is a threat from a movie writer. 

 

Probably true but is it better to allow foreign adversaries to fly balloons unimpeded over our territory or to shoot them down so that adersarry knows they cannot get away with it even if they try.   

4 hours ago, swansont said:

In a word, yes. The same standard, at least, as any scientific endeavor. Possibly higher, since extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, but certainly not a lower standard of evidence.

Is there a scientific field where “something unusual” is sufficient to draw a definite conclusion?

No one is saying a conclusion must be drawn but outright dismissal, which is what "no concrete evidence" really means, is not science or at least not how I was taught. 

4 hours ago, swansont said:

How do you determine the competence?

The recent balloon adventures uncovered a story related to this

“When the USS New York was sailing towards Iwo Jima in 1945, the crew spotted a silver sphere flying high overhead that seemed to follow the battleship for hours. Concerned that the shiny orb might be a Japanese balloon weapon, the captain ordered it shot down. After the guns failed to score a hit, a navigator realized that they were attacking Venus.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/02/03/japanese-balloon-bombs-world-war/

Good point and justifiable as well but what about those reports that cannot be explained by conventional objects despite a huge amount of evidence? The fact that sighting was so easily explained doesn't have any bearing on the ones that are not.  

4 hours ago, swansont said:

 

Flawed analogy. You and others keep doing the equivalent of insisting that bigfoot exists, and additionally, is anybody saying not to investigate?

Yes, in fact up until recently that is exactly what was being said, for many decades anyone who wanted to investigate was written off as a crazy, careers were destroyed, people in places of trust were told not to report sightings for fear of being labeled as unstable. There is a reason why pilots who were thoughtless enough to say they had seen something extraordinary were often drummed out of the profession or given desk jobs. These things really happened, people were delegated to the crazy pile for just reporting. This was and is wrong, if you can explain them then fine explain them but to discourage people from even looking ito it was simply unconscionable.

The US gov's so called investigations became nothing but an attempt to explain away any sighting by any means. This was why Dr. J. Allen Hynek, who started out working for the air force changed sides and became convinced there was something serious to be studied. 

BTW, I've seen Venus dance around the sky in an early morning temperature inversion, it was an astounding sight. But I was expecting Venus in that area of the sky and i was familiar with the local tendency for temperature inversions so I knew what it was immediately.

Yes it looked very strange but that is no reason to explain away everything as a balloon or Venus in a temperature inversion. Quite often no such explanation exists for even something as mundane as a light in the sky. Very frustrating but no reason to dismiss it out of hand. And sometimes the sighting is so extraordinary that nothing can explain it and yet that is quite often dismissed just as confidently as something that can be explained. 

Just because something can be explained does not mean everything can. 

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

 

https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4853

 

If you want the entire story as told by the UFOlogists, you have a great source. The 2022 documentary Moment of Contact interviews a number of the people who were involved, and presents it as a true case of alien visitation. It also offers a stark example of how these stories grow and change enormously over the years. Original eyewitnesses tend to add story elements, often bridging their own recollections to those of others; new people intrigued at the prospect of some notoriety always "come forward" and claim to have been there; and imaginative authors always, always, always add no end of creative enhancements that, over time, blend in and come to be accepted as part of the standard narrative. The inevitable result is a story full of incredible events, all supported by amazingly trustworthy eyewitnesses, all inexplicable as anything Earthly. Such a tapestry offers fertile soil for any documentary filmmaker. One thing such filmmakers hope you never do is go back and read the original newspaper accounts, because what you tend to discover is that almost nothing particularly interesting happened — until later years festooned the facts with embellishments....

You do make good points and the film maker is in the business of making money off views but you cannot simply place all sightings in the same bag. Sometimes you have to do some independent study to see how accurate the film maker was being. Sometimes it turns out to be bs, sometimes is turns out to be lack of enough evidence to really say but more often than some want to think it turns out ot be inexplicable despite an embarrassing wealth of evidence. Those are called unexplained and the number of the unexplained only grows larger.

7 hours ago, TheVat said:

This is going to get expensive.  Sidewinder missiles are not cheap.

 

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1158048921/pico-balloon-k9yo

 

Did a superpower showdown provoke the U.S. into using a fighter jet to shoot down a hobbyist group's research balloon in Canada? That's the question the public — and the FBI — wants to answer, after the U.S. military shot down several unidentified airborne objects last weekend.

A military spokesperson tells NPR it's their understanding that the FBI has spoken to the hobbyist group in question — the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade, based just north of Chicago — in an apparent attempt to determine whether their small balloon might have inadvertently caused a big ruckus....

