toucana

Persistent rumours that the PLAN (Peoples Liberation Army Navy) of Communist China had a nuclear submarine disaster in late August of this year have reappeared recently with new details. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X2BjWnq9R8 According to this update, a CCP type 093 nuclear submarine #417 became trapped in one of the Chinese navy’s own anti-submarine underwater boom defense systems in the Yellow Sea, near the mainland Chinese coastal city of Shantou, to the southwest of Taiwan. According to a Twitter/X post by @Luoxiangzy on 19th October, the incident occurred at 8.30 a.m. on Monday August 21. The submarine #417 had sailed from Qingdao naval base and was carrying out an underwater survey mission when it became trapped by a chain-boom intended to deter intrusions by US navy submarines. The ship’s captain Colonel Xue Yongpeng despatched a diver with oxy-acetylene cutting gear to free the submarine, but when the diver returned and attempted to re-enter the vessel by knocking on the escape hatch, he received no response. The diver then violated regulations by surfacing, and was promptly rescued by two frigates that were on patrol nearby. The surface vessels asked for support from the Lianyungang Baitabu Air Base, but rescue operations were delayed by heavy thunderstorms in the area. An airpump was subsequently flown out to the scene by helicopter, and divers successfully connected an airline to the submarine, but too late. When the vessel was subsequently brought to the surface and opened up, the 55 crewmen onboard were all dead. Forensic autopsy subsequently disclosed that they had died from hydrogen sulphide poisoning. The hydrogen sulphide (H2S) probably came from a malfunction in the charging and venting system of the submarine’s heavy duty lead acid battery system which typically uses lead alloy plates in an electrolyte solution of 35% sulphuric acid and 65% water. (Some newer submarines use Lithium cells instead). https://ehs.umass.edu/sites/default/files/Battery%20SOP.pdf According to the Chinese accident report, the vessel was not fitted with a hydrogen sulphide monitor alarm. The gas is invisible, flammable and highly toxic, and while it can normally be detected at low concentrations by its revolting “rotten eggs” smell, it quickly induces anosmia or loss of smell in higher concentrations. The Chinese CCP leader Xi Jinping who was attending a BRICS Summit in South Africa abruptly cancelled a keynote speech after being briefed on the disaster. His planned speech to the Business Forum on 22 August was given by Wang Wentao the Minister of Commerce instead.

What comes next is Mike Johnson 51 - an obscure back-bench congressman from Louisiana who is a Christian nationalist on the ultra conservative right-wing of the GOP. Mr Johnson is apparently a man of God, which is good, as he’s likely to need all the help he can get. In a sermon back in 2016, he assured parishioners of the Louisiana Baptist Message that mass-shootings were caused by teaching evolution in schools, and allowing ‘no fault’ divorces to take place. (Johnson himself is in a covenanted marriage with his wife Kelly that eschews any possibility of divorce). He also supports a blanket ban on abortion with no exceptions. On broader matters, Mike Johnson asserts that climate change is a hoax, and that the Capitol insurrection on Jan 6 in 2021 was a form of ‘legitimate political protest’. He voted consistently against accepting the electoral college returns that confirmed President Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, and also authored an amicus brief filed in the supreme court by Texas to throw out all the swing state results. Before entering politics, Johnson worked for the Alliance Defending Freedom – designated a hate group by the Southern Law Poverty Center, which tracks US extremists. According to the SPLC, the ADF has “supported the recriminalisation of sexual acts between consenting LGBTQ+ adults in the US and criminalisation abroad; defended state-sanctioned sterilisation of trans people abroad; contended that LGBTQ+ people are more likely to engage in paedophilia; and claimed that a ‘homosexual agenda’ will destroy Christianity and society”. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/25/who-is-mike-johnson-house-speaker-election-denier-climate-anti-abortion#:~:text=In%202016%2C%20as%20he%20ran,%27ve%20been%20under%20assault”.

