jimmydasaint

Ok, I have time to clarify my nebulous thoughts and I will make them in bullet points for my own benefit:

1.IMO  In a population, more deadly strains of virus might be eliminated in favour of less deadly strains due to Natural Selection and high mortality rates of those infected with the more deadly strain. If aeroplane flights incoming and outgoing were severely curtailed, e.g. in a full lockdown scenario, the chance of introduction of new and deadlier forms should be also reduced. As a consequence, milder strains with milder symptoms should dominate the population. Even if the population was not isolated, less deadly forms of the virus should dominate as you correctly indicated. 

2. IMO if a population has been infected with a more virulent but less deadly form of the virus, the immune systems of those people who were infected should  be able to respond to a similar, but different form of the virus, because of common antigens between both. I know that health officials concentrated on what was a measurable correlate of infection - antibodies. However, these are transient measures of infection and the real immune response, IMO, is found in memory T and B lymphocytes which would focus the "seek and destroy" function of the immune response and would target parts of the viral antigen load which are invariant between strains during natural immunity. IMO natural immunity was not widely discussed by health officials at the time.

3. If mpox is deadly at the moment, during widespread infections amongst populations, IMO, the disease should gain virulence but milder and less deadly forms should be more prevalent. Natural immunity in the form of lymphocytes should be a mechanism of partial protection on further mutated strains arriving interminably. 

I think sort of clarifies what I was aiming at articulating and did not manage to write down in a cogent or lucid manner initially. 

Out of curiosity, because I don't know the answer, in one country, for example England, would infections of a locked down public not lead to more milder strains of the infectious agent/virus as the most aggressive strains would not be passed on because of the  mortality rates of the infected?

I am assuming that in a freely mixing population with more strains available due to movement of infected people between countries would lead to the possibility of import of more virulent viral/pathogen strains.

However, surely natural herd immunity would serve to make most people more resistant to the imported more virulent strain due to cross reactivity of white blood cells with the antigens common to the first strain as well as the imported strain.

A clever method which can immediately target pathogens for countermeasures against infections of crops, thereby increasing the yields for sale:

Quote

Our results document losses associated with 137 pathogens and pests associated with wheat, rice, maize, potato and soybean worldwide. Our yield loss (range) estimates at a global level and per hotspot for wheat (21.5% (10.1–28.1%)), rice (30.0% (24.6–40.9%)), maize (22.5% (19.5–41.1%)), potato (17.2% (8.1–21.0%)) and soybean (21.4% (11.0–32.4%)) suggest that the highest losses are associated with food-deficit regions with fast-growing populations, and frequently with emerging or re-emerging pests and diseases.     The global burden of pathogens and pests on major food crops | Nature Ecology & Evolution

Also, examples are the following:

Bacterium

• Xanthomonas campestris: This bacterium causes black rot in cruciferous vegetables like cabbage, cauliflower, and broccoli.

Virus

• Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV): This virus affects a wide range of plants, including tobacco, tomatoes, peppers, and other members of the Solanaceae family.

Fungus

• Puccinia graminis: This fungus is responsible for stem rust in cereal crops such as wheat, barley, and rye.

It should be interesting if the DNA of farmers and passers by is also sequenced....

On 8/7/2022 at 3:11 AM, JimBlob said:

I'm merely a student of evolutionary biology but this article reads like an alarmist piece. And because it's not peer reviewed it carries no weight with me. I suspect were it presented for scrutiny we would find that most mutations are harmless and any harmful ones eliminated quickly. If the opposite were true many species would be seriously hindered since only a limited amount of offspring would survive to reach sexual maturity. Perhaps humans have found a way to increase harmful variations within our own genus but it's only because those born with defects in fitness reach sexual maturity instead of being eliminated. If natural selection is not permitted to function the fitness of any species will suffer.