 

 

3 hours ago, swansont said:

$400k for a missile, but $200k for the training version, so cost without explosive payload somewhere in between.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-9_Sidewinder

That’s cheap in comparison to US military budgets. The Air Force alone has bought more than 10,000 of them. Raytheon has hundreds-of-million-dollar contracts to supply them. 

https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/usaf-receives-10000th-aim-9x-sidewinder-missile/

This is peanuts, relatively speaking. And might tick off something on the training requirements for a pilot or two, so these might be in lieu of other missiles that would be fired.

There is also the real possibility of a significant attack coming from a Drone or a balloon, I know it's considered a crazy idea but a 1 megaton nuke detonated from a balloon at 100,000 feet would do some real damage to our nation and be difficult to defend against and maybe even figure out where it came from. 

The cost of a few missiles seems a small price to pay to prevent this and maybe even be enough to make cheaper missiles to take down these objects.  

6 hours ago, TheVat said:

Immediately following this post, I replied as to why one might not find the witnesses entirely credible.   I was hoping to keep the discussion going on that matter, but there was no reply.  In a science forum when someone posts a critique (see the linked information in that post) of scientific methodology, especially where data collection is concerned, that seems like a fruitful path towards learning and further research.  So that was disappointing.  

And as I posted I had no settled beliefs or firm conclusions, just a sense that the data was compromised.  

I share this reviewer's reaction....

https://rogersmovienation.com/2022/10/15/documentary-review-more-proof-of-a-ufo-encounter-thats-nothing-of-the-sort-moment-of-contact/

There is no “concrete” evidence that what happened in January of 1996 in the city of Varginha, Brazil was caused by an alien spacecraft, well, none that’s presented in director James Fox‘s latest UFO documentary, “Moment of Contact.”

There are no photographs, no “crash” debris, not even local TV coverage at the time provided much more than what some folks told interviewers then who repeat their stories for Fox and crew 26 years later, about what they saw.

Fox has an eyewitness take us to a non-descript piece of land, where, after some hunting around, he shouts (in Portuguese with English subtitles) “It was here! HERE!”

Fox interviews the current mayor of Varginha, and asks him the same loaded and pointless question he peppers young people on the street with — “Do you believe” that a UFO crashed here, that there were survivors, that the military perhaps with US help, spirited them away?

Absolutely, the mayor of a city with a UFO monument and saucer-shaped museum says, I mean, his nephew’s girlfriend saw things. She did....

No to be disrespectful... but no concrete evidence? What would constitute "concrete evidence"? I often wonder about this, it's like people refuse to consider a report unless they have a crashed object or a body.

Does anyone really expect "concrete" evidence from an advanced alien spacecraft? There are pictures, radar conformations, physical traces on the ground of something unusual at the very least. Can we really expect "concrete" evidence to be left behind by anything so advanced?

I know I know, what someone said happened isn't enough, but at what point do we stand back and realize that the shear number of sightings by relatively competent observers  suggest something... if not extraordinary then at least highly unusual?

Maybe it's like the bigfoot phenomena where prolonged study has at least pointed us in the direction that suggests black bears might be what is prompting a great many sightings. Did that real possibility come from simply dismissing the idea of bigfoot? No it came from investigating the sightings, not by dismissing them because we didn't have a bigfoot corpse. 

2 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

@Moontanman  Did you get a chance to watch James Fox's latest documentary?  Since you enjoyed Phenomenon, you might like this one also: Moment of Contact (2022). 

It investigates a case in Varginha, Brazil that happened in 1996, where a tic-tac shaped UFO was shot down (or crashed) on the outskirts of the city, and two living bipedal creatures of an unidentifiable species were sighted by the residents of Varginha hours later. 

Attached a clip from youtube where one of the witnesses, who was in the Brazilian army at the time, shares his story.

   

I haven't seen that video but I have read of that report, it was pretty much poo pooed because it happened in a poor superstitious part of Brazil... evidently even UFOs can be racist. I thought the report was interesting, I'll try and watch it soon. 

Brazil and other parts of South America have long been known as hot spots of UFO activity but were pretty much ignored by mainstream media but lots of accounts have made it to UFO journals and other sources.  

1 hour ago, exchemist said:

Haha. However I don't think this general quite meant that. I think he was trying to stop being dragged into speculation by the line of questioning of a reporter  and tried to close it down by saying he would not rule anything out until he had the intelligence reports.

Unfortunately that included not ruling out little green men. So now everyone has jumped - either stupidly or disingenuously - on that, to claim "Aha, he thinks it could be little green men!" 

Finally!

A friend on "facebook" is sure the scenario from Independence Day is being played out and soon we'll be in a full scale alien invasion... an air force general who recently said at this point we can't rule out aliens isn't really helping.  

1 hour ago, TheVat said:

 

Also like some of their raunchier songs, which I will warn may be NSFW.  

NSFW? You mean like "The Loophole" ? 

Nice, I always liked the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band version too. 

