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Nonproliferation policies must be called a failure.


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Efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons began in the late 1940s. In part this reflected the horror of the weapon, but it was also spurred by the wartime secrecy that surrounded America's Manhattan Project. That secrecy continues to this day. What it overlooks is that the nature of scientific knowledge is such that it cannot be protected or controlled. If citizens of one country can learn physics, so can citizens of any other country. Given the spread of nuclear weapons, nonproliferation policies must be called a failure.

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You underestimate the power of free trade. With NK being the unpredictable menace that it is, what's preventing Japan and SK from going nuclear ? It's definitely not an inability to learn the physics. ;)

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DQW: That's exactly the point I was making. The NPT was based on the idea that existing nuclear weapons states would reduce their arsenals and transfer nuclear power technology to non-weapons states who in return would not develop an indigenous nuclear weapons program.

 

When the NPT went into effect there were four nuclear weapons states; now there are nine. Now the U.S. has reopened nuclear trade with India, a non-signatory, in direct violation of the treaty, and threatens Iran, a member of the NPT, for it's domestic power program. This treaty is dead in the water.

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nuclear weapons are the most disgusting thing man has ever invented!

 

 

Nah, i'd give that honor to some of the really bad weaponized bio weapons we've created and destroyed and are still currently keeping locked up safely(i hope anyway)

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Developing nations' insistence that they have a right to obtain nuclear technology as a source of energy is one issue; just as contentious is the US drive to build a new arsenal of replacement nuclear warheads.

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Sixty years ago, the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, followed by one on Nagasaki three days later. The killing and injuring of hundreds of thousands of people ushered in an age that threatened nuclear annihilation. Since the East-West confrontation ended 15 years ago, the world has tended to move away from the risk of a major nuclear conflagration, yet it remains far from eliminating nuclear weapons. Rather, in the past couple of years, the world has suffered setbacks even in its endeavors to curtail their spread.

 

A series of events have hampered antinuclear moves. For example, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference failed, and North Korea and Iran have been pushing their own nuclear programs. Their development efforts may not yet be at the stage of producing large bombs, but it has reached the extent where they worry their neighbors and destabilize regional peace.

 

 

The NPT review conference held in New York in May did not produce any agreement to further strengthen the NPT regime because of a rift between nuclear and nonnuclear-weapons states. While nonnuclear-weapons states insisted that nuclear-weapons states cut their nuclear arsenals and refrain from developing new nuclear weapons, the latter, in particular the United States, demanded that the NPT member countries focus on the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. The failure of the review does not necessarily mean the collapse of the NPT regime, but it is certain that it has weakened the momentum of efforts to rid the world of nuclear threats.

 

In 2002, in the first reduction agreement of its kind in nearly a decade, the U.S. and Russia signed a treaty to cut their deployed strategic nuclear forces by approximately two-thirds to 1,700-2,200 warheads each by 2012. But even with this treaty, the weapons will only be mothballed -- not destroyed -- and no verification procedures are provided. It is estimated that over 30,000 nuclear warheads are scattered throughout the world at present.

 

The nuclear-weapons states must bear responsibility for taking a lead role in working to realize the NPT's ultimate ambition of creating a nuclear weapons-free world. They can do this by carrying out substantially deep cuts in their nuclear arsenals. Only when they move in this direction will they have a credible ability to persuade other nations, including nuclear gray states like India, Pakistan and Israel, to abandon their nuclear weapons and forgo programs that may lead to the production of nuclear weapons.

 

As America's responsibility for nuclear disarmament as the only superpower in the world is especially heavy, it is regrettable that the U.S. refuses to join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. On the contrary, it is moving to turn nuclear weapons -- whose use has been unimaginable since the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki -- into more "practical" weapons such as small-yield mini-nukes and earth penetrators.

 

We would like to point out that the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the nuclear-weapons states for nuclear disarmament provides countries like North Korea and Iran with an excuse for pursuing a nuclear-development program.

 

North Korea apparently has been using its nuclear-weapons program as a means of securing political and economic gains. To many people, this seems deplorable. If North Korea becomes a full-fledged nuclear-weapons state, it not only poses a serious threat to other nations in the region but may also encourage an extreme reaction on the part of some elements in Japan, including demands that Japan also arm itself with nuclear weapons.

 

The confession by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program, sounded an alarm because it showed that one individual could play a significant role in proliferating nuclear-arms technology. Although he dealt with states, his case points to the danger of terrorists acquiring nuclear-weapons technology from scientists who do not guard themselves against the risks of contributing to proliferation. It shows that the fear felt since the collapse of the Soviet Union that nuclear-weapons technology might find its way into the hands of terrorists is not far-fetched.

 

With the number of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings dwindling, it becomes all the more important that the experiences of the two cities, as well as accurate knowledge about the dreadfulness of nuclear arms, be handed down to future generations worldwide.

 

An encouraging sign was the Nagasaki National Peace Memorial Hall for the Atomic Bomb Victims' sponsorship of an atomic bomb exhibition in Chicago that coincided with the NPT review conference -- the first such event by the body. As the only nation on Earth to suffer from atomic bombings, Japan should step up such efforts in earnest.

 

From:

The Japan Times: Aug. 6, 2005

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Well okay, I'll play the devil's advocate, just for the sake of discussion.

 

Isn't it at least *possible* that nuclear weapons would have spread more quickly had NPT not existed?

 

Also, what effect has the NPT possibly had on our *perception* about the importance of stopping the proliferation of nuclear weapons? Perhaps there has been some positive gain here?

 

And finally, looking at the context in which we look at issues such as Iran, isn't it possible that the backdrop of NPT has aided the coalition of signatory nations in slowing the flow of equipment and technology to nations that wanted it, and also in supporting efforts made to monitor and warn about such nations?

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So are you suggesting that the NPT has worked? Or do you agree that it has been a failure?

 

I agree that it's a failure. I haven't seen anyone jump on it and really disagree. But you would be right to say that I haven't given the matter nearly enough thought.

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The NPT was supposed to restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons and, in addition, monitor the progress of the existing nuclear states in fulfilling the other part of the treaty, which is the reduction and eventual elimination of their great nuclear weapons stockpiles.

 

The second part was to be the transfer of proliferation-resistant nuclear power technology to non-nuclear weapons states

 

The NWS appear to believe that only the first part counts - and then only when it concerns their perceived opponents such as non-weapons country Iran, rather than their fully tooled-up Israeli mates.

 

Countries that can build weapons, like Canada, and Brazil, and Japan do not because the choose not to and wouldn't NPT or not. The others like Israel, India and Pakistan that choose to are now labeled “rouge” by the treaty and they are now not involved in the next important step which is the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

 

In other words I think at this point it is doing more harm than good.

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I'm a little confused by the part of that point that you think is "good". Not to put words in your mouth or anything (just trying to clarify here), but are you basically saying that you feel states like Israel, Pakistan and India are incorrectly labelled as rogue states because they built bombs? I.E. they may actually be rogue, but it's wrong to label them rogue just because they built the bomb?

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The Treaty labels them rogue, and therefor subject to sanctions. India was a customer of Canadian nuclear technology, after they tested we were forced under the terms of the treaty (which we are a signatory) to cut them off. Of course they just stated building their own reactors built on the CANDU design and fueled them with uranium from the U.S.S.R. Now outside the NPT they are not part of the nuclear disarmament dialog and serve as an excuse to those other states (some with legitimate security concerns of their own) that wish to arm themselves with nukes.

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