As China’s leader Xi Jinping concludes his state visit to the USA this week, attention will now turn in security circles to the vexed question of whether China might launch an attack on Taiwan, and if so how soon ?

For a number of years American military strategists have been concerned about something known as  the “Davidson Window”. About four years ago Admiral Phil Davidson the former commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command told Congress that China could be ready and willing to take control of Taiwan  by 2027

https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/will-china-invade-taiwan

This year is seen as a milestone of special significance to mainland China because it will mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) i.e. the Chinese Red Army which defeated the Kuomintang forces in 1949 and established the PRC on 1 October 1949.

The Communist Chinese have never accepted the suggestion that Taiwan is anything other than an integral part of mainland China, and they have long memories and almost infinite patience too. There is a famous (but apocryphal) story that back in 1970 Mao Zedong was asked about the impact of the French Revolution and replied  that it was “Too early to say”. The story arose from a translation error in a question to Zhou Enlai about the 1968 student riots in Paris rather than the French Revolution of 1789, but it is  a good one, and quite telling.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/38813/zhou-enlai-mao-tse-tung-impact-of-french-revolution/

The military calculus is quite simple. If China wishes to invade Taiwan, then it would most likely do so in the months of either April or October, because these offer the optimal weather condtions and calmer sea states required to launch a major amphibious naval operation across the 100 mile Taiwan Strait.  As Kublai Khan the leader of the Mongol Yuan dynasty of China found out in both 1274 and 1281, it is an exceptionally bad idea to launch a major naval invasion fleet during the Monsoon seasons in the East China Sea. Both attempts by the Mongols to invade Japan ended in catastrophe when the entire invasion fleet was destroyed by typhoons which the Japanese christened Kamikaze ( 神風  - ‘Divine Wind’).

The political calculus is more complex. One hidden factor is a perception that the USA may well achieve “Semiconductor Sovereignty” by 2030 meaning it would no longer be dependent on the world-leading technology skills of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - a potentially critical factor in the ongoing race between America and China to develop and weaponise AI systems of warfare.

The other key political  factor from a Chinese point of view is their perception of the  USA’s current level of military distraction, and their general state of readiness and ability to respond to major military developments around the world. The answers to these questions at present could hardly be more ominous. Xi Jinping will have seen for himself that the USA is being led by an infirm and cognitively impaired 80 year-old president who is mainly concerned with vanity projects such as building ballrooms and triumphal arches.

Chinese military analysts are well aware that the ongoing war with Iran has left the USA military establishment with critical shortages of high-tech weapon systems, and that the loss of military bases and logistics facilities in the middle-east and elsewhere has stretched its ability to project US naval power around the world to the breaking point. The ongoing purges of high level military leadership carried out by the alcoholic charlatan currently in charge of the Pentagon represent another ongoing catastrophe which won’t have escaped the attention of Chinese observers either.

If the Chinese did decide to make a move on Taiwan in the near future, then its first manifestation will most likely be the announcement of a maritime blockade and a quarantine of the island.

I don't think so.
It would be extremely 'painful' for China to try to take the island, as things currently stand, as it wouldn't be just Taiwan's and US forces resisting. All other regional powers would become involved, as they all have vested interests in the South China Sea, and oppose China's expansionist ambitions.
China is happy playing the 'long game', and Xi is attempting to thaw relations with D Trump, specifically.
He's hoping for Trump to abandon Taiwan, like he did Ukraine, with the promises of financial/economic incentives.
Maybe Trump will send Kushner and Witkoff to negotiate a 'peace' deal, where Taiwan surrenders to China, and Trump's family can build hotels/casinos/resorts/golf courses in China.

I concur with MigL and I think the Ukraine angle is more important here than US' weakness. I think for the most part Xi is a rational actor and he is aware of potential costs. Invasion of Taiwan really only is beneficial if it can be done at a relatively swift and demonstrate the overwhelming power of China. However, with Russia in Ukraine and the US in Iran, there are examples where inferior military is extracting a high toll on superior armies. The main question here is how effective Taiwan has been in recent attempts to draw up new defensive plans, including for example production of drones.

If there is an obvious weakness that China is certain that they can exploit before Taiwan can address it, it would increase the risk. But in the absence of such evidence, a quagmire like Iran or Ukraine would be disastrous, especially as China is a somewhat precarious situation. A war that is not quickly won could add quite a bit to the woes.

