Reporting & Warning About Hurricanes

[Pangloss]

Hurricane Katrina has gotten me thinking. I wonder if we need to change the way we report on, and warn people about, hurricanes. Science has made vast improvements in prediction, and while that's certainly a good thing, it seems to have lead to misunderstandings amongst reporters and people in general about hurricanes.

 

Here in South Florida the current death toll is up to a whopping eleven people. That's a huge number for a category one hurricane, but what's really staggering about it is that almost all of those deaths came after the hurricane had passed! And the first two came from people driving around during the storm, underestimating its potential. The others came afterwards, from downed power lines and other issues related to people being out and about when they should have been indoors.

 

I don't know what the answers are, but I thought it might be interesting to discuss it. Some points come to me in particular that we may need:

 

1) MUCH less emphasis on pinpointing the specific place where the storm may go ashore. Katrina rambled around more than most storms, but even so it's never anything like a sure thing where these storms are going to hit. Florida has been hit by 6 hurricanes in the last 12 months, and not one of those hit exactly where predicted. Each and every time it caught some people by some degree of surprise. That alone seems like a really strange thing in this day and age.

 

2) More education about the dangers of being out right after a storm has passed.

 

3) Less emphasis on the category number, and more analysis of local conditions in the areas that may be hit. Recent rainfall and other environmental factors, current building codes and the level of adherence to them, that sort of thing.

 

4) More analysis of building codes in general. More discussion about why older buildings continue to exist without protection. Why is it that a house in Mobile can be built out of wood, but a house in Miami has to be made out of cinder block? And yet the house in Miami can't get flood insurance, and the house in Mobile can get flood insurance as cheap as that of, say, central Idaho? (I don't know squat about Mobile, I'm just suggesting a hypothetical line of inquiry.)

 

Thoughts?

[jdurg]

The problem is, stupid and ignorant people will always be stupid and ignorant. So telling people 'it's dangerous, don't do it' when the people see no real apparent danger isn't going to stop them. There will ALWAYS be a bunch of idiots who do stupid things and pay the ultimate price for it. It's sad, but it's the way it is.

 

For the forecasting, the weather people do the best they can to predict these storms, but in reality there are so many things that drive the direction and intensity of the storm that it's damned near impossible to predict them. Even with all our scientific knowhow, we only have a mere few days before the hurricane hits before we know for sure that it will hit. Even then, it can suddenly change course and move in a completely different direction. If people are smart, they'll realize that they live in a hurricane prone area and take heed of the warnings and potential for damage. If you live in the midwest, you should be aware of tornados and what they can do. If you live along the Mississippi you should be aware of the possibility of flooding. If you live along the gulf coast or atlantic coast, you should be aware of hurricanes. All the begging and pleading and warning and other stuff that goes on around a hurricane strike isn't going to change the mindset of those who chose to live in that area but refused to accept the fact that everything can be lost overnight.

[Phi for All]

4) More analysis of building codes in general. More discussion about why older buildings continue to exist without protection. Why is it that a house in Mobile can be built out of wood, but a house in Miami has to be made out of cinder block? And yet the house in Miami can't get flood insurance, and the house in Mobile can get flood insurance as cheap as that of, say, central Idaho? (I don't know squat about Mobile, I'm just suggesting a hypothetical line of inquiry.)

I have a client who is an architect in the Cayman Islands. He tells me they have two choices, spend a fortune and build to withstand a hurricane, or build cheap and expect it to be trashed so you can rebuild cheap again.

 

I suppose it's important to know how long you plan on staying. Plus I think it's a gamble for most people. If you knew you'd be getting hit hard every year, you pony up the dough and build to last. If you may get hit once every five years and it may not be very hard, you gamble on building with sticks.

 

I didn't know about the insurance inequities. I've always wondered how anyone can insure Floridians anyway after last year, and how Floridians can afford it. I guess it's one of those cost of living things you're used to by now.

