peak fossil fuel in 15 years reboot

[Cap'n Refsmmat]

Ad hominem circumstantial.

[Phi for All]

Ad hominem circumstantial.

Logical fallacies are only applicable for arguments. I made none. I simply pointed out what the report says at the end. You know, for those who are tired of reading every reference and have begun to just accept a lot of links as evidence.

 

But it does tell me a lot about how quickly you're jumping, Cap'n. Since I know where you stand this new momentum information may help me remove any uncertainty.

[1veedo]

jackson33 you claim that understanding peak oil requires a firm knowledge of facts that are not yet known. My question: what is it that cannot be known ahead of time that is relevant to understanding peak oil?

 

Please explain why every oil well,field,region,and almost every country on the face of the planet from all different economic conditions, political atmospheres, and technology has produced historically along a linear equation defined by,

 

P/Q = -(b/Qtotal)Q + b, where P is production, Q is cumulative production, and the X intersect of the line is Qtotal.

 

Which is easily solved for years per billion barrels,

 

1/P = 1/(b + ((Q-Q^2)/Qtotal) (the bell curve)

 

And Qtotal under data that can be known ahead of time,

 

Qtotal = -bQ/(P/Q-b)

[jackson33]

everything in theory, has a peak. i contend to know what this peak is, assuming the usage is known (in the case of oil, also not sure) the unknown factor, availability has simply got to be understood.

 

the earths crust, generally 30 to 50 mile thick or deep, has formed from about earth age a billion yo, to what it is now. whats in this tremendous space is at best theory to those that speculate. we are as mentioned already finding oil by test, down to 5 miles deep. we have every reason to speculate very little lived, except micro life, to a point where this crust formation was 3 miles deep. additionally i have suggested production, assuming pumping of the crude, is based on the needs and available equipment. we refine at about 90% capacity and availability of crude runs at 100%. efficiency of equipment around the world, is not all that great. many places use old and very inefficient methods to pump. running at full efficiency and will all available resources to do so, my GUESS, would be the total output could be 50% over the worlds ability to use, which makes no sense, for other reasons i have suggested.

 

someone mentioned copper, back up the thread; copper has two primary uses, being coinage and electrical components. a US nickel is 75% copper and so on, and of course wire is currently all copper. Alloy, a combination of elements to produce a metal, could eliminate all needs for copper or for that matter any metallic product. Aluminum is 8% of the total crust make up. Silicon and oxygen the only items greater. the analogize this, this would be the total surface of the planet a mile deep plus, is aluminum. we could never use this item and can substitute alone for all coppers current uses. it actually has in the past, but fell short of coppers ability to carry current efficiently.

Magnesium, the major use for engines today was a by product not long ago in the production of salt. this a small example where technology changes the face of everything. magnesium is also an element, but easiest to use the salt by product. copper is mined from areas which are up to 80% in copper. Arizona has several mines, still not active from earlier price reductions and the cost to mine in the US.

 

my point is copper mention, is the idea that industry and management demand efficiency. this means profits, which makes things seem other than what they are. importing oil, copper products are simply cheaper than producing with in the US. the markets, speculators and investors that will never take delivery, add to the cost of the raw material. oil is said to be $20 a barrel and copper about 25 cents to its current 3.25/pd price friday...

[CPL.Luke]

despite the blatant heresay "oil is said to be $20 a barrel" the point of bringing up copper was just an example of where production of a resource will be very accurately modeled through the use of a peak theory.

 

it wa never my intention to indicate that there would be a crisis from the lack of copper or anything like that, like you said there are a million alternatives. The question is does the same exist for oil/fossil fuels?

[YT2095]

Thnx, that`s a fair answer

and you`ve also given yourself a few new ideas for other threads there too, this Thread is somewhat old/redundant now however, and not many will read through all of it seeing as it`s gone for so long.

it should be capped now to keep it still readable.

 

I`ll look forwards to chatting about your Other ideas and alternatives in threads Different to this one

[jackson33]

despite the blatant heresay "oil is said to be $20 a barrel" the point of bringing up copper was just an example of where production of a resource will be very accurately modeled through the use of a peak theory.

 

it wa never my intention to indicate that there would be a crisis from the lack of copper or anything like that, like you said there are a million alternatives. The question is does the same exist for oil/fossil fuels?

 

of course it does; ethanol the obvious and efficiency the hidden factor. engines designed in the 40's to 60's required four or five times the fuel to do what can be today. cars are running on refined garbage and a number of things today. hybrids are in an infancy state and with time could be made to operate with very little fossil fuel. the need for these things, have only recently been addressed, motives to do so being too costly on the consumer. if all thats already been done had not been, then i would agree peak is near, but it has and very much part of what i feel is never considered.

[Phi for All]

OK, I guess if you've all found readership of longer threads like this ones eventually fades, then that sounds fair.

People discuss things better when the topic is focused and narrow. The longer a thread lasts the more tangent topics are introduced.

 

Note the peak oil threads that go off on GW or the threads talking about terrorism that get mired in discussing the Bush administration. Some tangent talk is good and may lead to new insights and co-relationships but mostly people tend to fall into old comfortable arguments that can go on forever.

 

Thanks for understanding.

[jackson33]

POM; IMO, your problems lays in the natural forces of the Capitalist system. this, since the industrial revolution has seen all your suggesting, many times. the system reacts very quickly, since to solve any real problem will generate real profit. there is nothing wrong with profit, the desire constantly to do something easier and better the ultimate goal.

 

the predictions made over the years are to numerous to go into, but as some went on to be true, the solution were effected the problem never happened.