The Taiwanese government has said itself within the last week that they do not have adequate resources to defend their island against an attack by mainland China, nor could they withstand a blockade for very long - as documented in this report by Helen Ann-Smith for Sky News on 21 September.

https://news.sky.com/story/taiwan-does-not-yet-have-sufficient-arms-to-defend-itself-vp-tells-sky-news-13590292

In this report (@14:30) she interviews the CEO of one of the principal Taiwanese manufacturers of sea-borne drones who says that their company’s production is being stifled by a political impasse over defence spending, and he also warns that Taiwan’s stock of conventional weapons would be fully depleted within two weeks if the PRC attacked Taiwan.

A critical package of $14 billion worth of arm sales to Taiwan was placed in abeyance by the USA following meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi jinping in May this year, and remains in limbo. Meanwhile Taiwan’s principal opposition political party recently blocked, then cut in-half President Lai Ching Te’s $40 billion 8-year defence program budget - and they specifically stripped out the budget allocations for Taiwan’s planned indigenous drone and missile defence programs.

Taiwan imports  97% of its energy and, and has a food self-sufficiency rate of just 35%. A blockade would create immediate resource starvation, and many defence analysts believe that targeted Chinese cyber and precision missile strikes could completely paralyse Taiwan's power grids, communications, and transport infrastructure within 72 to 96 hours.

A destroyed Taiwan is worthless to China.
They need to 'capture' it with as little economic and structural damage as possible.

The ideal would be the same as happened with Hong Kong.

Yes. I've long thought it will be a soft power takeover. Wait for a good leverage point with the orange dotard, hint at a blockade, then offer Taiwan some softer alternative to invasion like a "treaty" where Chinese "consultants" are installed in key government offices. I suspect the Chinese CP learned some lessons about messy takeovers in Tibet, back in the fifties.

11 hours ago, toucana said:

The Taiwanese government has said itself within the last week that they do not have adequate resources to defend their island against an attack by mainland China, nor could they withstand a blockade for very long - as documented in this report by Helen Ann-Smith for Sky News on 21 September.

https://news.sky.com/story/taiwan-does-not-yet-have-sufficient-arms-to-defend-itself-vp-tells-sky-news-13590292

In this report (@14:30) she interviews the CEO of one of the principal Taiwanese manufacturers of sea-borne drones who says that their company’s production is being stifled by a political impasse over defence spending, and he also warns that Taiwan’s stock of conventional weapons would be fully depleted within two weeks if the PRC attacked Taiwan.

A critical package of $14 billion worth of arm sales to Taiwan was placed in abeyance by the USA following meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi jinping in May this year, and remains in limbo. Meanwhile Taiwan’s principal opposition political party recently blocked, then cut in-half President Lai Ching Te’s $40 billion 8-year defence program budget - and they specifically stripped out the budget allocations for Taiwan’s planned indigenous drone and missile defence programs.

Taiwan imports  97% of its energy and, and has a food self-sufficiency rate of just 35%. A blockade would create immediate resource starvation, and many defence analysts believe that targeted Chinese cyber and precision missile strikes could completely paralyse Taiwan's power grids, communications, and transport infrastructure within 72 to 96 hours.

I think the plan would not be to repel an invasion, just to make it costly. The more important and in my mind likely scenario is a blockade to enforce capitulation. As you mentioned, reports have suggested that Taiwan would run out of resources fairly quickly most put a depletion of resources in less than 2 weeks.

The downside however, is that it could put China in direct conflict with countries who trade with Taiwan. Japan, for example has stated in 20205 that a blockade of Taiwan would be considered a survival-threatening situation, which would essentially be a per-requisite to activate its self-defence force. Again, I think the calculus of the situation extends beyond whether the US will or will not interfere.

I expect China to be more Sun Tsu-ish about it (preferring to win without battle) and the US pledging to intervene seems a lot like US posturing - and the boosting of US arm sales - and not a fundamental reason for Chinese restraint.

And it isn't like the US to involve itself directly in a war with a large, strong nation, preferring to take on weaker ones at little risk to itself. China, in the face of real war with the US may have more capacity to take warfare to the US itself than any Middle Eastern nations or Vietnam or North Korea ever could; being impregnable and untouchable is an illusion. A US War Department or whatever they are calling themselves now, run by incompetents brings to mind Stalin's elimination of the USSR's most competent military commanders before and during WW2, at great cost in lives.

Meanwhile Taiwan is one of China's biggest trading partners; China's strength is not diminished by biding their time and leaving matters much as they are.