It's good that you are reading with a critical eye. This will serve your studies well. The studies were performed on the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the authors assumed that a wider number of species would show similar trends. As far as the article being peer-reviewed, if you had read to the end of the Science Daily article you would found the following reference:

Quote

Journal Reference:

1. Xukang Shen, Siliang Song, Chuan Li & Jianzhi Zhang. Synonymous mutations in representative yeast genes are mostly strongly nonneutral. Nature, 2022 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04823-w

I hope that the journal Nature is stringent and peer-reviewed enough for your liking as it is quite well known. I think the research and the conclusions are not alarmist but quite pragmatic and, if they are found reproducible from a number of different scientists, overturn my old fuddy-duddy beliefs about so-called neutral mutations.  

On 8/14/2022 at 5:41 PM, GREYEANNIUS said:

Perhaps time is of essense. Old news sometimes lightens up to new news. sorry

Thanks for the reply. The news was published in 2022 and is quite dramatic. If proved, Biology books at school level would have to rewrite sections on genetic mutations. 

Guys,

Thank you for the replies.

I have tried MECM - Movement, Exercise, Collegiality and Meditation. The exercise bit was accepted and she did exercise daily. However, the other 3 were rejected. I then set micros-targets - shower, clean your house etc... and these were followed because they gave an element of control to the person. However, most importantly, I am the person at the other end of the telephone, or in person, who will listen - as long as it takes. I think the friendship element is lacking in a society which is being shattered into individual sections, isolated from each other by technology rather than coming together. Loneliness is, IMHO, a contributory factor to the disconnectedness of the individual from society and the subsequent retreat into the world of their thoughts. I will keep trying as I would do with any friend. I am hoping that something I will say will "click" and then the road to mindset change will become wider. 

If I can be of use to anyone in this Forum, please do not hesitate to ask for my advice. 

Best wishes

Someone close to my family has had years of depression which they refused to treat and has now fallen into a deep and sustained depression. I am trying to help through coaching and encouragement but my efforts have failed totally. Is there any non-pharmaceutical method to help this person out of their depression?  I am struggling to find methods which will result in a quick alleviation of this mindset.

Any help welcomed.

Oof!

Getting numbers and facts wrong should really result in a withdrawal of the paper surely?

Who peer-reviewed the original paper? Surely they could have double-checked a few of the numbers included and questioned the methodology?

I have often wondered if educational research which looks for significant numerical confirmation of hypotheses is open to bias in favour of mathematical and scientific subjects instead of opening up conclusions to all other subjects where increases in marks due to a given experimental intervention are not always clear. Furthermore, IMO, a rise in computer use in students over the last 20, or so years has not led to a huge increase in achievement for students. 

I just want to address the OP. ccdan referred to Popper and was struggling to find relevant data where a hypothesis was falsified in the Popperian hypothetico-deductive method.

Firstly, do you believe that there is some Objective Truth about phenomena or objects? Something that is independent of the subject and subjective bias? 

IIRC Popper believed that an Objective Truth could be reached through a deductive scientific method because induction was not enough. So a hypothesis is made, tested experimentally and then, if proved false, is modified and re-tested until it is close to an Objective Truth as possible.

I think Plato already indicated a sense of doubt about the reliability of observation and even getting close to an Objective Truth is valid science in my opinion.

My sense of ambivalence about the subject arises because I have seldom seen scientists go out of their way to falsify hypotheses. Quite the opposite. If a cell line did not show the hypothesis to be correct, a few scientists have been known to go out of their way to find the "correct" cell line. 

Nevertheless, the iteration of hypothesis, observation, deductive conclusion until you get close to the Objective Truth, is in stark contrast to induction.

