There is a group of four prisoners, Al, Bill, Chuck, and Dick. After one year in prison, they have a chance to be released. It works as follows.
There is a room with a row of four boxes. Slips with the prisoners' names are randomly placed in the boxes, one per box.
Each prisoner enters the room, one at a time, checks one or two boxes of their choice, leaves the room without changing anything, and goes to his cell without any communication with other prisoners. Next prisoner enters the room. Etc.
If each prisoner finds his names in the boxes he checks, all four are released. If even one of them does not find his name, all four stay in prison for another year. A year later, they get this chance again. Of course, the slips are placed randomly again then.
How long are they expected to stay in prison? The calculation is straightforward. Each prisoner has 1/2 chance to find his name by checking two out of the four boxes. A chance that all four will find their names is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. Thus, they are statistically expected to stay in prison for 16 years.
It turned out that there is a strategy which shortens this time. Significantly. Down to 2-3 years!
What is the strategy?
No tricks. Pure strategy.
They can strategize only before entering the room.