According to this CNN report, George Santos is facing 10 new federal charges contained in a superseding indictment (in addition to the 13 he already faced). The new charges arise in part from a guilty plea by Nancy Marks - his former campaign treasurer - and they allege that he stole the identities of campaign donors, and racked up fraudulent charges on their credit cards. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/10/politics/george-santos-superseding-indictment-doj/index.html

It’s not just Gaza. The IDF forces now deployed in operation Iron Sword are also engaged in heavy fighting to the north, up near the border with Lebanon along the UN Blue Line 2000. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8ol1znjHpE These reports say that IDF special forces neutralised an invasion by militants from Lebanon into the Israeli town of Netu’a in a night action, and subsequently used artillery and air-strikes to take out three major Hezbollah ammunition dumps and HQs at Samoukha, Jabal Al Arab, and Rmaych inside Lebanon.

The most extraordinary aspect of Saturday’s attack by Hamas was just how completely blindsided the Israeli intelligence agencies and defence forces were by the assault. Neither Shin Bet the domestic intelligence agency, nor Mossad the foreign intelligence service had any inkling that such a sabbath day attack was even possible - let alone imminent - they appear to have been truly ‘Eyeless in Gaza’. A lengthy post-mortem will examine how Hamas concealed their military preparations so effectively, by moving much of the planning off-grid - avoiding telephones, emails and telecommunications in general, and relying instead on couriers and coded paper messages. There will also be considerable interest in how much of the planning was taken off-site with planning meetings held in Syria and Iran who are widely believed to have financed and helped plan the attack. Recent comments by US Foreign Secretary Blinken suggest that the USA was aware of such meetings, but had no knowledge of what was discussed. Many commentators are comparing the Hamas attacks to the Yom Kippur assault in 1973, but I suspect a better analogy might be the Spring Tet offensive in Vietnam in 1968. That began as a massive surprise attack on command and control centers throughout South Vietnam. The Viet Cong and PAVN leadership launched these co-ordinated assaults during a public holiday, hoping to precipitate a sudden collapse of the South Vietnamese government and a general rebellion against their authority. The Tet offensive failed because the US forces under General Westmoreland quickly neutralised the direct military threat, wiping out over 45,000 of the attackers, and decimating the North Vietnamese armed forces in the process. The truly destructive legacy of the Tet offensive in 1968 however was its political impact on public opinion in the USA. Vietnam was the first ‘Television War', and the endless images of Viet Cong insurgents running wild through the streets of central Saigon and Hue, and the street massacres that ensued shook the confidence of Americans and its western allies that the war in Vietnam could ever be ‘won’. Even if the current Gaza conflict does not escalate e.g. with Hezbollah attacking from Lebanon, Hamas will have achieved a similar lasting political impact.

Some GOP sources are now attempting to float the idea of Donald Trump becoming an interim Speaker of the House. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFeNmtnxntI The problem with this was pointed out yesterday by Rep. Sean Casten (D.Ill), who reminded his GOP colleagues that the Republican party’s own House Conference Rules for the 118th Congress (adopted in January of this year) state that: “(a) A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years of imprisonment may be imposed” (Rule 26A) Donald Trump is currently facing 91 felony indictments, many of which carry potential sentences far above 2 years.

One of the very last credentials that any GOP member wants to see on the resume of a Republican candidate for the Speaker of the House right now is prior employment as a college wrestling team coach, and allegations of complicity in historical sexual offences against young men during that period. You don’t need to look very far into recent history to find out why either - as Alex Wagner explains in this MSNBC clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYtQ00hi3I0 Dennis Hastert the 51st Speaker from 1999 - 2007 (the longest serving Republican Speaker in history) was convicted in April 2016 of paying hush money related to previous sexual offences against a 14 year old boy in a motel room a decade earlier. He was also accused of sexually abusing 2 other high school wrestlers and a team manager at a time when he was employed as a teacher and coach at Yorkville High School Illinois. Hastert was convicted and sent to jail for 15 months - the highest ranking elected official in US history to serve a prison sentence (to date). Dennis Hastert was subsequently erased from the history of the Speakership. He is the one Speaker in living memory whose portrait does not hang on the walls of an exclusive picture gallery in the Capitol.