An example of painstaking attention to Popper's method is described below:

Quote

To get a better understanding of the hypothetico-deductive method, we can examine the following geographic phenomena. In the brackish tidal marshes of the Pacific Coast of British Columbia and Washington, we find that the plants in these communities spatially arrange themselves in zones that are defined by elevation. Near the shoreline plant communities are dominated primarily by a single species known as Scirpus americanus. At higher elevations on the tidal marsh Scirpus americanus disappears and a species called Carex lyngbyei becomes widespread. The following hypothesis has been postulated to explain this unique phenomenon:

The distribution of Scirpus americanus and Carex lyngbyei is controlled by their tolerances to the frequency of tidal flooding. Scirpus americanus is more tolerant of tidal flooding than Carex lyngbyei and as a result it occupies lower elevations on the tidal marsh. However, Scirpus americanus cannot survive in the zone occupied by Carex lyngbyei because not enough flooding occurs. Likewise, Carex lyngbyei is less tolerant of tidal flooding than Scirpus americanus and as a result it occupies higher elevations on the tidal marsh. Carex lyngbyei cannot survive in the zone occupied by Scirpus americanus because too much flooding occurs.

According to Popper, to test this theory a scientist would now have to prove it false. As discussed above this can be done in two general ways: 1) predictive analysis; or 2) by way of experimental manipulation. Each of these methods has been applied to this problem and the results are described below.

 

Predictive Analysis

If the theory is correct, we should find that in any tidal marsh plant community that contains Scirpus americanus and Carex lyngbyei that the spatial distribution of these two species should be similar in all cases. This is indeed true. However, there could be some other causal factor, besides flooding frequency, that may be responsible for these unique spatial patterns.

 

Experimental Manipulation

If the two species are transplanted into the zones of the other they should not be able to survive. An actual transplant experiment found that Scirpus americanus can actually grow in the zone occupied by Carex lyngbyei, while Carex lyngbyei could also grow at lower Scirpus sites. However, this growth became less vigorous as the elevation became lower and at a certain elevation it could not grow at all. These results falsify the postulated theory. So the theory must be modified based on the results and tested again.

The process of testing theories in science is endless. Part of this problem is related to the complexity of nature. Any one phenomenon in nature is influenced by numerous factors each having its particular cause and effect. For this reason, one positive test result is not conclusive proof that the phenomenon under study is explained. However, some tests are better than others and provide us with stronger confirmation. These tests usually allow for the isolation of the phenomena from the effects of causal factors. Manipulative experiments tend to be better than tests based on prediction in this respect.

 

Source of article for Popper's method in action

The DNA code can have changes in it called mutations. DNA sequences specifically codes for amino acid sequences which are built into proteins. Proteins control the development  of organisms from a starting point to final organism itself. 

If the DNA mutations are in areas of the DNA code which can cause changes in the amino acid sequence, the final protein could be faulty and affect the final organism. Diseases such as  Sickle cell anaemia or cystic fibrosis are caused by a harmful DNA mutation arising from a single letter change in the DNA  sequence. 

I have grown up, and taught to my A-level (K12/13) students that some DNA mutations which do not affect the amino acid sequence are "neutral", "silent" or harmless. 

To my surprise, I read this recently and wanted to share it. 

Quote

 

Most 'silent' genetic mutations are harmful, not neutral -- a finding with broad implications

Date:

June 8, 2022

Source:

University of Michigan

Summary:

Occasionally, single-letter misspellings in the genetic code, known as point mutations, occur. Point mutations that alter the resulting protein sequences are called nonsynonymous mutations, while those that do not alter protein sequences are called silent or synonymous mutations. Between one-quarter and one-third of point mutations in protein-coding DNA sequences are synonymous. Those mutations have generally been assumed to be neutral, or nearly so. A new study involving the genetic manipulation of yeast cells shows that most synonymous mutations are strongly harmful.

 

ScienceDaily

StringyJ

Excellent, classical scientific technique.

What are you really getting at...?

Good find beecee. This article seems to be crossing the abiogenesis -biogenesis divide. Just a couple of questions. 1. Which organelles form this way in a cell which is approximately 90 percent water? 2. Presumably these experiments use pure reactants. Have they extended a similar model towards a "noisy" cell environment? 

I don't have time to read the whole article but presume you have mate.

