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Quantum Cosmology predictions


Martin

What do you think the LQC postings on arxiv will be in 2005?  

1 member has voted

  1. 1. What do you think the LQC postings on arxiv will be in 2005?

    • bigtime growth: in the 50s
    • about twice what it was in 2003: in the 40s
    • perking along: in the 30s
      0
    • slow action: in the 20s
      0


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Here is the record of research paper postings in LQG-type quantum cosmology.

 

Year       # papers w. keyword Loop+Quantum+Cosmology
2001       11
2002       13
2003       21
2004       35

 

here are the links to get those numbers:

 

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2001/0/1

 

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2002/0/1

 

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2003/0/1

 

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2004/0/1

 

the search is imperfect and picks up some unintended stuff which is a significant percentage early on, in 2001 and 2002, but does not matter very much later.

 

WHAT DO YOU GUESS THE 2005 NUMBER WILL BE?

 

We will find it by using this link, anytime after January 1, 2006. Six months from now.

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2005/0/1

 

If there is very little Quantum Cosmology activity for the rest of this year then it will be in the 20s.

A bit more activity and it will be in the 30s. And so on.

 

I am curious as to who among us SFN folk are good guessers, so I'm making it a public poll (unless I goof with the set-up) and if someone has a particular number you are cordially invited to post it!

 

Personally I like the number 46.

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53 for me!

 

that was quick. thank you MacSwell, luc, Yourda! hope there will be more.

so far:

 

Guesser    Loop Quantum Cosmology papers on arxiv in 2005

luc           40-49
MacSwell      53
me            46
Yourda        40-49

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Guesser    keyword Loop+Quantum+Cosmology papers on arxiv in 2005

luc           40-49
MacSwell      53
me            46
Spyman        55
Yourda        40-49
YT2095        49 or less

 

 

here is the link that gives 2005 to date, of papers with keywords loop+quantum+cosmology in their title or abstract summary

 

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2005/0/1

 

I want to mention again that this search picks up some stray papers that happen to have all three keywords in their summary abstract at the beginning, even though aren't technically LQC papers. THAT'S OK, we are forecasting the gross number. I have to make this the rule because at the beginning I did not bother to filter out the stray "imposters" in the numbers I gave for past years.

 

If no one objects I would like to leave the poll open some more. People who predicted ranges (like 40-49) please consider narrowing it down to one number.

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Martin has gone poll crazy!

 

Put me down for a cool 107...

 

now I'm embarrassed. 107 is just too silly.

Do you think we should discard these polls, Severian?

I dont have any further ones in mind, but I personally think the ones we have are fairly interesting. What do you think?

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Severian, I have to go out, be back later. It might be good to close this poll and let it go dormant (we can dig it up later). Let me know if you have any preference.

 

that goes for everybody else who participated. Shall we close this one and leave it on the shelf until Jan 2006? or leave it open for people to ask questions, discuss the topic etc. if they want to.

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No, I was serious! Cosmology is entering a new phase. They have now done the basic stuff and will, on the next round of things, need to introduce some precision which means calculating loops.

 

I reckon there will be a lot of cosmology papers with loops soon, although they may not be LQG. Actually, the 'quantum' might scupper my 107 since I am relying on them not all being LQG, but if you look at your links there are quite a few in there which are not LQG.

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If no one objects I would like to leave the poll open some more. People who predicted ranges (like 40-49) please consider narrowing it down to one number.

 

mine was just going to be 49, but just posting "49" was too short a reply to be accepted by the VB code thingy.

so I thought I`de hedge my bets at the same time :)

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Oh thanks YT, more fun if people guess specific numbers. I think I will redo the list and order it by size of estimate, so that Severian gets to be at the top. I'm thinking it may be time to put a lock on this thread, since we already have a fair bunch of guesses.

 

Guesser    keyword Loop+Quantum+Cosmology papers on arxiv in 2005

Severian     107
Spyman        55
MacSwell      53
YT2095        49
me            46


Range estimates:
luc           40-49
Yourda        40-49

 

 

here is the link that gives 2005 to date, of papers with keywords loop+quantum+cosmology in their title or abstract summary

 

http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/abs:+AND+Cosmology+AND+Loop+Quantum/0/1/0/2005/0/1

 

I want to mention again that this search picks up some stray "imposter" papers that happen to have all three keywords in their summary abstract at the beginning, even though aren't technically LQC papers. THAT'S OK, we are forecasting the number of papers the search engine picks up. I dont want to have to read each paper to see if it meets some set of "genuine loop quantum cosmology" criteria.

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