The decisive votes for a new Speaker will probably come from those GOP members who happen to be incumbents in potential swing districts in the 2024 presidential election.They know full well that they can’t afford to be seen as too closely allied with the rhetoric of performace art lunatics and toxic trolls like Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar. These more prudent GOP members will usually fall in line behind a more presentable candidate - as they did with McCarthy who only lost by 6 votes in the most recent vote - after 8 Republicans on the far-right voted against him. The problem facing the GOP now is that Kevin McCarthy was the only senior GOP member capable of commanding anything close to a majority of 218 on the floor of the House, and even he required 15 attempts to get there nine months ago. None of the possible candidates currently being touted seem to be capable of squaring this particular circle. Steve Scalise who is being mentioned as a possible choice has been under treatment for cancer in recent months, and is not in good health (he narrowly survived a shooting attack several years ago as well). Other possible candidates such as Tom Emmer have expressed no interest in running so far. The looming train-wreck not far down the line is that the House only recently passed a 45 day continuance motion to prevent a government funding shutdown. What happens if there is no Speaker in place when that runs out ?

I can't help wondering if it was a one-off special charter, (possibly a military cargo flight shipping weapons to Ukraine ?) which generated this malformed flight plan ?. Statistically speaking, it had to be quite a long-haul transatlantic flight to be capable of inadvertently snagging navigational waypoints with identically named designators (given that theses are supposed to be geographically widely separated) - but if it was a regular scheduled passenger flight plan, then surely the same software failure would have happened many times before ?

Presumably Donald Trump is taking careful notes for his post-2024 'Revenge List', and adding BA ✓ - underlined with a black sharpie - to the names of all his really *special* enemies

Reports circulating on Twitter and Reddit say that Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov had his Deputy Prime Minister and former Minister of Health Elkham Elkhan Suleymanov buried alive on suspicion of poisoning him. Suleymanov has neither been seen nor heard from since October 2022. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1700800571920228402 According to the VchK-OGPU Telegram channel, Kadyrov’s health deteriorated sharply not long after Suleymanov had personally administered certain injections to him. The Chechen government then unexpectedly published a decree on 25 October 2022 stating that Suleymanov had been ‘released’ from his position as Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Chechen Republic ‘on his own initiative’ from 21 October 2022. Suleymanov’s frequently updated Instagram channel fell silent from that date onwards, and a web page which he had founded called the ‘Republican Oncology Dispensary’ now points to a site selling cocaine in Dubai. Unofficial sources claim that he was murdered by being buried alive in the ground.

A report by NATS (National Air Traffic Services) says that a catastrophic failure of the UK air traffic control system on the August 28 Bank Holiday this year was a caused by a “one in 15 million’ software failure event. https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/NERL%20Major%20Incident%20Investigation%20Preliminary%20Report.pdf According to this report, a key sub-system called FPRSA-R (Flight Plan Reception Suite Automated) was thrown into a fail-safe shutdown mode when it attempted to process a flight plan submitted by an un-named airline which included two identically named (but geographically distinct) waypoint markers. The back-up system which runs the same software shut down as well. During the 4 hours it took to identify and resolve the issue, flight plans across the UK had to be processed manually, lowering the number that could be handled to just 60 per hour - instead of a normal 400. Around 1500 flights had to be cancelled on the Monday alone, and knock-on effects lasted for several days more. The ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) and other bodies have been trying to eradicate the use of non-unique waypoint names, but duplicates do exist around the world. Latest standards state that identical designators should be geographically widely spaced apart. But long-haul flight plans may include duplicates. In this instance both of the waypoints were located outside of the UK, one towards the beginning of the route, and one towards the end; approximately 4000 nautical miles apart

Captions ?

An amateur video posted on YT shows the plane falling to the ground. The Russian commentary by a woman - who apparently thought it was a drone being taken out by local air defences - suggests that the Embraer jet was hit by two SAM missiles.