Cheers

Sorry to wreck your party but your Speculations belong in the dedicated thread. At least please look up your topic on Wikipedia before posting. 

Good luck with the answers. 

Yes.

Great find Hans. The microbiome of communities of bacteria in the gut are so important as indicators of health and sources of future preventive medical strategies. A pity it did not get more hits. The study you included is fascinating and I hope the FMT had a long-lasting and not a transient effect.

I would prepare for any instability to society or the food supply by: a) accumulating dried foods that could last for 6 months

                                                                                        b) buying solar lamps that could give up to 10 hours of light after being charged by sunlight

                                                                                        c) buying batteries and torches that can be charged by induction

                                                                                        d) buying toilet paper -  a clean bottom is a prerequisite to face any social disorder (also clean underwear in case you are  asked to undress at the doctors )

I am not an economist or politician.

However, I am hearing rumours of a world economic crash, possibly in the next year, that will rival the 1929 economic disaster. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBpL2WwGiw4  

Harry Dent: Stock Market 40% Crash in April, Nothing Can Save You, Bitcoin to Zero, Gold to $1000 - YouTube

We, the public, should be able to analyse and assess how economic changes can influence all aspects of life including political manifestations as well as sociogeopolitical responses by a concerned public (e.g. me)

Do others see stability, limited instability or widespread instability?

Wow. This is fascinating. Just out of interest please, where is oxygen formed? Also, does the hypothesis propose if the protein can actually be biochemically active? Good find!

They are referred to as mucilaginous and it is possible that few scientists have fully analysed the sacs.

Link

Certainly, there are a number of beneficial substances including vitamins and minerals:

Paper

If you cross-reference the paper, you may find out the information you need.

How typical is this of other hunter-gatherer societies. If a tribal war took place which eliminated the males from a tribe, perhaps the remainder of the women were forced to feed their children by becoming hunters.

On 9/14/2020 at 5:06 PM, swansont said:

"Strange chemical in clouds of Venus defies explanation. Could it be a sign of life?"

https://www.space.com/venus-clouds-possible-life-chemical-discovery.html

I am joining this vigorous debate quite late so I just wish to make one point. If micro-organisms are synthesising the phosphine and then undergoing replication exponentially before reaching a stationary phase and remaining in that phase where number of deaths = number of new bacteria then the levels of phosphine would be fairly constant throughout the year,  I would imagine. However, if chemical substrates such as phosphine precursors were variable then a prolonged, year-long examination of phosphine amounts should show variation.  In the same way, our atmospheric  carbon dioxide levels vary according to the raw materials for synthesis of carbohydrates by algae and land-based plants; we tend to see a decreased atmospheric concentration in the summer when ambient conditions of raw materials and substrates are at their highest. Of course I am just speculating but are there seasonal variations in atmospheric gas content on Mars?

I'll try again with Slash and Myles Kennedy:

Slash

Man rock - RoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaR!

Who said there was no room for instrumental music? Probably no-one. Nevertheless, this kicks ass!

Thunder, just another under-rated British band:

 

So tired of waiting I walked an empty land
I was looking for something to help me understand
But bad luck kept turning my dreams into sand
I didn't want pity, I had my share of friends
I wanted somebody more special than the rest
I was aching inside like I was approaching the end
Just about that moment the timing was so right
You appeared like a vision sent down to my life
I thought I was dreaming when I saw you that night

That's when love walked in through my door
That familiar feeling I had once before
love walked in through my door
And it felt so strange

It's hard to remember being on my own
That kind of loving makes a hard man lose control
But I sleep so much better now I'm not alone
So promise me baby you're always gonna stay
I don't think I could take it seeing you walk away
You don't need to doubt it, I remember that day

That's when love walked in through my door
That familiar feeling I had once before
love walked in through my door
And it felt so strange
Like a long lost friend that hadn't changed
Giving me hope again

Love walked in
Love walked in

Just about that moment the timing was so right
You appeared like a vision sent down to my life
I thought I was dreaming when I saw you that night