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Orbital Decay

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What would happen if Jupiter's orbit started to decay? Would there be a point before which we'd feel no effect on Earth or would we experience something relatively soon (regardless of the relative positions of Earth and Jupiter in their orbits.)

Do we notice anything now, given the large variations in our relative distances? We orbit at 1 AU, and Jupiter's is about 5. So we range from 4 to 6 AU in separation.

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