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Will the Magnesium Carbonate buffer break in the ocean due to increasing atmospheric CO2, and if so When?


Chondrally

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I have carried out a multi-year study on ocean pH and have included all the relevant equations from Zeebe and Wolf-Gladrow's book 'CO2 in Seawater, Equilibrium, Kinetics' which contains the solubility product equations for CO2(2-),HCO2(-) and H2CO2 as well as for magnesium carbonate (magnesite) and calcium carbonate(both aragonite and calcite) buffers. I have included as much relevant chemistry in the analysis as I can including phosphorus and boron , chlorine and fluorine salts.
The pH equations I used are the SWS scale equations from Brookhaven National Lab which were made public by Ernie Lewis and Doug Wallace who are scientists there.
I projected the CO2 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere into the future, assuming continuing industrial development and population growth and urbanization and deforestation rates remain constant. I used the Mauna Kea data set for CO2 ppm, and used a Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo simulation to project CO2 into the future. With these CO2 levels, I was able to calculate the equilibrium year by year at the surface of the ocean and with the diffusion equations I was able to solve them to depth using temperature and salinity profiles that are publicly available.

This result showed me that the magnesium carbonate buffer would break in the ocean around 2021 over a 2 year period, and one of two things can happen. 1) When the buffer breaks, CO2 will well up from the depths, and the ocean will off-gas CO2 into the atmosphere causing atmospheric heating due to the green house gas, and more extreme weather events with the water cycle worldwide.
2) The ocean pH could drop by as much as 1 pH level to 7.2 from 8.2 worldwide. This , along with temperature heating in the ocean, could cause the demise of the krill and phytoplankton populations that have already been decimated since 1950 by 40% due to pollution and temperature changes.
If this happens, the base of the food chain in the ocean could be at serious risk of collapse and with it , all life in the ocean. This would eventually ripple onto land food chains and might cause a collapse over the entire earth of the ecosystem food chain. This is a serious probability..

I believe both of these effects will happen to greater and lesser degree simultaneously and at different places in the worlds oceans when the ppm reaches 490 ppm approximately around 2021.
We need to act now with new technology that generates energy without emitting CO2.
I believe an efficient natural gas-solar hybrid engine that emits no CO2 and is very fuel efficient is possible
Please see the following links for more information:

Under Science Forums at TheNakedScientists.com, in Technology section the question : Can we build an efficient hybrid natural gas-solar engine that emits no CO2?

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Edited by imatfaal
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