[Pangloss]

Well I've been to the Caymans and it's pretty densely populated, so I'm a little surprised to hear him say that. Sure, you can rebuild, but flying debris is what destroys and damages other property, and is one of the main reasons for building codes (there's a reason why building materials are tested by firing a 6-foot 4x4 at them at 150mph). And oddly enough, tougher building codes often doesn't add as much as you might think to a new house. Most of the cost of a new house is based on property and resale values, not what it cost to build it. (But of course if your house gets blown down, it's the cost of rebuild that matters, as I'm sure was his point. I'm just pointing out that in terms of initial building cost it's not as big a deal as some might think.) And of course there's also the inconvenience and temporary shelter requirements associated with losing your house or workplace.

 

That's a good point about the frequency issue. We did some thinking along those lines recently in deciding to upgrade our hurricane shutters from the standard, wooden, nail-it-in-place variety that most people have, to a permanently-mounted, sliding variety. It cost almost $5,000 to do the entire house, but I think over the long haul it'll be worth it.

 

Regarding insurance, the funny thing about it is that all the major insurance companies in Florida still made a profit last year, and the state ran a budget surplus (in spite of covering most of the $46 billion damage bill, minus a few billion from the feds, IIRC). (While that's a really high number, by the way, it's nothing compared with what it would have been if the codes hadn't been raised since Andrew.)

 

Some creative governmental and non-governmental approaches (lead by both Democrats and Republicans) have greatly improved the situation, but when I moved down here in 1995 new homeowners could not get *any* homeowners insurance, period. Now you can get it, but it's expensive, semi-backed by the state, and doesn't cover flooding (including flooding produced by a hurricane!). Flood insurance is available separately, but costs a lot, and there was a problem in Katrina in that areas flooded that weren't supposed to flood, so I can see the lawsuits flying around there already.

[Pangloss]

This is part of what I'm talking about, by the way. From the National Weather Service:

 

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

 

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

 

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

 

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

 

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.

 

Dear god, have we all said our prayers?! I mean sure, you want to warn people, but how much warning does it take before you're just BEGGING people to treat you like the little boy who cried wolf?

 

(My wife's favorite is the common mantra that we hear down here that you should write your name on your arm in indelible permanent marker. No joke, I've heard government officials on TV actually tell people to do that!)

[danny8522003]

Id like to know how so many people were killed and left stranded by a storm they knew would hit a week in advance?

 

I mean why couldnt they have evacuated? Either by driving, walking, cycling, using public transport or even by an organised evacuation. I dont see how the richest country on Earth can let something like this happen, but as jdurg said, i guess stupid ignorant people will always be stupid and ignorant.

[Pangloss]

The amount of warning they actually had was about 40-48 hours. One of the peculiarities of this particular hurricane was that it kept changing direction.

 

Many of those affected had no transportation -- no way to leave town. Something like a million people with no automobiles, nor any available public transit that would take them out of the city.

[Phi for All]

I dont see how the richest country on Earth can let something like this happen, but as jdurg said, i guess stupid ignorant people will always be stupid and ignorant.

It's not just stupidity. Most of it is just gambling. If I never bought any medical insurance, car insurance, home owner's insurance and never got sick, in an accident or had anything bad happen to my home I could brag about how many tens of thousands of dollars I saved over the years. But one catastrophic illness or accident wipes all that savings out.

 

These people had no way of knowing a week ago that the storm would be as powerful and directly centered on their communities. New Orleans never thought their levees would collapse, flooding the entire city. They gambled that this one would veer off or lose potency the way other hurricanes have.

 

They lost this time. Now is not the time to criticize, now is the time to learn and mourn.

[CPL.Luke]

it also takes a long time to evacuate a city with over 10000 people on it, the police also have to shut down the roads at a certain point as to prevent a large number of people from being stuck in gridlock trying to get away somewhere when the hurricane hits

[oatjay]

it isn't ignorance most of the time... people who live in hurricane prone areas are very used to hurricanes. i'm 18 and i've been through at least 10, maybe 15 or so and i've gotten through fine. people don't realize how strong these things can be because they're used to getting sideswiped or being hit by relatively weak storms. a lot of the people who die are also stuck in the position they're in- tourists with out a flight out or access to rental cars, people who can't afford to leave, people like my aunt and uncle, who can't get very far away because they're in charge of caring for over 50 sick elderly people. don't assume everyone's stupid because of the few that are.