19 hours ago, MigL said:

Maybe you can cite a study that shows old cnservatives are more "pissy" than old liberals.

They may be more mean, but most old conservatives are rich, with no reason to be miserable or 'pissy'.

They are just pissy about different things. 

19 hours ago, MigL said:

Well they made movies about 'grumpy old men', so it must be true.

No, purely anecdotal on my part also.
And possibly more lonely/depressed than grumpy.

Hey I'm lonely as well, send nudes. 

15 hours ago, Sensei said:

@John Cuthber

..you truly deserve to be called an "ape" and not "homo sapiens".. this video wasn't about "apes and black people".. it was about "giving guns to the wrong hands that can turn against you".. If you were a "homo sapiens", and not a "ape", you would have figured it out, but your hatred blinds you and prevents you from seeing the real content.. V.P. is giving weapons to the wrong hands, i.e. criminals from prisons and ordinary Russians who don't share his madness, and might turn against V.P. and his mafia..

The ancient Romans did this twenty centuries ago, and it began and ended their downfall..

Wow! I never imagined it would turn into some kind of racist thread branch.. You need to flush that shit out of your head..

 

Well technically he is an ape and so are you and me and all other humans. 

1 hour ago, MigL said:

There is plenty of humor in this discussion.

It's funny how people are so set in their ways ( ideologies ) that they refuse to even see alternative viewpoints.
Monntanman mentioning the 'taking' of land by the Israeli Jews, when it was actually established in the colonially ( British ) mandated lands of Palestine.
He mentions the bulldozing and herding into small compounds without mentioning that Arabs and Palestinians are free to live in Israel and can even be members of government.
He fails to mention how some of these 'compounds' can elect governments whose sole purpose is the eradication of Israel and how these compounds, having no food or medicine for their people, manage to get their hands on thousands of home-made rockets that are indiscriminately launched into Israeli population centers.

TheVat is so concerned about he association of apes with blacks in American racist culture, for which he blasts JohnCuthber that he fails to see the problems Europe has with racism.  It's not an American thing when bananas are thrown onto the pitch at most major soccer/football games with black team members.

Or Zapatos having a problem using the 'c' word ( TBH so do I ), when it is very common in the UK, and thrown about with careless abandon.

Doesn't anyone else see the humor in how easily offended everyone has become ?
Why do we, individually, want the whole world to recognze/respect our own individual sensitivities ?
Why can a word/idea used by one individual 'hurt', but be perfectly acceptable if used by another ?

I may not like MisterMack's political views, but, if he tells me a statement is a joke, I'll consider it as such and try to find the humor in it; there always is.

And you fail to mention how the Israelis drove out the majority of the Palestinians, bulldozed their homes, killed them outright to make them leave and confined most of them to tiny areas they now occupy. As for where their missiles come from. I would imagine that they come from other countries who have a stake in harassing the Israelis. This is not a complex issue, yes the British tried to make an Israeli homeland but like lots of effort the British put into partitioning other peoples lands this effort resulted in lots of violence because the people who already lived there were not given the same rights the Israelis enjoyed. Just because god or the british told the jews they could have this land didn't justify the methods they used to eliminate the people who already lived there.  

I guess if Israel has a God given right to the land they occupy and they have the right to round up the previous inhabitants and push them into what amounts to a concentration camp then by extension Native Americans, by the authority of the Great Spirit, should have the right to take back all our lands the Europeans took and round them up into concentration camps (reservations) and starve them out. Maybe Native Americans can get the support of Russia and China to help us enforce our claims? 

Israel is the bad guy in this and their claims are based on nothing but religion, the Palestinians have just as much right to exist on that land, I see no way to get around this logically.  

I can honestly say I have nothing against the Jewish people individually or as a people but they get no magical pass either. And the whataboutism of saying other countries have no room to talk is a very sad excuse.       

So planet of the apes is coming?!

If the Israeli government is exempt for humor then this entire thread should be closed. I see no reason to exempt The Israeli government from political humor, they are no more exempt from humor than anyone else. 

Wait! Boobs were flashed? 

I thought mistermack's joke was quite spot on my funny bone. I don't have anything against jews but israeli policy has long been lampooned for being somewhat less than gentle to those who dare to disabree with them. I don't hate israel as many who simply criticize them are accused of doing but I see no reason to kiss their ass either.  

16 hours ago, mistermack said:

I said no such thing. You're inventing your own facts. Which doesn't argue well for the general quality of your arguments. So it's not surprising that the AAH is for you. Jim Moore's writing generally makes sense. Elaine Morgan's writing is pretty worthless, full of special pleading. 

I enjoyed her books of fiction... but the AAT has been shown to be false.

I can see a house being made up of living trees, I've seen trees grown into various shapes, some resembling houses and even partially functional, but moving objects? Maybe with a lot of genetic engineering.