The TASS news agency has just reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin the leader of the Wagner Group was one of 10 people killed when a private jet crashed near the Tver Region in Russia while on a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66599774 Presumably it was logistically simpler than trying to position him next to an open window.

I can’t help wondering how rural conservative gun-slingers would fare nowadays if they were forced to use smooth-bore flintlock muskets that had to be loaded by ramming hand-made black powder cartridges of twisted paper, wadding, and musket balls down the muzzle with a rod ? Fanciful ? Perhaps, but that was the type of firearm that the Second Amendment was predicated on when it was originally passed in 1791. Bolt action rifles didn’t come into general use until they were adopted by the Prussian army in 1841.

The Tsar Bomba (Царь-бомба) tested by the Soviet Union on 30 October 1961 had been designed by a team led by Andrei Sakharov to have a theoretical yield of 100 Mt. For test purposes the bomb was deliberately down-rated to a predicted yield of 50 Mt by replacing much of the Uranium-238 tamper with lead. This was done partly because there were real fears that the TU-95V bomber scheduled to drop the bomb by parachute at 4000m over the Novaya Zemlya peninsula would have been destroyed by the blast from a 100 Mt detonation. The Soviet Union military leaders were also distinctly nervous about proof-firing a 100 Mt weapon over their own territory because of the radioactive fallout that would ensue. The test was scheduled to coincide with the 22nd Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, so they couldn’t take the risk of anything going wrong. (Footage of the drop) -

Back in the days of the Soviet Union, there were only two official newspapers available for reading. One was called Pravda ( Правда - ‘Truth’) - the official newspaper of the Soviet Communist Party, and the other was called Izvestia (Известия - ‘The News’) which was the organ of the Supreme Soviet. A popular salt-mine joke was that ”There is no Pravda in Izvestia, and no Izvestia in Pravda”.

There is an Omniversum Dome Theatre version of the Imax which uses a gigantic hemispherical screen. The start-up on those machines is even more terrifying, because once you have laced the film, the entire projection head is then lifted up on a massive platform jack system to the projection porthole position located some 6 metres above the floor of the projection room. There is a good YT video showing one of these rigs being set up at the IMax Dome Theatre in San Jose CA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gENOhw1Q3vM

Director Christopher Nolan shot his new biopic ‘Oppenheimer’ (2023) in 70mm Imax format, and the new film has been given a rare theatrical release in that format (the first since ‘Tenet’ in 2020). The Imax format film roll for this new 3 hour film is about 11 miles long, and weighs some 600lbs. The Imax engineers not only had to design a new enlarged platter system to carry this amount of film: they have also issued a software emulator for the long defunct PalmPilot m130 hand-held PDA - because back in the day in 2002 this was the platform for the custom PDA app most often used by Imax projectionists as their ideal tool to control the long-play Imax Quick Turn Reel Units. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/07/imax-emulates-palmpilot-software-to-power-oppenheimers-70-mm-release/

Yes - a tech should know better - but attaching a variable 30v PSU to electric toys designed for 5v turns out to be quite entertaining..

A leaked copy of a transcript of the final text messages between the Titan submersible and its surface support vessel has been circulating for some days on the internet. There is a considerable amount of discussion in progress as to whether this log is veridical or not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Dj8IJbP41c The transcript indicates that an emergency of 19m duration preceded the loss of contact. The crew apparently reported that they had jettisoned their ballast weights and the craft’s metal landing frame after an abnormally fast descent, and red light alerts had appeared on their RTM (Real Time Monitoring) system which uses ultrasonic sensors to monitor hull stress. This indicates the crew had already aborted their descent and were attempting an emergency ascent. Further messages indicate the craft was struggling to ascend, and that the crew who had reported hearing crackling sounds from the aft area, had also lost the use of their A Power Bus, and had switched to the backup B power Bus just moments before contact was lost. All of which suggests that one of their main electrical battery units had been compromised.