As China’s leader Xi Jinping concludes his state visit to the USA this week, attention will now turn in security circles to the vexed question of whether China might launch an attack on Taiwan, and if so how soon ?

For a number of years American military strategists have been concerned about something known as  the “Davidson Window”. About four years ago Admiral Phil Davidson the former commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command told Congress that China could be ready and willing to take control of Taiwan  by 2027

https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/will-china-invade-taiwan

This year is seen as a milestone of special significance to mainland China because it will mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) i.e. the Chinese Red Army which defeated the Kuomintang forces in 1949 and established the PRC on 1 October 1949.

The Communist Chinese have never accepted the suggestion that Taiwan is anything other than an integral part of mainland China, and they have long memories and almost infinite patience too. There is a famous (but apocryphal) story that back in 1970 Mao Zedong was asked about the impact of the French Revolution and replied  that it was “Too early to say”. The story arose from a translation error in a question to Zhou Enlai about the 1968 student riots in Paris rather than the French Revolution of 1789, but it is  a good one, and quite telling.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/38813/zhou-enlai-mao-tse-tung-impact-of-french-revolution/

The military calculus is quite simple. If China wishes to invade Taiwan, then it would most likely do so in the months of either April or October, because these offer the optimal weather condtions and calmer sea states required to launch a major amphibious naval operation across the 100 mile Taiwan Strait.  As Kublai Khan the leader of the Mongol Yuan dynasty of China found out in both 1274 and 1281, it is an exceptionally bad idea to launch a major naval invasion fleet during the Monsoon seasons in the East China Sea. Both attempts by the Mongols to invade Japan ended in catastrophe when the entire invasion fleet was destroyed by typhoons which the Japanese christened Kamikaze ( 神風  - ‘Divine Wind’).

The political calculus is more complex. One hidden factor is a perception that the USA may well achieve “Semiconductor Sovereignty” by 2030 meaning it would no longer be dependent on the world-leading technology skills of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - a potentially critical factor in the ongoing race between America and China to develop and weaponise AI systems of warfare.

The other key political  factor from a Chinese point of view is their perception of the  USA’s current level of military distraction, and their general state of readiness and ability to respond to major military developments around the world. The answers to these questions at present could hardly be more ominous. Xi Jinping will have seen for himself that the USA is being led by an infirm and cognitively impaired 80 year-old president who is mainly concerned with vanity projects such as building ballrooms and triumphal arches.

Chinese military analysts are well aware that the ongoing war with Iran has left the USA military establishment with critical shortages of high-tech weapon systems, and that the loss of military bases and logistics facilities in the middle-east and elsewhere has stretched its ability to project US naval power around the world to the breaking point. The ongoing purges of high level military leadership carried out by the alcoholic charlatan currently in charge of the Pentagon represent another ongoing catastrophe which won’t have escaped the attention of Chinese observers either.

If the Chinese did decide to make a move on Taiwan in the near future, then its first manifestation will most likely be the announcement of a maritime blockade and a quarantine of the island.

I don't think so.
It would be extremely 'painful' for China to try to take the island, as things currently stand, as it wouldn't be just Taiwan's and US forces resisting. All other regional powers would become involved, as they all have vested interests in the South China Sea, and oppose China's expansionist ambitions.
China is happy playing the 'long game', and Xi is attempting to thaw relations with D Trump, specifically.
He's hoping for Trump to abandon Taiwan, like he did Ukraine, with the promises of financial/economic incentives.
Maybe Trump will send Kushner and Witkoff to negotiate a 'peace' deal, where Taiwan surrenders to China, and Trump's family can build hotels/casinos/resorts/golf courses in China.