Reading about Melissa's destructive force in Jamaica, I was wondering what projections and planning are being done on what storms of her intensity would do, if they started showing up on a regular basis in the US. The Post this morning describes the mechanism:

Part of the reason Melissa grew into such a mammoth storm had to do with the calm that preceded it. Until this one, the Caribbean had seen no major systems throughout this hurricane season.

And that meant sea surface temperatures in the top 10 percent of historical values along Melissa’s path served as latent fuels.

“All the hot water had been untapped all year,” said Phil Klotzbach a senior research scientist for the Department of Atmospheric Science in the Walter Scott Jr. College of Engineering at Colorado State University. “And, certainly, Melissa tapped a lot.” (....)

On the track the storm traversed, sea surface temperatures ranged from 86.5 to 87.7 degrees Fahrenheit — 1.9 to 2.8 degrees above average — well above the 80-degree temperatures needed to sustain tropical storms and hurricanes. But even more strikingly, the water hundreds of feet below the ocean surface was also near-record or record warm, meaning that the violent storm churned up warm waters from below — when they are usually much cooler.

The storm strengthened; its winds intensified.

“Hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the ocean and convert it to the kinetic energy of their winds,” Masters said. The warm waters in the Caribbean this late in the year were “made up to 700 times more likely because of human-caused climate change,” according to Climate Central.

Masters warned that meant storms like this would happen more frequently.

“We’re going to be seeing a lot more Melissas in the future and we’re definitely not ready for it,” he said.

It sounds like the landfall winds could have been over 190 mph.

The storm’s landfall wind speed of 185 mph ties the record for strongest winds at landfall in the Atlantic Ocean with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Dorian of 2019. But storm intensities are subject to review by the National Hurricane Center and could change. Meteorologist Andy Hazelton reviewed data that suggested Melissa might have been even stronger, besting Hurricane Allen’s record-high 190-mph winds in 1980.

So I went to NWS site (still up and running) and it describes such winds...

Hurricane winds - 130 to 160 mph gusts 170+ mph: Devastating damage is expected. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer.

* At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.

* The majority of industrial buildings will become non functional.

* Concrete block low rise apartments will sustain major damage, including some wall and roof failure.

* High rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously, a few to the point of total collapse. All windows will blow out. Airborne debris will be widespread and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles.

* The blown debris will create additional destruction. People, pets and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck.

* Power outages will last for weeks as most power poles will be down and transformers destroyed.

* Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards.

* The vast majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted.

So...how do you think, say, Miami could prepare for this? Is it even worth it, or should cities be moved inland?

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

Reading about Melissa's destructive force in Jamaica, I was wondering what projections and planning are being done on what storms of her intensity would do, if they started showing up on a regular basis in the US. The Post this morning describes the mechanism:

It sounds like the landfall winds could have been over 190 mph.

So I went to NWS site (still up and running) and it describes such winds...

Hurricane winds - 130 to 160 mph gusts 170+ mph: Devastating damage is expected. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer.

* At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.

* The majority of industrial buildings will become non functional.

* Concrete block low rise apartments will sustain major damage, including some wall and roof failure.

* High rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously, a few to the point of total collapse. All windows will blow out. Airborne debris will be widespread and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles.

* The blown debris will create additional destruction. People, pets and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck.

* Power outages will last for weeks as most power poles will be down and transformers destroyed.

* Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards.

* The vast majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted.

So...how do you think, say, Miami could prepare for this? Is it even worth it, or should cities be moved inland?

This is why the insurance companies are under no illusions that climate change is real. I understand that Jamaica has something called a catastrophe bond. They will need it.

As to your question, I expect the fate of Miami will be that of Galveston (which I have visited): A direct hit, monumental damage - and then a half-hearted recovery that knocks the heart out of the place as people move away.

1 minute ago, exchemist said:

As to your question, I expect the fate of Miami will be that of Galveston (which I have visited): A direct hit, monumental damage - and then a half-hearted recovery that knocks the heart out of the place as people move away.

I concur. Leaving aside inundation through rising sea levels, the only way to make non-capital buildings safe from such wind forces would be a total rebuild from the ground up.

Save on the demolition costs. Let the hurricane do it.

It depends on where it hits. I don’t think states all have the same level of preventative measures in place. Florida gets hit the most and has the highest incidence of areas with D and F ratings. The risk is to coastal and adjacent areas, and that’s basically all of Florida