Just Bad Weather?

[ashleycory]

One can politely compartmentalize the disrelated weather events which occurred over the past seven days and call those a coincidence, or one can imagine the horrors Dr. James Lovelock has warned could occur as this century unfolds, as he told us a year ago.

 

A week ago, Cyclone Gonu was recorded as the strongest tropical storm since 1945 in the Arabic Gulf region. It peaked as a Category 5 along the coastline of the Gulf of Oman. At the time, many worried it might disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. It was the first cyclone in recorded history to enter the Gulf of Oman. Eastern Australia was battered by heavy rains and suffered major flooding and landslides this past weekend. So great was the impact that some compared it to 1989’s earthquake, near the same location.

 

There have been other firsts over the past few years. In 2004, Cyclone Catrina became the first cyclone to form in the South Atlantic and also hit Brazil. In 2005, Hurricane Vince became the first cyclone to hit the Iberian Peninsula. In 2006, super typhoon Chanchu formed in the South China Sea, hitting China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Taiwan.

 

Many have concluded these could be early warning signs of much greater catastrophes expected as sea waters further warm up.

[iNow]

Can you summarize here the "horrors" that James Lovelock predicted? I'm not familiar with his work, but I do tend to agree with your closing sentence and think this could turn into a good discussion with the right type of nudges.

 

 

Many have concluded these could be early warning signs of much greater catastrophes expected as sea waters further warm up.

[SH3RL0CK]

Its difficult to draw any scientific conclusions from anecdotal evidence. Yes, the above hurricane/cyclone events are "firsts", however are they truely "first-time" events? Or is it possible that previous events were not recognized as such? After all, had a small tropical cyclone (such as Vince) hit the Iberian peninsula in 1935, it probably would have been considered just a regular storm. Had a tropical cyclone entered the Gulf of Oman in 1909 (instead of 2009), would this have even been recorded? Modern technology provides so much more information on the weather than we possible even a generation ago.

 

Also, its not clear that a warmer sea will automatically generate more tropical storms. Tropical systems are incredibly complex and chaotic, and very difficult to predict correctly.

[JohnB]

Eastern Australia was battered by heavy rains and suffered major flooding and landslides this past weekend. So great was the impact that some compared it to 1989’s earthquake, near the same location.

One can politely say Bulldust. Unless "near the same location" means "on the same bloody continent". Emerald and points north (where the flooding is) is some 600 klicks north of me and Newcastle (where the earthquake was in 1989) is around 650 klicks to the south. On this basis, London is "near the same location" as Prague.

A week ago, Cyclone Gonu was recorded as the strongest tropical storm since 1945 in the Arabic Gulf region.

So that means that there were stronger storms prior to 1945.

In 2006, super typhoon Chanchu formed in the South China Sea, hitting China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Taiwan.

Ooh, a "Super Typhoon". Not really, it was forcast to hit cat 5 but by the time it made landfall, it had downgraded to "severe tropical storm".

 

Also, as SH3LOCK points out, records aren't the best 100+ years ago and it's doubtful a meaningful comparison can be made.

 

iNow, there may be a discussion here, but not if it starts with bulldust.