https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751272/striking-new-evidence-points-to-seafood-market-in-wuhan-as-pandemic-origin-point

 

Given how intertwined this is with stats, I was almost considering posting this in the math subforum. But since there were other elements to it, I figured I'd post it here. I'm open to re-evaluating my views on the lab leak theory, but there are still a few questions lingering in my mind.

 

A: They don't name the specific studies by name, and claim that said studies are just "preliminary"; does this mean they've yet to be published? If so, how will we know where to find them once they are published? Until then, how can we trust that NPR isn't just twisting these scientists' words?

 

B: For those of you more well versed in stats, does the studies' statistical reasoning (or at least, what their statistical reasoning is according to NPR) sound valid?

A) I have not read the link, but I am guessing that the two studies in question are the following:

https://zenodo.org/record/6299116#.YhpLBi9h06w

https://zenodo.org/record/6291628

Preliminary in this context likely means that it has not been formally peer-reviewed for publication in a journal yet. You can wait until it has been reviewed (at which point it would address potential criticisms from the reviewers) or read it as is. 

B) I have only skimmed the papers and I recall that I mostly nodded along and did not immediately find anything questionable with it. But perhaps others can take a closer look.